Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
554 FXUS64 KAMA 231121 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 - Cooler temperatures and potentially heavy moisture is expected this weekend. Monitoring for a potential flood threat as well. (At least a 15% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point - Mainly on Sunday) && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Currently a negatively tilted upper level trough is oriented along the central to southern CA/NV state line. The leading edge of this trough has cloud cover with embedded thunderstorms over far eastern AZ into NM. This current shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to move quite slowly and stay in NM over the next 24 to 48 hours. Today and tonight, much of the Panhandles will not see any precipitation chances. While the far western combined Panhandles has a slight chance PoPs introduced tonight. The far western stack of counties in the FA is expected to hang on to PoPs for some time over the weekend, with the rest of the Panhandles finally gaining their chances late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Even with the rain not expected to show up for a while for much of the area, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler this afternoon. Mainly across the western half of the FA due to increased cloud cover. Some areas off the caprock and in the eastern Panhandles may still see a high around 80 today. As the system gets closer Saturday, afternoon highs are looking to get held back in the 60s in the west and 70s in the east. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time. However, the amount of atmospheric moisture expected with this system will bring a concern for excessive rainfall. With the slowness of this system the main concern for excessive rainfall will be confined to areas west of the Dalhart Boise City line. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Sunday is looking to be the main brunt of the rain for the combined OK/TX Panhandles as the aforementioned trough in the short term cycles through another closed low near the Four Corners Region. Although there may be some disappointment to amounts across central to eastern portions of the combined Panhandles. By Sunday, PoPs in the western half of the combined Panhandles bump up in the 70-90% range with the eastern Panhandles gaining a 30-70% chance for rain. Some of the highest PoPs remain in the Sunday to Sunday night time frame for the central to western Panhandles. For the eastern Panhandles, especially the southeastern Panhandles, some of the highest PoPs exist Monday into Monday night. However, by this time showers and thunderstorms are likely to have lower rain rates and be much lighter than what the western Panhandles will see Sun into Sun night. By Mon night negative H7 theta-e advection is progged to move into the northwest Panhandles shutting down the rain for this region. Overall, progged instability remains low in the 200-500 J/Kg range. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. However, with just enough instability combined with PWATs around an 1" (close to 200% of normal for this time of year), excessive rainfall cannot be ruled out, especially for localized areas that get multiple rounds. Although, the best place to see multiple rounds and more than an inch of storm total rainfall will be the far northwest, where shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger a bit longer. Tonight, an area from Texline to Boise City to Kenton are outlooked for a 5% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance. Tomorrow, from Adrian to Dalhart up into eastern Cimarron County westward are outlooked for a at least a 15% chance to see rainfall exceed flash flood guidance. On Sunday that 15% chance encompassed about four fifths of the FA excluding the southeastern combined Panhandles. It does not look like rainfall rates will exceed 1" an hour, but if they do it will be with very isolated updrafts. Don`t expect widespread excessive rainfall, but be prepared as some narrow corridors may still see impacts due to training storms, especially in the northwestern Panhandles. The system is not only looking to bring rain chances, but cooler temperatures as well. From Sunday onward highs will mostly be stuck in the 60s, even after the system exits the Southern Plains. Tuesday through Thursday are looking mainly dry at this time. By Thursday night, guidance is hinting at another shot for showers and thunderstorms as southwest flow aloft returns ahead of another trough. Likely a weaker system, but still drawing in Pacific moisture for rain chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 As of early this morning, present satellite was seeing scatter cloud decks across the Panhandles with most of the CIGs being report high enough to keep terminals at VFR conditions. These cloud decks are likely to hold at this height through day with some cover becoming more broken to overcast as we head into the overnight. Meanwhile winds at the surface are expected to pick up with the approaching system. Expected all terminals to be capable of gusting upwards of 30 knots by this afternoon with most CAMs not seeing the weaken until sunset. Otherwise, expect all terminals to stay VFR for the package. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...11