825
FXUS64 KAMA 141732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Above average temperatures persist through Saturday. Moderate to
  high chance for record high temperatures today and Saturday.

- A weak weather system arriving Sunday night brings cooler
  and windier conditions.

- A further weather system brings at least a low chance for
  precipitation for mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A ridge of high pressure remains across the southern plains for
today and Saturday. This will continue the stretch of dry and
sunny weather across the panhandles for both days. Underneath this
high pressure the panhandles will continue to see well above
normal temperatures. Today is expected to be the hottest day
within this stretch of hotter that normal weather with Saturday
being a little cooler. Since we have already seen record
temperatures from this hot period there is high confidence we will
see further record temperatures today and a moderate confidence
for the same on Saturday. In fact we can see temperatures reach
into the 90s today for our hottest spots such as Palo Duro Canyon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Sunday into early Monday there is still a high chance of a weak
weather system passing through the southern plains north of the
panhandles. This weather system is expected to be dry with no
precipitation from it occurring within the panhandles during its
passage. Instead this weather system has a high chance of causing
breezy to windy conditions across the panhandles Sunday and
Monday. Further the passage of this weather system will have a
very high chance of ending the stretch of hot weather with
temperatures dropping panhandle wide. These dry and cooler
weather conditions will then have a moderate to high chance of
persisting through much of Tuesday.

Wednesday through the rest of the week has a moderate chance of
seeing a further weather system form in the western U.S. and pass
into the southern plains. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty associated with both the strength and trajectory of
this brewing weather system. Currently the most likely outcome is
that during the passage of the weather system it will move
moisture across the panhandles. This in turn creates a low chance
for low amounts of precipitation starting on Wednesday and
lasting into Friday. There are two less likely outcomes associated
with this weather system depending on how it unfolds. The first
being for much higher amounts of rainfall as significant moisture
streaming across the panhandles. The second is that the dry slot
moves over the panhandles causing little to no precipitation.
Since both of these have much lower chances of occurring the
current forecast reflects the most likely outcome of low amounts
of precipitation. As this weather system remains in flux the
forecast has a high chance of changing in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Overnight the just above the surface increase over
KAMA causing some speed shear. The strength of this shear does
not rise high enough to be reflected in the TAF as LLWS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98