232
FXUS61 KALY 281437
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1037 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant weather will continue again this
afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky. An approaching upper
level disturbance and a cold front will bring the threat for some
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region for tonight into
Friday. Behind this system, another extended period of mainly dry
and comfortable weather is expected for the Labor Day Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...As of 1037 AM EDT...High pressure continues to be
briefly in control with an approaching cold front from southeast
Canada, the Great Lakes Region and Midwest. Some high clouds
are increasing from the west with a more pronounced batch of
high clouds south of I-90 from the disturbance near the Mid
Atlantic Region. We increased skycover to partly sunny
conditions south of I-90 with mostly sunny skies to the north.
Temps trends have been adjusted after the chilly mins across the
region. See our Public Info. Statement with the low temps this
morning (i.e. KGFL was 38F). Dry conditions persist with the
PWAT on the 12Z KALY sounding only 0.59"...well below normal for
the month/date. Max temps will be near to slightly below
normal. The patchy fog was also removed from the forecast this
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 148 AM EDT...Visible satellite imagery and surface
observations show mainly clear skies in place over the region
thanks to surface high pressure located just south of the area.
The good radiational cooling has allows for temps to fall
quickly overnight, with many outlying areas already down into
the 40s. Some patchy fog may develop through daybreak in
sheltered areas and near bodies of water, but it should
dissipate quickly after sunrise.

With high pressure sliding by to the southeast, it will stay
quiet and dry into the day today. Upstream satellite imagery
already shows some higher clouds moving towards the area but
skies will still average partly to mostly sunny through the
entire day today. The next frontal system will be moving across
the Great Lakes, so there will be enough of a pressure gradient
between that system and the departing high for some breezy
conditions today, especially during peak daytime heating this
afternoon. Have leaned towards the higher end of the blended
guidance with winds today, and southerly winds may gusts as
high as 20-25 mph at times this afternoon. Temps will be a
little warmer than yesterday, with valley areas reaching the mid
to upper 70s. Considering the dry air mass in place and decent
mixing, have leaned the dewpoints towards the lower end of the
blended guidance as well.

An upper level disturbance will be shifting from the Great Lakes
towards the Northeast for Thursday night into Friday. This
system will be closing off aloft, so it will be taking its time
as it moves across the region. At the surface, a cold front will
be heading across the eastern Great Lakes for tonight and will
be crossing the forecast area during the daytime hours on
Friday. Some showers will spread across northern areas for the
late night hours, with the best chance for the bulk of the area
on Friday morning. CAMs suggest some elevated instability may be
in place, with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE (mainly for southern
and eastern areas), so a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled
out. However, no strong storms are anticipated due to the
limited instability, low dewpoints and poor timing of the
frontal boundary. Despite the showers, total rainfall looks
fairly low and no significant rainfall amounts are anticipated.
Latest NBM suggest the potential for greater than 0.25" of
rainfall is mainly under 30 percent for most areas outside of
the Adirondacks. Temps will be in the 50s to low 70s for most
areas due to the clouds and possible precip on Friday, although
some far southern valley areas could reach the mid 70s behind
the departing front if enough sun comes back out.

Over the weekend, the closed low will slowly spin across
northern New England for Saturday into Sunday. It should be far
enough away to have little impact on our area. A few spotty
sprinkles or light showers can`t be ruled out over the
Adirondacks or southern VT on Saturday afternoon, otherwise, it
will be dry through the holiday weekend. There may be some
diurnal clouds on Saturday, but it looks fairly clear on Sunday
into Monday. With the cooler temps aloft, temps will be below
normal, but very comfortable for outdoors activities, with highs
in the 70s for Saturday through Monday for valley areas. A few
spots could get back close to 80 by Labor Day. Dewpoints will
remain fairly low in the 40s and 50s through the period as well.
While it may be a little breezy on Saturday, high pressure
should keep it fairly calm for Sunday into Monday.

It looks to stay continued dry for Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week as well, with the next storm system not expected until
the late week. Temps will be moderating back close to normal.
With the dry conditions remaining in place and little recent
rainfall, will need to watch for any potential fire weather
issues next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z/Fri...VFR conditions are expected for much of the
upcoming TAF period. Any remaining fog at KGFL/KPSF should lift
by around 12z/Thu. A cold front will approach the TAF sites
between 06-12z/Fri with a gradual increase and lowering of
clouds along with a few showers. Best shower chances by 12z/Fri
are at KALB/KGFL where cigs could lower to MVFR levels. Wind
will become south to southwesterly at 10-15 kt by this afternoon.
Wind will remain southerly tonight but decrease to 3-6 kt at
most sites except remain around 10 kt at KALB.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
UPDATE...Wasula
DISCUSSION...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun