897
FXUS61 KALY 032333
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dewpoints lowered some tomorrow blending the MAVMOS with NBM.

Increased wind/wind gusts Thu-Thu night with the frontal passage
and lowered PoPs early Thu night before increasing again Fri.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather expected through
Wednesday.

2) A cold front will bring chances for some beneficial showers
Thursday, followed by additional chances for rain Fri into the
weekend with the greatest probabilities south and east of the
Capital District.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As of 1:24 PM EST...The surface high pressure has moved east
offshore into the Atlantic, with an axis of upper-level ridging
positioned just to the west of eastern New York and western New
England. This ridging continues to bring above normal
temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the upper 50s and
lower 60s in higher terrain and nearly reaching 70 degrees in
the Mid-Hudson Valley. Moisture has been steadily increasing
throughout the day, with ensemble anomalies for precipitable
water values reaching +2 to +3 STDEV above normal into tonight.
Radar has showed some light showers over the northern
Adirondacks throughout the late morning and early afternoon
today, which likely are forming due to upsloping as there is
minimal forcing at this time. Much of this rain may not be
reaching the ground, as observations are barely reaching 0.05
inches across a few sites in the northern Adirondacks.
Temperatures overnight will remain mild, only dropping into the
mid 40s to lower 50s. There is potential for some patchy
fog/mist to develop overnight in the Mid-Hudson Valley as
dewpoints increase and skies partially clear.

The aforementioned axis of an upper-level ridge will move
directly overhead tomorrow, bringing the highest temperatures of
the week. Current guidance continues to show 850 mb ensemble
anomalies reaching +1 to +2 STDEV above normal and 850 mb
temperatures ranging from about 12 to 15 degrees C. High
temperatures are expected to reach into the lower to mid 70s in
our valley regions tomorrow, while higher terrain will see
temperatures more in the upper 60s. Southerly flow will persist
throughout the day and advect in more moisture, allowing dew
points to gradually rise. Breezier conditions are also expected,
with wind gusts up to 10-15 kts in the afternoon and evening,
particularly in the N/S oriented valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Region into
southeast Canada Wed night into Thu morning, as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front brings a round of
showers to the region initially before daybreak to the
west/southwest Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley, and
then across the rest of eastern NY into western New England in
the late morning through the afternoon. PWATS rise to 1 to 3
STDEVs above normal based on latest NAEFS with the actual values
1-1.5". The low-level convergence increases along the front for
the showers. It will become breezy. The better upper level
forcing is west of the Hudson River Valley. The latest 24-hr NBM
probabilities >0.25" rainfall are in the 60-95% range for the
period ending 06Z/1 AM Fri are situated across the
west/southwest Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, western Mohawk
Valley and the southern Greens. Probabilities are generally
20-50% for rest of the region with the lowest south and east of
the Capital District. The probs remain high in the 50-60% range
for greater than 0.50" rainfall for the same 24-hr time frame
ending 06Z/1 am Fri for the west/southwest Adirondacks. Most
locations will receive about a tenth of an inch of rain, which
will be the most widespread measurable rainfall in close to 20
days for the region. Low temps will be Wed night in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Max temps on Thu will still run above normal in
the mid 60s to around 70F in the valleys and upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s over the higher terrain.

The initial cold front settles south of the region and stalls
with some light showers Thu night early on, as a positively-
tilted mid and upper level trough sets-up over the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region. A wave of low pressure develops along the
frontal boundary south of the region and potentially brings
additional periods of rain Fri-Fri night. The location of the
front and the track of the wave still show some variability
based on the medium range guidance and ensembles. The latest NBM
has 24-hr probabilities > 1" of rain by 12Z/7 am Sat in the
40-60% range across most of western New England, the southern
Taconics and the mid Hudson Valley. The highest probs are over
Litchfield County, CT and near I-84. Lighter amounts are
possible north and west. The track of the wave will make the
difference where moderate to locally heavy rainfall falls. The
rain will be beneficial due to the recent dry spell and hydro
issues are not anticipated at this time. Friday will be the last
day of temps about 10 degrees above normal with highs in the
mid 50s to mid/upper 60s.

A closed/cutoff upper low looks to settle over NY and New
England for scattered showers and cool conditions for the
weekend based on the NBM/ensembles and medium range
deterministic guidance. Temps trend near to slightly below
normal for the close of the weekend. The cooler and unsettled
weather looks to continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with mainly
mid- level clouds. As the mid level clouds erode after midnight
and skies become mostly clear, some patchy ground fog/low clouds
may develop, with the best chance for IFR/LIFR conditions
around sunrise at KPSF, although some low probabilities also
exist for KGFL, KALB and KPOU. Any fog/low clouds should lift
12Z-14Z/Wed, with VFR conditions then returning for most of
Wednesday. Light/variable winds overnight will become south to
southwest at 5-10 KT by Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15/23
AVIATION...24