158
FXUS63 KAPX 091840
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
140 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday.
  Lake effect snow likely in its wake late Wednesday through
  Thursday.

- Another clipper Friday with additional lake effect snow
  chances through the weekend, along with cold temperatures.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains over the
eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. Embedded shortwave trough
crossed northern MI this morning, now situated just downstream.
Focus quickly shifts upstream to a wave dropping into the Dakotas.
Attendant surface low following suit. This system waves southeast to
southern WI by 06z tonight and into southern Ontario by mid-
Wednesday morning. Colder air gets pulled in on the heels of renewed
northwest winds on the backside of this system Wednesday afternoon/
evening.

Forecast Details: Most widespread snow associated with this
morning`s clipper now off to our east, but a mix of lighter snow
showers and freezing drizzle linger across parts of northern MI.
Additional snow accumulation through the early evening likely under
a half inch with a coating to 0.05" of ice where freezing drizzle
falls/mixes in.

By mid-late evening, next round of snow expected to be spreading
into northwest lower, continuing to progress east/southeast through
the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Somewhat better
agreement coming into line with this morning`s suite of global and
hi-res guidance with the swath of heaviest snow likely falling
across parts of central and southern MI. Should be a pretty
impressive embedded FGEN band that sets up across part of this area,
but again, highest probabilities for this lie to our south.  That
said, still some impactful snow accum. expected across southern
parts of APX`s footprint -- namely south M-32 and to a further
extent, south of M-72. Expecting a fairly sharp cut off on the
northern edge of the snow shield. This is the least confident part
of the forecast at this time with exactly where that northern edge
cut off is, but current trends support accums tapering quickly as
you head near and north of M-32. No changes planned to the inherited
winter weather advisories -- those advised areas still forecast to
receive 2-5". A more general 1-2" toward the M-32 corridor. Largely
an inch or less north of there.

Widespread snow expected to be exiting through Wednesday morning,
clearing far southern areas near Saginaw Bay towards midday. Renewed
northwest winds on the backside of this system, gusty as times up to
25-30 mph. This will bring a return of lake effect snow showers
to the typically favored snow belts of eastern upper and northwest
lower afternoon, and more so Wednesday evening/night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wednesday night - Thursday night:  Northwest / west-northwest winds
expected to prevail Wednesday night through Thursday with lake
effect snow showers being the rule, favoring the typical snow belts
of northwest lower and eastern upper MI. Eye-popping snow amounts
may be hard to come by, however, as latest trends point toward
little in the way of synoptic help above a gradually shrinking
inversion below 5-6 kft. None the less, it`ll remain wintry in the
snowbelts with some localized advisory-level snow amounts not out of
the question. Thursday evening/night, low-level winds expected to
gradually back more west or west-southwesterly, likely pushing what
lingering lake effect snow showers remain toward the tip of the
mitt.

Friday into the weekend:  Another wave set to cross the northern
tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core
of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend.
H8 temps progged as low as around -21C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range
ENS trends continue to favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged
lake effect/enhanced event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with
highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much
of northern MI through this time frame. Given such cold
temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited,
resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an
extent, but also yield lower visibilities.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Accumulating snow continues to move across northern Michigan
the next couple hours with MVFR/IFR VSBYs expected as snow moves
over terminals. A brief lull in precipitation is expected this
afternoon, potentially improving and/or holding conditions at
MVFR with low VFR on the table by late this evening, especially
APN. However, most sites look to hold MVFR CIGs for most of the
issuance period as another round of widespread accumulating snow
moves in tonight and Wednesday. An additional several inches of
snow is expected across much of northern lower Michigan,
including TVC and MBL. Otherwise, gusty south winds will
continue to gradually turn west and weaken this evening, then
strengthen Wednesday with occasional gusts 20-25 knots possible
across all terminals.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC