282
FXUS61 KALY 051751
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1251 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs and QPF amounts across much of the region
Saturday and Saturday night with an upper low expected to track
overhead. Otherwise, mainly minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak cold front will bring scattered showers to the region
Thursday, with additional chances of rain Friday into Friday
night for the I-84 corridor in NY and Litchfield County in CT.

2) Another disturbance will lead to a round of scattered showers
across the region Saturday into early Sunday, with temperatures
trending back towards normal Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 12:45 AM EST...Current satellite imagery
shows high clouds just starting to increase across western portions
of our region, with some stratus moving up from the south towards
the I-84 corridor. While more sheltered areas that were able to
decouple have seen temps drop into the upper 40s so far this
evening, the rest of the region remains well into the 50s to low low
60s, which is quite warm for this time of year. Temperatures won`t
drop much from current levels through the rest of the night with
increasing clouds.

As we head towards daybreak, a sfc low tracking into southern Canada
will drag its attendant cold front through the region. Deep
southerly flow with a connection to the Gulf will allow PWATs to
surge to around 1.5" ahead of the front, which is around 3 std dev
above normal for early November. However, the best upper forcing and
dynamics will remain to the west of our region so the area of
showers associated with the cold front is expected to gradually
weaken as it tracks through the region. This will be especially true
for the Capital District and Mid Hudson Valley where southwest low
to mid-level winds will downslope off of the Catskills. For most of
the region, a tenth to quarter inch of qpf is expected through
Thursday evening, but upslope flow into the southern ADKs will lead
to higher qpf here closer to a half to three quarters of an inch.
This rain is much-needed given that that is has been almost 3 weeks
since most of the region saw appreciable rainfall. Tomorrow will be
about 5-10 degrees cooler than Wednesday was, but temperatures will
still be above normal with relatively high humidity (at least by
November standards). Tomorrow also looks breezy, with wind gusts up
to 20 to possibly 30 mph, strongest out ahead of the front and in
the N/S oriented valleys due to flow channeling.

Tomorrow night, the front will stall off to the east of our region
with some scattered showers continuing across southeastern areas.
Just how far to the east it stall remains a point of forecast
uncertainty, however, and will have large implications as to whether
or not we see another round of rain Friday and Friday night. During
this time period, the parent ULL will be slowly drifting across the
southern Great Lakes region, with a southern stream shortwave
expected to track around its southern periphery and become
negatively tilted as it moves over the East Coast. This will result
in the development of a wave of low pressure along the stalled
frontal boundary. With continued moisture advection and convergence
along the front, this will lead to a band of moderate to at times
heavy rain developing Friday into Friday night. At this time, the
consensus is that the front will stall far enough to our east that
most of our region will miss out on this rain, although Litchfield
County and the southern Mid Hudson Valley will likely see at
least some rain. Wherever this area of rain sets up, it looks
like there will be a sharp QPF gradient on the W/NW side of the
band. The latest NBM has a 30-40% chance for >0.5" of rain
southeast of Rte 202 in Litchfield County, with only a 10-20%
chance for areas north and west. Temperatures remains several
degrees above normal Thursday night through Friday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Regardless of how the Friday/Friday night system
evolves, confidence is beginning to increase for another round of
showers Saturday afternoon and night into early Sunday. The parent
ULL will slowly drift over our region, and while there remains some
uncertainty in its track, general consensus seems for it to track
somewhere in the vicinity or just south of the I-90 corridor. Fairly
widespread showers are expected Saturday, especially under the ULL
and on the NW side where the best upper deformation will be.
Additionally, there are signals for an inverted sfc trough to
develop extending westwards from the deepening coastal low to the
ULL, which will likely act to locally enhance shower coverage and
intensity wherever it sets up across our region. NBM suggests a 20-
30% for >0.5" of additional rain across the Mid Hudson Valley with a
30-50% chance across the rest of the region, but would not be
surprised to see these probabilities increase over the next day or
two with many deterministic sources of guidance suggesting some
amounts in excess of 1" are possible where the most persistent and
heaviest showers set up. Even if rainfall totals end up higher
than the current forecast, we have no hydro concerns at all
given very dry antecedent conditions.

Showers come to an end Sunday morning as the ULL drifts off the east
coast. A few snow flakes could mix in over the highest terrain of
the ADKs before precip comes to an end Sunday morning. Cooler, but
still above normal temps expected Saturday, but Sunday into the
first half of next week should see temperatures return to closer to
normal values (40s for the terrain to 50s for valleys). A few weak
upper disturbances embedded in broad upper troughing aloft could
bring a few additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers early
next week. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty around the
potential timing, although best chance for a few additional light
showers looks to be Monday, and/or again Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday... The widespread rain that has been
impacting all terminals this morning has moved east into New
England this afternoon, although some showers are lingering
behind. While vis has improved back up to VFR, cigs will stay
solidly MVFR throughout this afternoon and into the overnight
hours, with periods of IFR cigs possible throughout that time,
mainly at KGFL. Southerly winds will also persist through this
evening, with gusts up to 15-20 kts at KALB and KPSF. Another
round of rain showers is possible after sunset at KALB, KPOU,
and KPSF, which will contribute to deteriorating cig and vis
conditions. Calming winds and abundant low level moisture will
likely lead to mist/fog formation at all terminals overnight,
leading to IFR conditions at all terminals except for KALB,
which is expected to have MVFR cigs and vis persist. Conditions
will begin to improve after sunrise tomorrow, with the return of
VFR conditions at all terminals for the last 4-6 hours of this
TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for November 4th:
Albany, NY: 76 deg F (set in 1994)
Poughkeepsie, NY: 74 deg F (set in 2015)
Glens Falls, NY: 73 deg F (set in 1990)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...