Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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494 FXUS61 KALY 041857 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 157 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered snow showers and isolated squalls continue through this afternoon and into this evening as an arctic cold front tracks through the region. Conditions get very cold tonight behind the front and remain below normal through the next seven days as conditions alternate between tranquil and unsettled. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: - Gusty winds through this afternoon may cause isolated power outages from downing trees and wires. - Very cold temperatures tonight across eastern New York and western New England, but diminishing wind gusts will largely keep feel-like temperatures above Cold Weather Advisory Criteria. Discussion: The passage of an arctic cold front is underway with scattered snow showers ongoing throughout much of the region. A couple of snow squalls have occurred within the Mohawk Valley and Greater Capital District along/near the I-90 corridor over the past couple hours, but a general weakening trend in latest radar scans and few similar observations upstream indicate that the window for squall activity is rapidly closing. In fact, SPC Mesoanalysis supports this thinking with the indication of the greatest moisture intersecting the DGZ and the greatest 925 mb FGEN as being positioned to the north of the current location of the front which can now be beautifully seen via visible satellite as a boundary of more extensive cloud cover sliding through the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and Berkshires. Gusty winds have been noted across much of the area along and behind the front, especially within stronger showers and squalls where rapid dynamic cooling has contributed to strengthening downward momentum transfer. Deep mixing behind the front will allow for gusty winds to continue, particularly for the higher terrain of the Eastern Catskills and Berkshires as well as within the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region where the northwesterly direction will favor channeling. Wind gust magnitudes are anticipated to reach around 30 to nearly 40 mph with possible isolated gusts up to 45 mph, so we once again held off on any short-fused Wind Advisories. The greatest impact from gusty winds will be to cause areas of blowing snow and subsequent reduced visibility within any lasting snow showers through this evening. That said, isolated power outages resulting from downed trees and wires cannot be ruled out. Snow showers linger through this evening, primarily as strong cold air advection drives lake effect bands to drift south and east across the Southwest Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, and even as far as the Capital District. Upslope snow showers will also be common in the Southern Green Mountains. Snow accumulations in these areas, and any other areas that receive a passing shower, will be on the light side, ranging from about 1-3" in the Southwest Adirondacks to a couple tenths to an inch elsewhere. However, as high pressure swiftly builds into the region in the wake of the front, increased subsidence will swiftly bring an end to any showers by tonight. Decreasing cloud cover will then pair with strong cold air advection and fresh snowpack to drive a significant radiational drop in temperatures to the coldest values we have seen thus far this season. That said, lows are anticipated to be widely in the low single digits to about 5 degrees below zero outside of the Southwest Adirondacks and portions of the western Mohawk Valley where values ranging from -6 to -15 will be common. The good news is that the building high will also bring a rapid decline in wind speeds so these cold lows will not feel much worse due to wind chills. And, in coordination with our neighbors, have held off on any Cold Weather Advisories due to confidence in remaining above criteria. It is important to note, however, that low temperatures tonight will be close to the record lows for December 5th. In fact, all climate sites are currently forecast to beat the record low except for KGFL who is currently forecast to tie the existing record. See the Climate Section below for additional details. With high pressure in place tomorrow, dry surface conditions will persist, but as will the cold. High temperatures will only rebound into the tens and 20s tomorrow. Low temperatures tomorrow night will feel balmy in comparison to tonight`s, as increased cloud cover from a passing disturbance to our south will mitigate reaching the full potential of radiative cooling. Values will reach the single digits across the Southwest Adirondacks and portions of the Southern Greens and 10s to low 20s elsewhere. Saturday, at least much of the day, will also remain dry as the aforementioned high begins to depart to the east. Highs will moderate a bit with values anticipated to reach the upper 20s to upper 30s, but these remain below normal for early December. Saturday afternoon/evening, the probability of precipitation increases once again as a low pressure system tracking through the Hudson Bay extends a series of fronts to the south and west. As this is a fairly moisture-starved disturbance, most of the resulting showers will be confined to areas along and north of I-90 where lake adjacency and orographic lift will support requisite moisture advection and forcing to generate and maintain snow showers. Accumulations will again be very minimal. Lows Saturday night will largely be in the tens to low 20s. High pressure builds back in across the region beginning early Sunday, forcing the return to dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Highs Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended period will continue the alternating trend of tranquil and disturbed conditions with a series of clipper systems. The first comes Sunday night when an upper-level shortwave drifts eastward off the Great Lakes. This is probably going to be the system to watch in the long term period, as some of the latest medium- range models are indicating the potential, though low, for Advisory-level snowfall (>4") across a large portion of our area. While NBM probabilities are low (10-20%) concerning this, it certainly isn`t out of the realm of possibility should a developing area of low pressure beneath the shortwave take on a coastal component like the GFS and ECMWF indicate. But this is also a rather progressive system, so that could pose a hindrance in accumulating moderate snowfall totals. High pressure builds in for Monday, forcing the return to dry conditions regardless of the result of the system of the previous night. But additional disturbances look to put an end to tranquility Tuesday night and Wednesday night. There is a vast amount of uncertainty in the clipper for Tuesday night with most sources of guidance really punting the potential for something to impact our area to Wednesday night, but we will continue to monitor trends. Likewise, despite a little bit more model consistency, there is a good deal of uncertainty for the system Wednesday. However, there`s actually higher probabilities for Advisory-level snow with this system than there is for the Sunday night disturbance with the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens outlined for 30-40% likelihood. We will keep an eye on this system as well, but will keep the long term focus on the system for Sunday night as this has the least amount of lead time at this point. Temperatures will remain below normal by early December standards through the long term period with highs in the 10s and 20s Monday and Tuesday, moderating to the upper 20s to upper 30s Wednesday. Lows will start cold with values Sunday in the single digits to 10s and Monday a couple degrees below zero to single digits. Tuesday night and Wednesday night will see a moderation to the 10s and 20s. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Friday... Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. && .CLIMATE... Record lows for December 5th: Site: Record Low (Year) Forecast Low tonight KGFL -6F (1989) -6F KALB 2F (1989) 0F KPOU 7F (1966, 1989) 4F KPSF 0F (1926) -5F && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...33 CLIMATE...35