Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
884 FXUS64 KAMA 281743 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1243 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 - Isolated storms are possible across the west and south today - storms should be more widespread on Friday with low end severe storms possible as well. - Patchy fog, potentially dense at times, is possible across the northern Panhandles on Friday morning near sunrise. - After a break this weekend, thunderstorm chances return each day starting on Monday next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon continues to depict low to mid level clouds across the northeastern half of the CWA. Cloud cover is decreasing across the region, but there is still some influence from a departing low pressure system that is leading to isolated showers developing over Beaver county at this time. A secondary, albeit, weaker wave should lead to isolated shower and storm development across the higher terrain of NM later on today. Additionally, a few attempts at convection may occur across west Texas and the southwestern TX Panhandle, but that potential is much less certain right now. In either case, there are at least low end chances for rain in the western and southwestern Panhandles for this evening due to the potential storms. An increasing stream of moisture along with a weak LLJ may be able to maintain showers or storms into the late evening hours, but that is a low confidence scenario at this time. Mid to low level moisture will continue to increase tonight into Friday morning across the Panhandles. Very light upslope wind overnight may aid in the development of some patchy fog across the northern Panhandles, similar to what occurred this morning across the south. Widespread fog is not expected, but cannot rule out some patchy dense fog areas occurring on Friday morning. If any fog does develop, it should quickly dissipate by mid morning across the region. A shortwave embedded in the upper level flow is expected to move across the western Panhandles on Friday morning. This feature may lead to isolated showers during the morning before a somewhat stronger shortwave trough moves through during the afternoon. The secondary wave should be able to generate at least scattered showers and storms over the Panhandles. Severe storm ingridients certainly are not the best for tomorrow, but there could be just enough instability and cooler mid level temps to lead to an isolated large hail threat along with a strong wind gust or two. The potential is quite low, but there continues to be a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms across most of the area on Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be dependent upon how quickly cloud cover clears out and how widespread any afternoon storms become, but in general most areas should warm up into the 80s. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 An H500 low pressure system will struggle to move east this weekend due to a strong ridge of high pressure with the central axis from the southeastern CONUS up through the Canadian Prairies. Southeasterly low level wind is expected through the weekend which will usher in drier air to the surface as well as WAA. H850 temperatures should steadily increase into the upper 20s to potentially 30 Celsius by Sunday. Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s by Sunday with some locations potentially reaching the triple digit mark. Overall, sunny skies with breezy conditions should lead to a rather nice weekend to end the month of May. A ridging pattern is forecast to remain in place across the Plains next week, but should remain just off to the east of the Panhandles so low pressure systems along with shortwave troughs should be able to move over the region during the work week. Mid to low level moisture should be able to surge northward towards west Texas and the Panhandles during this same time frame. The combination of these should bring the potential for showers and storms back to the Panhandles after the break in the moisture potential this upcoming weekend. This will not be the best severe storm environment given lack of upper level flow due to the ridging pattern, but there could be enough instability to lead to some isolated severe storms next week. Muscha && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. An isolated storm may approach KDHT or KAMA this evening, but any confidence in a storm forming near the terminal is much too low to mention at this time. Showers or a storm may form during the later half of this TAF issuance, but confidence in aviation impacts is low at this time. In addition to the shower or storm threat, low clouds and/or patchy fog may develop around 10-14z which would lead to MVFR or lower flight conditions. KGUY has the highest potential at MVFR ceilings or fog so have introduced lower ceilings for that site. Otherwise, light wind around 10 kts or less is forecast over the next 24 hours. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05