Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
217 FXUS64 KAMA 291106 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 506 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Strong winds tonight have the potential to become damaging in very isolated locations across the CWA. Strong cross wind gusts will be possible for those in commute, and loose objects may be displaced. The snow potential this Friday night has very low potential for impacts. Accumulation has a low chance of occurring. && .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Synopsis... Strong +45 mph wind gusts are expected to occur overnight for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some 50 mph and even 60 mph winds are possible. The main time frame for these gusts will be from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday. Mesoscale... A strong low level jet is setting up this evening in association with an oncoming surface low. A cold front will also reinforce the LLJ as it transitions eastward through the night. The primary concern with these features is whether or not these low level winds will mix completely down to the surface. Near term guidance clearly shows the LLJ strengthening towards midnight, and 850 mb winds display +50kt wind speeds being achieved. This afternoon`s CAMs keep winds up overnight, but wind gusts are mostly under performing. 18Z skew-T profiles show 15-25 mph winds at the surface, but just 500-1,000m above the surface are 45-50 mph winds, even reaching up to 65 mph in some instances. These heights are also where the temperature inversion is expected, but the LLJ`s influence may help these stronger winds break through the inversion and mix down to the surface. 12Z HREF guidance suggest there is a up to a 70% chance a 45 mph wind gusts can be met in the central and northwestern Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately, the latest 00Z data is not available yet for analysis; however, we will continue to monitor observations for signs of these gusts occurring. While these high-end wind gusts will not be widespread across the region, localized areas are more likely to receive impacts. As the cold front meets the surface low, the pressure gradient is forecast to tighten further. +45 mph wind gust probabilities shift towards the northwest combined panhandles after 12 AM as the front moves through. By 6 AM Thursday, surface winds will still be strong as we head into the day, but they will loose support from the LLJ as it completely shifts into Oklahoma and disperses in the process. Rangel && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 See the UPDATE for the short term forecast tonight through Thursday morning. Another resurgence of strong, northerly wind speeds is forecast to occur this afternoon due to diurnal heating behind the passing front. However, wind gusts are not expected to be as potentially strong as they could be in the aforementioned Tonight period. Still, wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur early this afternoon. Despite the northerly wind flow, temperatures today will continue to range in the 50`s, with some 40`s expected in our eastern zones. Clear skies will amplify daytime heating and tonight`s low temperatures will actually be generally above average due to the strong overnight winds. By the evening, wind speeds will finally decrease an become light through the night. Friday, day time highs are anticipated to marginally increase, with 50`s becoming more widespread again. Our next cold front is expected to arrive Friday afternoon, but winds will only be breezy behind the front. As temperatures fall sharply in the wake of the cold front, guidance still suggest there may be enough moisture for some light precipitation overnight into Saturday. Currently the northeast combined panhandles are the most likely candidates for snowfall, or at least snow flurries. There is a low chance (<15%) that snow could effect more areas further south in or CWA, but models are not forecasting QPF for those locations. Therefore, snow flurries are the most likely outcome for most of the combined Panhandles. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Any potential snowfall would have already occurred before 6 AM Saturday. The current probabilities for additional precipitation are very low for the day time on Saturday. The cold front will have already past by this point as well, and winds will revert back to southerly flow by the afternoon. Yesterday`s 12Z and 18Z model data show more of a western influence from upper level heights. This allows high temperatures to be cooler across the area than previously forecast. Highs ranging from the lower 30`s to lower 40`s are expected, but the majority of the combined panhandles should be bound to the 30`s. Sunday onward, the upper level ridge quickly redevelops over the region. Yet, we will still be subject to dynamic upper level changes as the pattern remains unsettled. High temperatures will rebound to the 50`s and some 60`s on Sunday. Above normal temperatures will linger through the new week before our next cold front arrives between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday PoPs have decreased or remained stagnate across the area. Models are still not in good agreement concerning the moisture axis and precipitation type. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 The surface inversion is preventing the strong winds from mixing to the surface. This means that all terminals have strong speed LLWS this morning. Come this mid morning hours the winds will mix to the surface creating breezy and gusty conditions at all terminals that will last until the evening. After this the winds weaken and become fairly weak. Otherwise VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...98