474
FXUS61 KALY 230817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
317 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system arrives from the north bringing chances of
snow showers and flurries to eastern New York and western New
England today. Dry conditions return tomorrow. A gradual warming
trend for midweek with chances for precipitation returning
Tuesday into Thanksgiving. Colder temperatures return Thursday
continuing through the end of the week. Lake effect snow showers
chances increase Friday for the Mohawk Valley and western
Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An approaching weather system from the northwest brings low to
medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in the western
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley this morning. By this afternoon,
chances increase to 50-70% for the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley as the weather system moves further eastward into
New York. Snowfall amounts range from a light dusting to over 2
inches in the highest terrain locations (and below advisory
criteria of greater than 4 inches). For the Mohawk Valley,
temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers during the
morning hours but as we head into this afternoon with
temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers transition
over to light rain showers. High resolution model guidances are
still fluctuating on how far south precipitation goes. Continued
mention of low to medium chances for snow/rain shower activity
into the eastern Catskills, Capital District region and
Berkshires for this afternoon into tonight for very light
accumulations of over a trace. For along the spine of the
southern Greens, low to medium chances for snow shower activity
continues as the weather system heads northward with moisture
lingering longer at higher elevations. 24 hour total snowfall
amounts range between 1 to 4 inches for elevations above 1500
feet for the southern Greens. With precipitation going to be
light, accumulations are less than 0.05 inches outside of the
Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks, and southern Greens where
precipitation amounts range between 0.05 and 0.15 inches. The
weather system heads northward and dry conditions return for
Monday with brief upper level ridging overhead. Highs today and
Monday range in the 30s and 40s. Low temperatures range in the
20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

  - Gradual warming trend into Wednesday with highs ranging in
    the upper 40s and upper 50s.

  - Chances for light rain showers increase Tuesday into
    Wednesday with an unsettled weather pattern into the end of
    the week.

  - Colder temperatures return Friday with increasing confidence
    for Lake Effect snow showers into Saturday.

Discussion:

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cold overnight low temperatures into
Tuesday morning continue with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Latest
ensemble cluster analysis members are in good agreement for an upper
level trough to dig across the Great Lakes region for Tuesday into
Wednesday as the upper level ridge heads eastward Tuesday afternoon.
Latest forecast supports that Tuesday morning starts out dry, with
chances for rain showers increasing during the afternoon hours from
15 to 50%. Temperatures gradually increase to above freezing during
the morning hours and remain above freezing through the daytime
across eastern New York and western New England with highs ranging
in the 40s. As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning,
high terrain locations could see a mix of rain/snow as temperatures
fluctuate between 30 and 34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures remain
above freezing for the overnight hours and gradually warm into the
upper 40s and 50s for Wednesday as warmer air from the south fills.
The latest forecast supports a brief lull in the chances for
precipitation Wednesday morning. Chances for light precipitation
increase between 40-60% for Wednesday afternoon and evening. As
overcast skies continue for Wednesday, a dreary day in store. A cold
front moves through Wednesday night bringing a return to seasonal
temperatures with lows into Thanksgiving morning in the 20s and
30s.

Thanksgiving through Saturday: The current forecast supports
low to medium chances for lingering rain/snow shower activity
through the morning hours Thursday with drier conditions favored
to return from south to north across eastern New York and
western New England during the afternoon and evening hours.
Latest ensemble model guidances continue to support the upper
level trough to move overhead Thursday into Friday. Breezy
conditions are favored for the afternoon hours Thursday,
especially in valley locations. High temperatures range in the
30s and 40s. As the upper level trough is strongly supported by
ensemble forecast model guidances to dig further south and east
Friday, lake effect snow showers kick off of Lake Ontario that
could reach across the western Adirondacks, the Mohawk Valley,
and eastern Catskills Friday through Saturday. With the strong
agreement, our confidence continues to increase for these
locations to see lake effect snow shower activity during this
timeframe. However, amounts will greatly depend on where the
snow showers persist the longest and the direction of the winds.
Associated with the upper level trough is a colder airmass that
stays overhead Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are
favored to be below normal with lows in the teens and 20s and
highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday, VFR conditions through 14Z/Sun, although
there is a slight chance for some ground fog and brief IFR Vsbys
at KGFL during this time. Thereafter, an approaching upper level
disturbance and weak low pressure system will bring increasing
clouds this morning, with scattered snow showers developing at
KALB, KPSF and KGFL between 15Z-17Z/Sun and continuing through
at least 22Z-24Z/Sun. Some rain may mix in at KALB toward
22Z/Sun. Showers will be more frequent at KGFL and KPSF, with
periods of IFR Vsbys and MVFR/IFR Cigs at these locations. At
KALB, Cigs should lower to MVFR this afternoon, with Vsbys
varying between VFR and MVFR/IFR as snow/rain showers pass
through. Scattered rain/snow showers may linger through early
this evening at KALB and KPSF with MVFR Cigs lingering through
midnight. As the snow showers taper off, there could be fog
developing at KGFL after 00Z/Mon.

Light/variable winds will become south to southwest and increase
to 5-10 KT later this morning through this afternoon, then shift
into the west at similar speeds after 00Z/Mon, with a few gusts
up to 15-20 KT possible overnight at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...24