196
FXUS63 KAPX 041034
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
634 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Near record breaking high temperatures build across the northwoods
today.

-Warm and dry weather combined with breezy winds return favorable
fire weather conditions this weekend.

-Rain chances provide some minor amounts of beneficial rain to the
Great Lakes region along with temperatures returning back to
climatological average for October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel longwave riding spanned across the
eastern half of the CONUS continues to support surface high pressure
and quiet conditions across the Great Lakes region. With the ridge
axis directly north of Michigan today, temperatures once again climb
well above normal with highs reaching near record warmth this
weekend.

Forecast Details...

Today...After a few lingering showers dissipate this morning across
northern lower, biggest story today will be the continued record
breaking heat. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 15-17 degree
celsius range. Diurnal and adiabatic heating processes at the
surface will push the majority of northern lower in the mid to upper
80s. All climate sites come within a few degrees of their highs
being broken, but best chances remain at HTL and APN as light
southwest flow will create a slight downsloping effect for these
locations.

Other factor being monitored will be the continued concern for
favorable fire weather conditions. Afternoon low level mixing will
drop dewpoints around 30%. Luckily light southerly winds with gusts
remaining below 20kts will keep most concern for red flag criteria
focused on Sunday.

Tonight...SSW pressure graident force winds begin to increase as
upstream troughing pattern progresses eastward. Surface winds and
wind gusts remain relatively low with overland speeds at less than
10 knots gusting to the low teens. Skies remain mostly clear leading
to overnight temperatures cooling to the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday... Midlevel ridging pattern will provide the northwoods with
one more day of above average warmth. Probabilities of record
breaking heights remain low (20-40%), but temps reaching the low 80s
for the majority of interior northern lower and mid to upper 70s for
areas near the shorelines. Gusty southwest winds combined with the
dry and warm weather will be a concern regrading fire weather.
Latest guidance continues to depict afternoon mixing dew points into
the upper 40s to low 50s producing RH values to near critical
thresholds for interior northern lower. At this time, chances for an
elevated fire weather day remains likely with lower chances for a
Red Flag Warning needing to be issued.

Monday and Tuesday... Large scale midlevel low pressure develops over
Hudson Bay early next week. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary
drapes south through the center of the country and moves across the
Great Lakes region this Monday into Monday night. A lack of deep
atmospheric moisture will keep total rainfall amounts low, with
highest probabilities of QPF remaining less than a quarter inch at
this time.

Wednesday Through Friday Outlook...Shortwave troughing currently
over northern Alaska progresses across Canada this weekend and early
next week before settling just north of the Great Lakes region by
midweek next week. A cool and dry Canadian air mass will settle into
the northwoods returning temperatures back to climatological normal
for mid October. Probabilities of precipitation remain low through
the remainder of the week as this pattern supports surface high
pressure. Some light showers remain possible from the potential of
random height disturbance tracking across the midwest, but the
remainder of next week will continue overall quiet and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions through the period under just a few passing high
clouds and high based cumulus. Light winds this morning will
become a bit more gusty out of the southwest this afternoon.
Gusts are expected to subside again this evening. Expecting a
few hours of low level wind shear tonight at KCIU.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB