234
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
128 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued trend of lowering afternoon dewpoints for Saturday and
Sunday. Also increased cloud coverage through early tonight for
areas near and north of I-90 due to some lake effect clouds.
Otherwise, no significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There remains an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon
for areas within and immediately adjacent to the Hudson River
Valley, western MA and northwest CT due to dry fuels combined
with gusty winds and lowering relative humidity.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through at least the
middle of next week, with increasing chances for rain later in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, it will remain breezy
through sunset with west to northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph,
perhaps even a bit stronger across portions of the Capital
Region and Berkshires. Dewpoints will continue to drop into the
30s, allowing RH values to fall to between 40 and 50 percent in
much of the Hudson River Valley and lower elevations across the
Berkshires and NW CT, with a few locally lower values possible
across portions of the mid Hudson Valley later this afternoon.
Per prior collaboration with NYS/New England DEC`s/DEP`s and
surrounding WFO`s, given the drying fuels across these areas
with little or no rainfall for nearly 2 weeks, a Special Weather
Statement has been issued through this afternoon for an
elevated risk of fire spread.

Otherwise, temperatures will hold steady or slowly fall through
the remainder of this afternoon into/through the 50s, except 40s
for higher elevations across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT. Temps across portions of the mid Hudson Valley/NW
CT have surged into the mid/upper 60s, but will gradually fall
back through the lower 60s and upper 50s by late afternoon. A
few passing showers will remain possible across some higher
terrain areas of the SW Adirondacks through sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Outside of a few evening showers/sprinkles across portions of
the SW Adirondacks, generally dry conditions are expected
through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Chances
for rain increase later next week ahead of an approaching
frontal system and upper level trough, however there remains
uncertainty regarding whether upper level systems phase and
result in a widespread soaking rain, or the systems remain
separate, allowing for a more limited chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals,
and expected to remain VFR through the duration of the TAF period.
SCT to BKN mid-level clouds (4000-5000 ft at ALB/GFL/POU and 3500 ft
at PSF) expected through the afternoon into the evening. Clouds
should gradually dissipate overnight into tomorrow morning with
skies becoming mainly clear. W/NW winds this afternoon will be 10-15
kt with gusts of 20-30 kt. Gusts diminish after sunset, but winds
remain at 5-10 kt through most of the night into tomorrow morning
from the NW, but sustained winds around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt
redevelop at PSF and possibly POU after sunrise tomorrow morning
through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/33
AVIATION...35