Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
739 FXUS64 KAMA 201116 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 - Heat wave will build through the week with major to extreme heat risk anticipated for much of the area by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Stout H5 ridge will loom across the Cen Rockies and Cen Plains through the early part of the week. A weak westerly moving upper low will pass well south of the area today under the ridge axis. While some of the northern reaches of a related vort max may clip the SW Panhandles, there is also some subtle H7 dry advection from the SE and even typically more agressive CAMS aren`t showing much convective potential in the area. Given this, no POPs are advertised today. There is briefly a shift to SSW H7 flow on Tuesday. This transports higher moisture mainly into the the western Panhandles as the last bit of energy from the easterly wave moves across the area. Some models are producing some SHRA with this feature mainly Tue evening despite very warm mid level temps. NBM picked up on this and consequently has included a 10-20 POP across the NW half of the CWA on Tue evening. Not completely convinced, but have left this in the forecast. Highs yesterday (Sun) were already running warmer than forecast in several locations. NBM seems behind in warming things up and collaborated with neighbors to lean toward warmer MOS blends and some other bias corrected blends for highs. This means highs are forecast to be mid 90s to around 100 today and upper 90s to low 100s Tue as the ridge axis sinks south and H5 heights increase from north to south. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Mid level high center will dominate the extended period. There remains plenty of uncertainty regarding it exact location after Wed when agreement is good it will position across WRN OK and the ERN Panhandles. A subtle decrease in H5 heights was noted the last few operational model runs and NBM actually decreased temps a couple degrees the last run or two, but is still showing plenty of 100-107 degrees highs during the peak Wed through Fri. NBM probability of >104 degree readings is anywhere from 35 to 85 percent across the N/CEN Panhandles, across the central Canadian River Valley and from PDC to Wellington on Thu. Probabilities are similar through the weekend, but briefly shift a little south (focused more on the CEN and SRN Texas Panhandle) for Friday. There is a 20-40 percent chance for readings exceeding 109, but this is confined to the typically hottest areas near Borger and PDC Thursday and into the weekend. There is some uncertainty regarding exact location of two frontal/outflow boundaries that will stall very close to the NE Panhandles Wed and again Fri and the northeast is where the lowest confidence is as a result. The combination of forecast temperatures (highs and lows) and longevity of the event is leading to a large area of forecasted extreme heat risk (via the NWS HeatRisk product) by late week and continuing through the weekend. Models do not agree on the position of the ridge beyond mid week. Some retrograde it west of the area and open the door for NW flow S/WVs to induce storms as there is a significantly high theta-e axis stretched across the area, although even in those models the mid level temps are very warm. This is leading to a low POP Friday and through the weekend with best chances in the NW Panhandles. Ridge appears to dominate enough to promote continued 100+ degree heat through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle with little aviation impacts expected. Winds will be out of the southwest to south through the day around 10kts,with potential for gusts up to 20kts this afternoon. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gi LONG TERM....Gi AVIATION...28