869
FXUS61 KALY 211843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
143 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively tranquil weather expected through early next week,
with just some light showers tonight near I-84 and some light
rain and snow showers Sunday night into Monday for areas along
and north of I-90. Then, Tuesday through Thursday will feature
better chances for some rain/showers. Temperatures will
generally be near to slightly below normal through the weekend,
then trend above normal for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1:40 PM EST...GOES 16 WV imagery currently shows a weak
uper shortwave tracking to the northeast of our region, around
the periphery of an upper low sitting to the north of the Great
Lakes. While the radar is quiet this afternoon, most areas are
seeing fairly widespread cloud cover that has helped to hold
temperatures in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). Portions of
the Mid Hudson Valley have seen some downsloping off the
Catskills, which has lead to a few more breaks of clouds and
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures should rise a
couple to a few more degrees from current levels for daytime
highs this afternoon.

This evening and tonight...As the upper low drifts eastwards
over Quebec, a weak cold front will track across the region.
Moisture looks limited, but a few very light rain/snow showers
are possible ahead of the front this evening across the ADKs. At
the same time, another upper shortwave will be tracking out of
the Ohio Valley towards our region, with an associated weak wave
of low pressure at the surface passing to our south. While most
of the precip (rain) associated with this system will remain to
our south, there will be a band of mid-level FGEN on the N/NW
side of the sfc low and favorable upper jet dynamics that may
allow for some showers to spread into Ulster, Dutchess, and
Litchfield Counties. For these areas, light showers will be
possible late tonight with rainfall amounts of under 0.1". For
the rest of the region, abundant mid-level dry air should result
in dry conditions with a fairly sharp cutoff on the northern
side of the precip shield. However, our region will see fairly
widespread cloud cover that will help to keep temperatures
generally in the 30s, except in the upper 20s to 30s for the
ADKs and possibly southern Greens.

Saturday and Saturday night...Any lingering showers come to an
end by early to mid-morning for our southern areas as the sfc
low and upper shortwave continue to move off to the east. While
yet another upper shortwave will track across our northern areas
Saturday afternoon on the back side of the upper low, there will
be very little moisture to work with, so mainly dry conditions
are expected through the day. Rising heights aloft and high
pressure building in from the west will continue to promote
subsidence and dry conditions Saturday night. With skies
clearing and winds becoming calm, conditions are favorable for
radiational cooling, although we may see some increasing high
clouds late ahead of a clipper system. Nevertheless, we
collaborated with neighboring WFOs to undercut NBM lows, with
10s to 20s for most of the region.

Sunday through Monday...An amplifying upper shortwave will track
to our north Sunday and Sunday night, and transition from a
positive to neutral tilt as it does so. At the sfc, an area of
low pressure/clipper system will also track just north of the
International Border. This will bring increasing chances for
some rain/snow showers Sunday. Best chance for rain/snow is
along/north of I-90, especially in the high terrain. With
daytime highs in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys), any
accumulation will be mainly limited to the higher elevation
areas of the ADKs and southern Greens. Here, up to an inch or
two of snow is possible. Timing generally looks to be Sunday
afternoon and night, although lingering lake effect snow showers
will be possible for the typical western areas Sunday night into
Monday AM as 850 mb temps drop to around -4 to -6C and flow
turns to the northwest. Some upslope snow showers will also be
possible in the southern Greens/northern Berkshires as well.
Lingering snow showers end early Monday morning as high pressure
at the surface builds over the Great Lakes/western NY, and
ridging aloft amplifies to our west.

The other story Sunday night into Monday will be gusty winds,
thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between the incoming
high and the departing clipper system. We collaborated with
neighboring offices to bump up winds from the NBM, with gusts of
25-35 mph possible Sunday night and Monday in the cold
advection regime, especially where flow is channeled down the
Mohawk River Valley, through the Capital District, and into the
Berkshires. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 20s to 30s,
with highs Monday in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

    - Gradual warming trend Monday into Wednesday with highs by
      Wednesday in the upper 40s and 50s.

    - Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday into Wednesday
      with an unsettled weather pattern developing.

Discussion:

Monday night, ridging aloft and at the surface builds overhead,
which should allow for winds to diminish. Lows drop into the 20s
for most areas, and could end up below the current forecast by a
few to several degrees if we remain cloud free.

Tuesday through Thursday ...Our next weather system takes shape
as a amplified upper trough or upper low and associated
occluded sfc cyclone track into the northern Plains. They
system`s warm front will lift northwards through our region
sometime Tuesday evening into Wednesday (exact timing still
remains uncertain). This will bring increasing precipitation
chances to the region. While most areas will see plain rain,
some wet snow or a wintry mix will be briefly possible as
precipitation begins for the high terrain north of I-90. The
system`s cold front then looks to bring additional chances for
showers on Wednesday or Wednesday night. While timing remains
somewhat uncertain, we are leading towards a more progressive
scenario more in line with the CMC/Euro, as the GFS appears to
be a slower outlier with the cold frontal passage, likely due to
the fact that it closes off the upper low quicker. Regardless,
but the end of the long-term period, we see a much colder
airmass move into the region behind the cold front. This could
lead to chances for some lake effect snow for western areas, but
obviously there is considerable uncertainty in timing, amounts,
and location of any lake effect snow this far in advance.
Temperatures will generally run above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, then drop back to below normal behind the mid-week
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...BKN-OVC cigs should prevail through much
of the 24 hour TAF period, with low level moisture trapped
beneath a persistent inversion. A weak cold front will pass
through tonight. Cig heights will mainly be close to VFR/MVFR
thresholds around 3000-3500 ft AGL. Will mention prevailing VFR
at most sites except MVFR cigs at higher elevation site KPSF.
Some brief periods of MVFR cigs may occur at KALB/KPOU/KGFL, but
should generally remain AOA 3000 ft AGL. There is a low
probability for a passing light shower at KPOU, so included a
PROB30 from 08z-14z Saturday. Other sites will remain dry,
although BKN-OVC cigs should persist. Winds will be south-
southwest around 5-8 kt, becoming less than 5 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...07