Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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409 FXUS63 KAPX 080230 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Break from the rain tonight but more arrives for Saturday. - A few showers remain possible Sunday morning. Otherwise high pressure and quiet weather begins to build next week. - Temperatures begin to climb next week along with returning chances of rainfall beginning overnight Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Inherited forecast in excellent shape with no significant changes needed. Skies will continue to clear into the early overnight, with perhaps some increasing high clouds again toward morning ahead of the next approaching shortwave trough. Lows tonight in the middle 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Clouds continue to swirl around northern Michigan at mid afternoon with and upper low to the north of Georgian Bay...along with scattered showers north of M-72. But breaks for sunshine are developing along the Lake Michigan shoreline south of the Leelanau Penisula. 18z surface analysis shows a decent pressure gradient between a 995mb low near James Bay...and a 1014mb high over Arkansas that ridges northwest into the northern High Plains. Elongated upper trough/latent PV anomaly will span most of southern Canada from southern Alberta/Saskatchewan...across Ontario and into southern Quebec/New England. Upper low to our northeast this afternoon will move into New England by Saturday morning. This will be followed by another short wave trough moving along the cyclonic shear side of the polar jet axis which will lie across Lower Michigan on Saturday. Primary Forecast Concerns: Break from the rain tonight but more arrives for Saturday: Upper low pulling away tonight to be replaced on a temporary basis by short wave ridging that will cross the upper Lakes overnight/early Saturday. After a few lingering late afternoon showers expect some clearing/drying from west to east as the evening progresses. Clouds will thicken up late tonight into northwest Lower and spread across the forecast area Saturday morning along with an area of rain. Precipitation chances should be widespread...current track of stronger dynamics and some weaker stability suggests better QPF potential across Upper Michigan through Saturday afternoon (0.25- 0.50 inch in spots). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Midlevel closed low pressure with shortwave troughing currently over the Upper Great Lakes will continue the current cool and wet weather pattern into next week. Upstream midlevel ridging over the western half of the U.S will build this weekend, eventually pushing the current trough to the northeast and returning the region to a quieter weather pattern along with surface high pressure and building temperatures to a more climatological norm. Surface high pressure and sunny skies will continue for the first half of the work week as the ridge progresses towards the east coast. At the same time, a second midlevel trough currently over northern Saskatchewan will move eastward towards the southern Hudson Bay. As a result, the Great Lakes region will transition to quasi- zonal/weak troughing midlevel pattern that supports precipitation returning later next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: A few showers remain possible Sunday morning. Otherwise high pressure and quiet weather begins to build next week: Overall, no impactful weather is expected for the duration of the long term period. Best chance of showers remains at the beginning and towards the end of the long term starting with chances of showers Saturday night into the daytime Sunday. Mostly cloudy and breezy northwest conditions can be expected this Sunday, but lingering bits of low level moisture and some remaining bits energy could fire off a few showers before ridging eventually builds into the region Sunday evening. Temperatures begin to climb next week along with returning chances of rainfall beginning overnight Tuesday: Surface high pressure will result in sunny skies and temperatures slowly increasing next week. Temps will climb well above average for mid June, as highs can be expected to reach the mid 80s for most areas by Thursday and Friday. Aformentioned low pressure over the southern shore of Hudson Bay will push a couple shortwaves across the upper Great Lakes region resulting in chances of showers and storms at times next week. No heavy rainfall or severe weather is expected at this time, but evidence of returning convection starting as early as overnight Tuesday through Thursday. To early to message details, but will continue to model possible impacts to the CWA with future model runs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Skies will continue to clear through the early morning hours. Clouds will be on the increase later this morning, with rain and MVFR conditions spreading west to east across the area. Gradual improvement expected later this afternoon and evening. No significant wind concerns. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...MSB