786
FXUS63 KAPX 041028
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
628 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some showers linger through midday, diminishing into the
  afternoon.

- Frost possible tonight, but especially Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Trough axis and deeper moisture shifts off to the east through the
day today, and so does the steadiest precipitation. Even still,
steep low level lapse rates and enough low level moisture within the
boundary layer may produce a few instances/areas of light showers,
generally across northwest lower MI. Any showery activity should
wane by the mid afternoon hours. Winds will shift northwest today as
well as cold advection overspreads the region, with winds gusts of
~20-30 mph on average through the day today.

Deep trough to our north pushes south tonight. This cooler airmass
over the relatively mild lakes will result in a few areas of lake
induced rain showers, mainly for eastern upper Michigan. Small
chance for a waterspout as well, based on the International Centre
for Waterspout Research. Temperatures flirt with the 30s most areas,
although the degree to which the boundary layer remains mixed will
ultimately dictate how low the temperatures drop. Frost temperature
criteria may be possible tonight, although elevated winds may retard
any significant frost formation. Collaboration with GRR has pushed
any frost headlines/products for the day crew to assess further. In
reality, the better and more widespread potential seems to be Monday
night.

Deep trough moves to the east on Monday, with any showers moving to
the east as high pressure slides to the east. Sfc high pressure
slides over northern MI Monday night, setting the stage for
aggressive radiational cooling and the potential for the coldest
night of the fall season. Current forecast has temperatures in the
upper 20s to mid 30s across a good chunk of the region away from the
immediate Lake Michigan shoreline (marine layer/cloud/wind
contributions keep LM shoreline milder). Expect frost/freeze
headlines in the future unless something changes.

The low pressure system across the Dakotas will move eastward into
Tuesday, perhaps clipping the region with warm advection rain
showers Tuesday - Tuesday night. More importantly, the pressure
gradient between this low pressure system and the aforementioned sfc
high pressure system will result in breezy conditions, with another
round of marine products.

Energy impinging from the north mid week will result in a few
chances for showers, generally of the lake induced variety, and
favoring the farther north one is. Daily high temperatures do not
fluctuate all that much, with low to mid 60s most days. It does
appear next weekend will be dry, and pretty mild.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Iso -SHRA and VCSH linger today, most locations dry and/or
drying by the afternoon. Period of MVFR CIGs most locations as
well, generally somewhere in the 14Z - 18Z timeframe before
becoming VFR. South to southwest winds become more
west to northwest through the day, 10G20-25KTs for most
locations, decreasing into the overnight. A few light showers
in the vicinity of KCIU tonight with VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JLD