363
FXUS64 KAMA 240612
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
112 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
  across the Southern Texas Panhandles with all hazards not fully
  ruled out.

- Extreme amounts of moisture this afternoon could lead to flash
  flooding concerns with any thunderstorm that develops.

- Hot temperatures are expect to continue with near to over triple
  digit high temperatures possible through the end of July.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Overnight showers have been slowly breaking down with the exit of
the short-wave this morning. However, behind this short-wave most
CAMs are in agreement that a boundary will settle somewhere
across the Southern Texas Panhandles for this afternoon and
evening. The final placement of this boundary will be critical for
any activity today as it will be our primary lifting mechanize.
In terms of atmospheric conditions for today, many CAMs continue
to see almost tropical like amounts of moisture funnel into the
Panhandles with PWAT values ranging from 1.5 to nearing 2 inches
as you push further east. With values like that available, it
would very easy for any shower to produce heavy rainfall with
strong to severe thunderstorms pushing rainfall rates upwards of 3
to 6 inches per hour. Added to this is the presence of decent
MLCAPE values and wind shear with most CAMs averaging around 2000
to 3000 J/kg and upwards of 30 kt of effective bulk shear. These
values alongside the potential boundary interactions have made it
so all hazards cant be ruled out. However, flooding is posed to
take the main stage today thanks to these extreme moisture values
and the potential for there to be weak storm motion thanks to the
still present upper-level high and stalled boundary. Now there are
still some failure modes to this activity, with the primary being
the boundary moving further south than present models expect.
This would obviously force the Panhandles under the area of
subsidence that is following behind the boundary where activity
would be much harder to lift no matter how much moisture is
present. Otherwise, heat does continue to plague the Panhandles
this afternoon with locations still trying to force themselves
into the triple digits. In our east this heat and expected
moisture can lead to areas feeling hotter than it actually is with
most of the area under a Heat Advisory for the afternoon.

Moving into Saturday does see this boundary move off the
Panhandles, with the upper-level high pressure system prime to
take over once again for the Panhandles. However, linger moisture
from today may be high enough to see a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms develop once we have reach convective temperatures
that afternoon. Speaking of temperatures, the holding of the
upper-level high once again will see the potential for yet another
day of triple-digit heat. This heat could be a bit more potent
Saturday afternoon as the lesser coverage of storms could result
in more areas needing heat related products.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Heat continues to be the main talking point for the extended long-
term period as model agreement does not see the the upper-level
high pressure over the Panhandles laying off anytime soon. With
this high-pressure in place, the Panhandles will hold onto a more
stagnate and dry upper-level pattern that will aid in forcing
temperatures near or over the triple digit mark through the end of
July. Obviously such hot temperatures over multiple consecutive
days rather typical for this time of year. However, what could
make this much more dangerous is that low temperatures are not
fairing much better with present expectations seeing locations,
such as Amarillo and Dalhart, have the potential to either break
or tie their record warm low temperature each night. Expectations
like these would also mean that there is very little relief
occurring during overnight hours which may only amplify the risk
of seeing heat related illness as each day passes. One thing that
may be our saving grace over the course of next week, however, is
the potential to see some shift in the upper-level high pressure.
Any shift in said high could lead to moisture pushing in and
creating cloud cover or isolated storms that can provide a bit of
relief to the Panhandles. A few of the ensemble have even
suggested the potential of some northwesterly flow that could
force storms off the Southern Range starting Wednesday afternoon.
Still given the present uncertainty for activity, it is becoming
increasingly likely that the expected heat will primary concern
for the week with the potential for long lasting heat related
products becoming more likely by the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally conditions will be VFR at all terminals for the next 24
hours. The big exception to this will be during the passage of a
rain shower or thunderstorms. Heavy to torrential rainfall from
these can lead to MVFR to IFR conditions. Flooding at airfields
due to the rain cannot be ruled out today. The current morning
rain showers and thunderstorms will most likely come to an end
within the next few hours. Then a further round of rain showers
and thunderstorms is expected for this afternoon and evening. This
second round of storms can see strong to even severe storms that
may produce large hail and damaging winds. It will remain very hot
across the panhandles today with increased density altitude
expected at all terminals.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ005-010-014-015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98