998
FXUS61 KALY 302359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
659 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions continue with rain and snow showers through
this evening. A brief break tomorrow before a coastal storm
system brings widespread snowfall to eastern New York and
western New England Tuesday morning into Tuesday night. Very
cold temperatures move in Friday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Winter Weather Advisory for the western Adirondacks through 1
   AM tonight for 4-8" of total snowfall amounts.

Discussion:

A weather system continues to move through this evening bringing
light rain and snow showers outside of the western Adirondacks.
Latest surface observations continue to support for light
accumulations of a trace to up to 0.05 inches. For the western
Adirondacks, a winter weather advisory continues through 1 AM
tonight as moderate bands of snow continue to move through this
evening bringing additional 1 to 3 inches of snowfall on top of
what has already fallen. A surface high pressure system moves
in for tomorrow bringing dry conditions. High temperatures range
in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Tuesday morning
   through Tuesday night with 50% chance for accumulating
   snowfall amounts over 7 inches.

Discussion:

Beginning Tuesday morning, precipitation begins to move in from
the south as a coastal storm moves northeastward. Ensemble
forecast models are still in good agreement for the surface low
pressure system to develop along the Atlantic Coast and move
northward. However, there are two different scenarios based on
latest ensemble forecast members that could happen with the
center of the low with the latest forecast supporting scenario
number one for Tuesday.

Scenario number one: The center of the low moves closer to the
coast for widespread snowfall amounts between 4 to 8 inches
from Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. With collaboration of
neighboring offices and WPC, winter storm watches have been
issued for eastern New York and western New England with the
exception of northern Herkimer and southern Litchfield counties.
Latest probabilities range between 50 and 70 percent for
greater than 6 inches of snowfall from the eastern Catskills to
the Berkshires and southern Vermont. For the Mid-Hudson Valley
into the Litchfield Hills, a mix of rain and snow could occur
which trends snowfall amounts to be lower. This is due to warmer
air above the surface being closer to the coast and helping
contribute to this line of mix rain/snow. Forecast confidence is
low for southern Litchfield county which is why it is currently
left out of the watch as confidence continues to support a more
rain/snow scenario than all snow and low snowfall totals.

Scenario number two: The center of the low stays further east
and off the coast for the lower end of snowfall amounts,
especially locations north and west of Albany which would remain
relatively dry. Locations south and east would still see
accumulating snowfall during the daytime Tuesday, but the
amounts would be lower between a trace to 2 inches. While this
scenario is not favored by the latest forecast, it has low
chances of occurring for Tuesday.

Nevertheless, we are looking at an impactful morning and
evening commute across eastern New York and western New England.
Allow extra time when traveling as roads become snow covered
and visibilities can be quickly reduced due to the falling
snow. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, precipitation winds down
as the low heads eastward and drier conditions return for
Wednesday. Our next low to medium chances for accumulating
snowfall returns Thursday as a low pressure system from the
north moves through. Associated with that low is an arctic front
that is currently forecasted to move through Thursday night.
Very cold temperatures begin Friday morning with lows ranging
negative five degrees to 10 degrees. High temperatures Friday
range in the single digits to low 20s in the valleys.
Temperatures become more seasonal for Saturday with highs in
the 30s and lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z/Tue...A cold front will move across the region
tonight with some isolated to scattered showers mainly north of
KALB. IFR stratus will linger for KPSF a few more hours with
intervals of MVFR stratus at KALB/KGFL/KPOU until 05Z/Mon with
cigs 1-2.5 kft AGL. The cigs should rise after 06Z/Mon to VFR
levels except at KGFL/KPSF where high MVFR cigs 2.5-3.0 kft AGL
will linger at those sites until around 12Z/Mon. Expect
improving conditions to widespread VFR levels with mostly clear
skies by the late morning in the wake of the cold front.

LLWS will continue to be an issue at all the TAF sites until
about 05Z/Mon with 2 kft AGL winds 30-40 KT and sfc winds less
than 10 KT at times. The south/southwest winds will veer to the
southwest/west at 8-15 KT around midnight and continue from the
southwest to west 10-15 KT until the late morning when they will
become northwesterly 10-15 KT with gusts around 20-25 KT. The
winds will diminish to less than 10 KT after 21Z/Mon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Thursday Night to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for NYZ033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ032-033.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15/05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...15