368
FXUS64 KAMA 062331
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

-Daily rain chances through Wednesday for portions of the
 Panhandles.

-Below average high temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the
 50s/60s.

-Return to above average high temperatures well into 80s by the
 end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

As of the latest 18Z observations across the Panhandles, we still
have some leftover showers in the NE Panhandles in the wake of
the main cold front that has moved through 95 percent of the
combined Panhandles, minus the far SE TX Panhandle where the front
has now almost stalled. With that said, new areas of showers has
developed along this slow moving cold front. This area will be the
local mesoscale focal point for additional showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening hours. Further
aloft in the mid levels, looking at the latest water vapor
satellite analysis, a subtle perturbation moving east from
western New Mexico, in-conjunction with good H700 theta-e
advection on the west side of the broad high pressure system over
south Texas will provide rain chances for the Panhandles tonight
into tomorrow. The periphery of the high where the best moisture
transport from the Gulf and even some from the eastern Pacific,
with even some influence from moisture dispersion aloft from the
upper levels of Hurricane Priscilla, the transport axis with these
associated mid level synoptic will result in rain chances
continuing for a good portion of the Panhandles throughout the
short term forecast period. Starting later this evening, activity
from SE NM may move NE along and just north of the front and give
some elevated showers and thunderstorms to portions of the
Panhandles through tonight.

In the wake of the cold front, cloud cover starting this evening
will build across the region with lows tonight cooling off into
the 40s/50s. High temperatures tomorrow with cloud cover and rain
chances returning will remain well below average for early
October with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the NW to the lower
70s in the far SE TX Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Dry conditions and warm temperatures will return throughout the
long term forecast period. As the ridge of high pressure builds
across Texas north from the Rio Grande, large scale subsidence
should keep the Panhandles dry. Perhaps some ridge rollers on the
periphery of the H500 ridge may provide a chance of showers for
the NW Panhandles later this week, but chances remain low. High
temperatures will rise to slightly above average by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A weather system continue to impact the whole of the panhandles
and all terminals through the next 24 hours. This evening the
weather system is producing rain showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the western portions of the panhandles. By the time these
storms reach any of the terminals is more likely for them to be
rain showers over thunderstorms. Still there is a low chance for
thunderstorms to occur it is just not high enough confidence to
reflect in the TAF compared to rain showers. Further rain showers
will then build in and persist through the entire overnight at all
terminals. During this time a low level cloud deck will spread
across the panhandles impacting all terminals with MVFR and then
IFR conditions. The chances for rain then decrease in the mid
morning and are not reflected in the TAF, this doesn`t mean the
rain showers ceased just that the chances of impacting the
terminals is just to low. The low level cloud deck will see
improvement from IFR to MVFR during the later morning hours with
daytime warming. This deck is unlikely to break up and burn off so
conditions will most likely remain MVFR through the rest of the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98