603
FXUS61 KALY 040548
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1248 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through this evening across eastern New York and
western New England. An arctic cold front moves through
tomorrow bringing scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and
isolated snow squalls during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air
mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry
conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue into the
weekend, with just a low chance of snow showers mainly west of
the Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing potential for scattered snow squalls and gusty
  winds tomorrow associated with an Arctic cold front.

- In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures will
  take hold tomorrow night into Friday.

Discussion:

For the rest of today, dry conditions continue with increasing
cloudiness from the west as surface high pressure heads east. A
quick moving upper level trough from our north moves through
tonight and tomorrow bringing chances for lake effect snow
showers and snow squalls. Ahead of an approaching arctic cold
front tomorrow, lake effect snow showers reach into Herkimer and
Hamilton counties bringing light snowfall accumulations between
1 to 2 inches. Confidence continues to increase for the
potential of snow squalls to develop to our west and move
eastward into the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater
Capital District, and Lake George-Saratoga region late tomorrow
morning and early afternoon. How far east these snow squalls
could reach is still fluctuating with high resolution forecast
model guidances. Nevertheless, be prepared tomorrow for quickly
changing traveling conditions due to these gusty snow showers.
Winds will be breezy tomorrow as the front moves through and
behind it for the late afternoon and early evening hours with
the current forecast supporting 25-35 mph. Similar to the
previous forecast, there could be stronger gusts as winds aloft
are stronger and if they mix down from above the surface it
could contribute to over 35 mph. Winds decrease as the upper
level trough quickly heads east late tomorrow afternoon and
evening with dry conditions returning.

Temperatures tonight and tomorrow before the arctic cold front
range in the teens and 20s. There won`t be too much fluctuation
with the temperatures ahead of this front due to the clouds
overhead helping keep them from becoming colder. Behind the
front is a different story due to clearing skies and recent
snowpack, temperatures are forecasted to decrease significantly
from the teens/20s to the single digits and teens. With the
breezy winds too, it`s going to feel even colder outside with
feels-like temperatures in the single digits and negative 5 to
15 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

As of 1:45 PM...The forecast for the long term is still on
track from the previous shift, see the discussion below for
more details.

Discussion:

High pressure builds in from the west Thu night, although there
will still be a bit of a breeze into the evening. Once
temperatures cool considerably with the high moving overhead
later at night into early Fri morning, the winds should become
near calm. So while bitterly cold temperatures are
anticipated(especially with a fresh snow pack), the lack of
overlap with winds should preclude issuance of any Cold Weather
Advisories at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Low
temperatures range from 0 to -5F in the higher terrain to 0 to
5F in lower elevations. This will be the first frigid air mass
of the season. Dry conditions will persist on Fri, with
temperatures "warming" into the upper 10s to mid 20s as high
pressure shifts east off the coast.

A storm system is expected to track well south of the region
across the southern mid Atlantic region Fri night. Most guidance
has snow suppressed to our south with just a 20% chance from
the NBM south of Albany. Tempertures will remain chilly, but
not as cold as Thu night.

Below normal temperatures are favored to continue over the
weekend and through early next week. A weak disturbance may
bring a few light snow showers to areas west of the Hudson
Valley on Sat. Then another Arctic cold front is expected to
move through late Sun into Sun night. So temperatures will
plunge to well below normal levels again Mon into Tue. A clipper
system may bring some snow on Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...An Arctic cold front will move southeast
across the area this afternoon. Scattered snow showers and
squalls will accompany the front. Will continue to mention
PROB30 for any snow squalls which should be brief lasting around
20 minutes or less. Time frame looks to be between 16z-21z from
KGFL to KALB to KPSF. The squalls should weaken prior to
reaching KPOU. Mainly VFR conditions will occur through the 24
hour TAF period, but brief IFR/LIFR vsby and MVFR cigs are
possible within the snow squalls. Also a few hour period of MVFR
cigs may occur at KGFL after 12z this morning. Skies will clear
later this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in from
the west. Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt,
becoming west-northwest and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts of
25-35 kt developing. Gusts of 30-40 kt are also likely with any
snow squalls. Winds will decrease to 10-15 kt this evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05/07
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07