781
FXUS61 KALY 101351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
951 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 951 AM EDT...The Freeze Warning has been expired for
eastern NY and western New England. Most if not all locations
across the forecast area fell below freezing. Temps continue to
rise into the 30s and 40s with patchy fog/freezing fog
dissipating quickly in and near the Hudson, Mohawk and CT River
Valleys. Classic radiational cooling sounding signature from
KALY this morning with a paltry PWAT of 0.21. The strong
subsidence from the sfc anticyclone will allow sunny/mostly
sunny skies for temps to rise into the 50s to lower 60s with a
few upper 40s over the mtns. Again...a nice early Autumn Day
after the chilly start.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control today through Saturday
with temperatures rebounding to seasonal levels. A coastal low
will bring increasing clouds for late Saturday into Sunday,
along with some rain Sunday afternoon into early next week,
especially for areas south of Interstate 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT, under clear skies/light to calm winds and a
very dry air mass with PWAT ~0.20", temps have plummeted into
the mid 20s to mid 30s across the region. Temps will likely drop
a few more degrees through sunrise. Some patchy fog may develop
for areas in close proximity to bodies of water through
daybreak.

After any patchy fog lifts, the cold/frosty start should give
way to sunny skies with afternoon temps reaching the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Clear skies initially this evening, then some patchy low clouds
may develop/expand north into portions of the mid Hudson
Valley/NW CT and Berkshires after midnight. This increased
moisture and a developing light south breeze should allow temps
to be warmer than this morning. However, some portions of the
upper Hudson Valley/southern Adirondacks could still drop into
the lower/mid 30s and necessitate frost headlines where the
growing season remains.

Intervals of clouds and sun for Saturday, with more clouds
south/west of Albany. Spotty showers can not be ruled out
across portions of the eastern Catskills/mid Hudson Valley and
western Mohawk Valley Saturday afternoon/night as some low
level Atlantic moisture works in tandem with upper level energy
approaching from western NY. High temps should reach the 60s for
most areas. Lows Saturday night mainly in the 40s, except for
some 30s across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- A coastal low will likely bring 24-hr rainfall amounts of an
  inch or more south of interstate 90 Sunday into Monday based
  on the latest NBM.

Discussion:

Main focus through this period will be impacts from coastal low
expected to track off northern mid Atlantic coast Sunday through
Tuesday. Bands of rain should extend into the mid Hudson
Valley/NW CT region by late Sunday morning, and should spread
northward toward or just north of I-90 by late Sunday afternoon
before expanding farther north and west Sunday night into
Monday. Latest 01Z NBM indicates 24-hour chances for
precipitation > 1 inch ending 8 PM Monday at 50-65% for areas
south and east of Albany, greatest across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT, dropping off to 20-45% to the
north/west of Albany, lowest across the SW Adirondacks. Some
gusty northeast are expected across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley and higher terrain areas of NW CT, the Berkshires and
Taconics/southern VT, where probs for max wind gusts >35 mph
ending 2 AM Monday and again 2 AM Tuesday are 50-65%, suggesting
some peak gusts of 30-40 mph are quite possible. It should be
noted that there still is some uncertainty regarding the exact
track and timing of the coastal low and potential impacts to the
region, so some changes may still occur to ongoing forecasts
and messaging, especially timing considerations.

Areal coverage of rain/gusty winds should decrease Tuesday as
the low slowly pulls away. Some lingering showers could occur
Wednesday-Thursday from upper level energy approaching from the
northwest.

Below normal high temps Sunday-Monday due to clouds/some rain
with highs mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s, though could be
cooler where rain persists. Overnight lows mainly in the 40s.
Slight warming Tuesday-Wednesday with highs reaching the
lower/mid 60s in valleys and 50s for higher terrain areas.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Freezing fog has developed and continues
to impact KGFL and KALB this morning with LIFR conditions forced
by both low visibility and ceiling heights. However, given that
skies aloft are clear, once the sun comes up, things should mix
out rather quickly such that VFR conditions be returned here by
13-14z. KPOU and KPSF are not presently observing any fog, but
evidence of low cloud bases on the GOES-19 night fog product and
the METARs suggest they may soon see reduced visibilities.
Therefore, brief TEMPOs were included in their TAFs to account
for the possibility of briefly worse conditions. However,
similarly to KALB and KGFL, any fog that develops will quickly
be scoured out by ample sunshine. VFR conditions will then
prevail throughout the remainder of the 12z TAF cycle with light
winds out of the southeast.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Columbus Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Some minor tidal flooding may occur
in the mid Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie.

Please monitor our latest forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SYNOPSIS...15/24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...37
HYDROLOGY...15