Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
743 FXUS64 KAMA 171756 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Next significant weather system looks to be on the horizon for Wednesday night through early Friday, with increased precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Breezy and gusty winds are expected to subside a bit going into this evening, with the southern TX Panhandle holding onto some 15 mph west winds. As an associated surface low to the north exits off to the east, all areas in the Panhandles should see those winds subside even more and turn to the north tomorrow morning. That wind shift to the north could be said to be a weak cold front and will be causing cooler highs across the north for Tuesday afternoon. Highs in the 60s expected across the north with lower 70s across the southern FA. Despite the cooler temperatures both today and tomorrow, temperatures are expected to stay above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A low pressure system can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery leaving the Rockies and entering the Central to Northern Great Plains. This is the system that has brought some breezy and gusty winds with slightly cooler temperatures today. As this system leaves the ridge overhead is to reestablish itself a bit and keep above normal temperatures through Wed. It is the system further upstream off the northern coast of CA at this time that may take a more favorable path to bring cooler temperatures and some prospects for moisture come Wed night/Thu. There is still a bit of uncertainty for Thu, like with any system traversing the Intermountain West and potentially impacting the combined Panhandles. For now the NBM is giving slight chance PoPs in the far southeastern TX Panhandle Wed night (ahead of the low) with PoPs increasing both in coverage and magnitude on Thu. PoPs are now as high as 60 to 70 across the eastern FA. How much precipitation that will come from this system is still up in the air. Around half of the GFS ensemble members only give a couple to few hundredths of an inch of rain while the other half give a couple to few tenths. The far southeastern TX Panhandle may tap into some instability allowing for some thunderstorms and potentially more significant rain fall while the rest of the combined Panhandle should only see regular ole showers. How fast the system moves will determine the amount of rainfall is to be had, as well as the track. However, late Friday into Saturday, conditions look to dry out as this system exits, leaving near average temps. Models do hint at another system loading off of southern CA which could bring another round of rain chances late Sunday. NBM is giving a slight chance for southeastern parts of the combined Panhandles on Sunday for now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions expected to continue through the 18Z TAF period. A period of gusty winds around 35 kts for KAMA should be coming to an end shortly with those winds speeds gradually decreasing going into the 00Z Tuesday period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36