833
FXUS61 KALY 032332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm conditions will continue through tomorrow along
with a southerly breeze. An approaching cold front will bring
showers and a few thunderstorms to the area late tomorrow
afternoon into early Friday morning. Mainly dry weather returns
for the rest of Friday before another system and cold front
brings another round of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms
on Saturday. Behind this front, tranquil weather and below
normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message

 - A beneficial rainfall is expected late tomorrow afternoon
   into early Friday morning.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure continues to slide off to the east as an
upper level shortwave passes across the region. The cold pool
aloft from the shortwave has allowed for quite a bit of diurnal
cumulus to develop. Sky cover was increased from the NBM for the
remainder of the day with a partly/mostly sunny sky for valley
areas and partly/mostly cloudy sky for the higher elevations.
Enough instability has developed for some higher terrain rain
showers, especially across the Adirondacks. Additional isolated
showers could develop in other higher terrain areas this
afternoon before activity wanes this evening as the shortwave
departs and we lose daytime heating. Otherwise, it will be a
seasonably warm afternoon with highs mainly in the 70s to near
80. Weak ridging overnight will result in a mostly clear night
which will promote more ideal radiational cooling conditions
with light to calm winds. Temperatures will fall back to the
mid-40s to mid-50s. Patchy fog will likely develop in the
typical locals.

On Thursday, another upper level shortwave rounding the base of
a vertically-stacked upper level low over Ontario will approach
western New York by the afternoon hours. This will also send a
surface cold front eastward toward the region. The day will
start out dry with some sun and temperatures rising into the
lower 70s to lower 80s. Surface winds will begin to increase in
the mid to late morning hours out of the south with gusts on the
order of 20 to 30 mph. A few localized gusts to 35 mph could
occur along the Hudson Valley. An area of rain showers ahead of
the cold front will begin to reach western areas (i.e. southern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley) between 4-6pm and track
eastward through Thursday evening. Weak instability present
(CAPE values up to 750 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 30 kt) could
support a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms before
activity decreases in intensity as it shifts toward the Hudson
Valley toward sunset. Rain showers will continue to slowly
progress eastward through Thursday night and begin to depart to
the north and east by Friday morning. The most beneficial
rainfall will occur for areas around the Capital District and
points north and west where amounts between 0.40 and 1.00 inches
could occur. Lesser rainfall is expected for areas farther
south and east. With the clouds and rain, it will not be as cool
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

On Friday, the cold front will begin to wash out over the
region. A few showers could linger into the early part of the
day but most areas will turn out dry with limited forcing over
the area. There will still be a southerly breeze but not as
breezy as Thursday. Highs once again will reach the lower 70s to
lower 80s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Another round of rainfall and thunderstorms is expected on
  Saturday. A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are
  also possible, especially for areas south and east of Albany.

- The first frost of the fall season is possible across portions
  of the southern Adirondacks early next week.

Discussion:

On Saturday, another upper level shortwave rounding the base of
the trough will become negatively tilted as it approaches our
region and send another low pressure system and stronger cold
front across our region. Moisture will be greater with this
system compared to Thursday with precipitable water values on
the order of 1.25 to 1.75 inches. The front looks to be located
mainly west of our area to start the day then slowly track
southeastward from there. An area of steady rain could develop
for areas north and west of Albany in the morning then shift
southeastward during the afternoon. If enough daytime heating
occurs, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible,
especially for areas south and east of Albany with the potential
for CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear values
of 40 to 50 kt. Otherwise, this will bring another beneficial
rainfall to much of the region. There will likely be a tight
northwest to southeast temperature gradient on Saturday pending
the position and timing of the front with temperatures ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s on the cool side to the lower to
mid-80s in the warm sector.

An additional upper shortwave on Sunday could lead to some lake
effect/enhanced showers, mainly for the Adirondacks, on Sunday.
Otherwise, developing zonal flow and the return of surface high
pressure will bring cooler and drier conditions for early next
week with temperatures running around 5 degrees below normal.
Low temperatures could dip into the mid-30s across portions of
the Adirondacks at night where some patchy front could develop
if such clear skies and light to calm winds occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions to start the period, but
with clear skies and winds becoming calm, fog with occasional
IFR is expected again at KGFL/KPSF especially between 07z-11z.
VFR should prevail at KALB/KPOU. Fog should dissipate by 12z,
with VFR conditions returning. High/mid level clouds will
increase Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west. Most of the TAF sites should remain dry through
00z Friday, although scattered SHRA may get close to KGFL just
prior to 00z so will mention PROB30 there. Showers will move
across the terminals Thursday evening/night. Winds will be
southerly less than 10 kt, then increasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts of 20-25 kt developing by Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be elevated tomorrow as the
combination of recent dry weather and increasing drought, wind
gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph and relative humidity values
between 35 and 40 percent will lead to an elevated risk for fire
spread. Per partner coordination, a Special Weather Statement
for elevated fire spread will be in effect for portions of
eastern New York and southern Vermont for tomorrow.

RH values will begin to rise late tomorrow afternoon as rain
with an approaching cold front begins by Thursday evening and
continues into early Friday morning. Fire weather concerns will
decrease further as another widespread wetting rainfall arrives
on Saturday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Rathbun