Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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603 FXUS61 KALY 040548 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions through this evening across eastern New York and western New England. An arctic cold front moves through tomorrow bringing scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and isolated snow squalls during the late morning and early afternoon hours. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with just a low chance of snow showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: - Increasing potential for scattered snow squalls and gusty winds tomorrow associated with an Arctic cold front. - In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures will take hold tomorrow night into Friday. Discussion: For the rest of today, dry conditions continue with increasing cloudiness from the west as surface high pressure heads east. A quick moving upper level trough from our north moves through tonight and tomorrow bringing chances for lake effect snow showers and snow squalls. Ahead of an approaching arctic cold front tomorrow, lake effect snow showers reach into Herkimer and Hamilton counties bringing light snowfall accumulations between 1 to 2 inches. Confidence continues to increase for the potential of snow squalls to develop to our west and move eastward into the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital District, and Lake George-Saratoga region late tomorrow morning and early afternoon. How far east these snow squalls could reach is still fluctuating with high resolution forecast model guidances. Nevertheless, be prepared tomorrow for quickly changing traveling conditions due to these gusty snow showers. Winds will be breezy tomorrow as the front moves through and behind it for the late afternoon and early evening hours with the current forecast supporting 25-35 mph. Similar to the previous forecast, there could be stronger gusts as winds aloft are stronger and if they mix down from above the surface it could contribute to over 35 mph. Winds decrease as the upper level trough quickly heads east late tomorrow afternoon and evening with dry conditions returning. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow before the arctic cold front range in the teens and 20s. There won`t be too much fluctuation with the temperatures ahead of this front due to the clouds overhead helping keep them from becoming colder. Behind the front is a different story due to clearing skies and recent snowpack, temperatures are forecasted to decrease significantly from the teens/20s to the single digits and teens. With the breezy winds too, it`s going to feel even colder outside with feels-like temperatures in the single digits and negative 5 to 15 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: - High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through early next week. As of 1:45 PM...The forecast for the long term is still on track from the previous shift, see the discussion below for more details. Discussion: High pressure builds in from the west Thu night, although there will still be a bit of a breeze into the evening. Once temperatures cool considerably with the high moving overhead later at night into early Fri morning, the winds should become near calm. So while bitterly cold temperatures are anticipated(especially with a fresh snow pack), the lack of overlap with winds should preclude issuance of any Cold Weather Advisories at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Low temperatures range from 0 to -5F in the higher terrain to 0 to 5F in lower elevations. This will be the first frigid air mass of the season. Dry conditions will persist on Fri, with temperatures "warming" into the upper 10s to mid 20s as high pressure shifts east off the coast. A storm system is expected to track well south of the region across the southern mid Atlantic region Fri night. Most guidance has snow suppressed to our south with just a 20% chance from the NBM south of Albany. Tempertures will remain chilly, but not as cold as Thu night. Below normal temperatures are favored to continue over the weekend and through early next week. A weak disturbance may bring a few light snow showers to areas west of the Hudson Valley on Sat. Then another Arctic cold front is expected to move through late Sun into Sun night. So temperatures will plunge to well below normal levels again Mon into Tue. A clipper system may bring some snow on Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...An Arctic cold front will move southeast across the area this afternoon. Scattered snow showers and squalls will accompany the front. Will continue to mention PROB30 for any snow squalls which should be brief lasting around 20 minutes or less. Time frame looks to be between 16z-21z from KGFL to KALB to KPSF. The squalls should weaken prior to reaching KPOU. Mainly VFR conditions will occur through the 24 hour TAF period, but brief IFR/LIFR vsby and MVFR cigs are possible within the snow squalls. Also a few hour period of MVFR cigs may occur at KGFL after 12z this morning. Skies will clear later this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming west-northwest and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt developing. Gusts of 30-40 kt are also likely with any snow squalls. Winds will decrease to 10-15 kt this evening. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05/07 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...07