089
FXUS64 KAMA 291116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Some areas including Palo Duro Canyon will have potential to
  reach 105 degrees almost daily starting this weekend into next
  week.

- Very low precipitation chances linger across the far northwest
  Panhandles through the end of August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

An uneventful weather weekend is highly favored to unfold, as high
pressure meanders back atop the region. Mesoanalysis and satellite
water vapor show a 596 dam ridge currently centered over the Rockies
of New Mexico, but will be translating eastward over the next few
days. As it does so, a tighter surface pressure gradient will
develop, leading to breezier southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting up
to 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures unfortunately will climb back to
the upper 90s to just above the century mark this weekend in tandem
with breezy winds. Despite recent rainfall, these parameters could
support elevated fire weather conditions both days. A relatively
moisture starved environment atop the region will greatly diminish
precipitation chances, with the only 10-15% POPs existing across the
far northwest Panhandles in the evening hours.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Model trends aren`t looking great to cap off August and kick off
September, as hot and dry conditions are very likely to prevail.
Both deterministic and ensemble datasets depict high pressure being
nudged eastward over the southeast CONUS through the week, as
persistent troughing settles atop the Pacific northwest. Although
this does loosen the grip of ridging over the Panhandles, it should
still have enough influence to reduce moisture transport to the CWA
while keeping high temperatures in the 90 to 105 range each day next
week. If there are any days with better rain chances, models suggest
Tue-Wed could see slightly improved potential as the jet stream sags
closer to the Panhandles. However, this still only supports meager
10-20% POPs to northwestern portions of the forecast area. Elevated
fire weather conditions could return any given day with breezy
winds, and rain chances don`t look promising for awhile looking
further ahead into September.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

High pressure is expected to keep building across the combined
Panhandles today which will keep the predominate conditions for
the terminals VFR this afternoon. There is a 10 percent chance of
an isolated storm across the far Northwestern Panhandles late this
evening. However, CAMs do not expect any impacts to the terminals
with breezy to gusty surface to be more of a problem for the day.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11