170
FXUS64 KAMA 131851
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
151 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Critical fire weather concerns in the eastern combined
  Panhandles today, as lightning starts and thunderstorm wind
  gusts over dry fuels create a dangerous fire weather
  environment.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected in the northern and
  eastern Panhandles. Severe risk is currently low, with strong
  winds and frequent lightning as the main concerns.

- Dangerous heat continues for the eastern Panhandles, as well as
  Palo Duro Canyon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Concerns of thunderstorm development in the eastern and southcentral
combined Panhandles this afternoon continues. As convective
temperatures are reached, and a diffuse moisture boundary sets up
over the Panhandles, thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the
afternoon/early evening. The main risk with these storms is strong
wind gusts with DCAPE values of 1500-1700 J/kg, ~2000 J/kg SBCAPE,
and steep low-level lapse rates. Although PWAT values are > 1 inch
across the east, a lacking shear environment and inverted-V forecast
soundings means that precipitation will likely be confined to the
cores of thunderstorms. Any lightning strikes off of the periphery
of thunderstorm bases will have the ability to induce fires. Any
fires started by lightning will be susceptible to thunderstorm wind
gusts of 60-70 MPH, which could intensify fires and cause them to
move quickly and erratically. The current uncertainty lies in storm
coverage this afternoon, as CAMs have trended down in this regard.
Small storm clusters due to the dry nature of the environment as
well as spatial resolution limitations are likely leading to this
downtrend.

PoP chances on Friday favor the north (northern Texas and entire
Oklahoma Panhandle). Reaching convective temperatures and any
lingering outflow boundaries, co-located with a swath of moisture
could initiate storms through the afternoon across the central
combined Panhandles. However, general SE to E flow into the higher
terrain in CO and NM will also initiate storms tomorrow. Easterly
storm motions will bring these frontrange storms into the northern
CWA later in the evening, where stronger core could pose a risk of
strong wind gusts. The 850 mb jet is displaced from these storms to
the east, so if they are able to survive into the evening hours and
propagate easterly to catch the jet as it ramps up, this could allow
storms to persist into the night.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Frontrange thunderstorms due to easterly surface flow on the north
side of a surface low pressure system will be the story of the
weekend. Whether steering flow will bring these thunderstorms into
our CWA remains the biggest question in the long term. However, if
these storms are top make it into the northwestern combined
Panhandles, strong wind gusts could be an impact to keep an eye on
with the environment in place.

After the weekend, the story largely remains the same as the upper-
level high pressure retrogrades back west, placing the Panhandles in
another high-pressure regime with hot daily maximum temperatures and
dry conditions. Although, the flow does flatten out over the central
US, with consistent W flow over the rockies as we head into mid-next
week. Lee side shortwave perturbations could bring some weather to
the OK and northern TX Panhandles mid-next week if this pattern
holds.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of the 18Z TAF period. Winds
will be predominantly southerly at 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30
kts. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern and
eastern Panhandles this afternoon/evening. PROB 30 groups for
-TSRM have been added at both KGUY and KDHT from 01-08Z, where
 confidence is higher. -TSRM are possible at KAMA as well from
 21-06Z, but confidence is lower, as dry air will make coverage of
 storms spotty that far west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Wind s will remain out of the S/SW around 15-20 kts sustained,
gusting up to 25-30 kts through the afternoon and into the evening.
Winds in the northwestern combined Panhandles are expected to drop
to around 5 kts, and change to northwesterly due to the position of
the surface low pressure beginning around 11PM. This wind shift and
decrease in speeds is only expected to reach as far southwest as I-
60 before retreating back northwest. The main concern today is new
fire starts due to dry lightning. Lightning will be possible on the
periphery of storm bases, displaced from precipitation cores. This
will allow for fire starts with no precipitation to pass over to
dampen them. Although our current large fire threat is only
moderate (45%), the initial attack threat is very high (90%) today
due to high frequency of lightning. Thunderstorms today are capable
of producing wind gusts up to 70 MPH, which in turn could cause any
nearby lightning induced fire starts to spread rapidly and behave
erratically as well. This is all occurring over ERC values in the
90th+ percentile in the east, where the current heatwaves have
eliminated any greening-up and primed fuels for fire conditions.

Ferguson

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     014-015-019-020-317.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-009-
     010-014-015-018>020.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23