730
FXUS64 KAMA 162323
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms in the area will provide localized
  heavy rainfall with low risk for severe storms with damaging
  winds being the primary hazard tonight and Thursday.

- Slightly above average temperatures are expected to return for
  the weekend with pockets of triple digit heat possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Cold front had reached from near Liberal to Texline at 1830 UTC.
This boundary will move little and will become the main focus for
thunderstorm development as a ridge roller disturbance works across
the area overnight and interacts with abundant moisture in place. ML
CAPE of 2000-3000 J/KG will provide enough instability to support
severe storms, but wind shear is forecast to be somewhat low and
this is the limiting factor keeping the area in lower end severe
threat categories tonight. Wind may provide the slightly greater
threat given warm mid-level temperatures, but lower end severe hail
can`t be ruled out. A 30 kt LLJ and aforementioned high moisture is
also providing a flood threat across the north. If the boundary
moves slow enough, would not be surprised to see a small localized
area or two in the OK panhandle receive 3 to 5 inches of rain. This
is supported by some more agressive high resolution models. Highest
POPs and threat will be in the OK Panhandle and far northern TX
Panhandle, but low POPs for storms along outflow are included late
tonight for even far southern counties. A flood watch may be
needed for portions of the NW Panhandles.

Thursday, much will depend on location of outflow boundaries and
cold front after tonights activity. Several high-res models show the
boundary stalling in the southern Texas Panhandle. Some show it
pushing well south to just shy of LUB, but then show it retreating
back to the southern Panhandle by afternoon. Where ever the boundary
ends up, with good SFC to h7 moisture, it will have potential to
become the focus for SCT aftn TSTM development on Thursday aftn with
strong daytime heating. It seems the areas near or just south of I-
40 are favored for the location for this initial development, but we
shall have to see. The next ridge riding s/wv will arrive by
evening. This combined with the old front and outflows will bring
the NW into play and this is where the highest POPs are shown.
Again, there will be a low end severe threat for Thursday with any
storms that form. Again, with high PWs (above the 90th percentile
for the date), the threat of locally heavy rainfall may provide the
greater threat, especially if one of these storms were to impact
urban areas (ie AMA) during the afternoon commute. A quick localized
1-1.5 inch rainfall will be possible and based on the HREF, there is
a 10-20 percent chance of 2 inch per hour rainfall rate (within 25
miles of any given point) across areas near I-40 in the afternoon
and then across the northwest Panhandles later in the evening.

Gittinger

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

H5 (mid level) ridge will meander across the Gulf Coast and Deep
South with a strengthening trend toward a high center near TN toward
the end of the period. The western end feature will extend toward W
Texas and the Panhandles over the weekend leading to warming
temperatures and relatively low TSTM chances mainly confined to the
far N and NW where southern fringes of ridge riding disturbances may
have enough influences to bring tail end of activity focused further
north across those areas. Given this, there remains a 10-20 POP Sat
across the far NW 1/4 of the area. The western edge of the trough
will get eroded by disturbances working across the ridge from the
west and even easterly waves that come all the way around the
southern side of the system along the gulf coast early next week.
Meanwhile the h7 moisture axis does extend across the area at times
from the west. There are quite a few LREF members indicating precip
chances with these waves and the general weakness that develops. The
NBM POPs are generally less than 15%, but it should be noted that is
up from less than 10 percent the previous run, so it does seem to be
trending toward some TSTM chances early next week which makes sense
based on model fields. Details on location, timing etc are not in
good agreement, but stay tuned for potential introduction of POPs
some of these periods next week. Outside of that, the main story
will be warming temperatures with lots of upper 90s and few hotpots
near 100 degrees. Doesn`t look like a setup with advisories, outside
of the canyon possibly, but these would be some of the warmer
readings of the summer thus far.

Gittinger

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

As of this evening latest radar and satellite was seeing storms
start to develop across the present boundary holding over the
northern Panhandles. These storms are already starting to create
impacts at KGUY with lightning near or around the terminals.
Latest CAM analysis does expect more showers and thunderstorms to
develop through out the night and overnight period with boundary
slowly sliding south into the southern Panhandles by late tomorrow
morning. This will likely bring impacts to all terminals with
initial threat being lightning and strong wind gust before
changing over to heavy to torrential rainfall in the overnight
hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...11