096
FXUS63 KAPX 031149
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
649 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow turns to lake effect snow today and tonight.
  Focus will be in the E UP w/moderate to heavy snow possible.

- Active weather remains late week and into the weekend with
  multiple chances for snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Deep troughing across Ontario and north of there will swing
southeast through the day today, with associated low pressure system
and attendant cold front extending southward into northern MI. Low
level convergence from this feature will aid in producing a
band of snow across the region during the day time hours, with
an eventual transition to more northwest lake effect snow
showers later Wednesday, Wednesday night, and into the first
half of Thursday as temperatures in the lower portions of the
atmosphere become sufficiently cold. What I presume to be lake
aggregate troughing, or its influence, and associated low level
wind direction in the wake of this low pressure system will
result in a tricky forecast in regards to snowfall amounts and
intensity across the E UP.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Accumulating snow and breezy conditions:

Swath of snow is expected during the daytime hours on Wednesday,
with a local enhancement in Emmet county possible due to the
southwest flow ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Thus,
outside of the general ~1 to 3 inches today and tonight for most
locations (excluding E UP, local snowbelts) this will be the
one of the areas where isolated higher amounts may be possible.
The combination of falling snow and wind gusts in the 20s (mph)
will lead to occasionally poor visibilities in spots as well.

Transition to northwest lake effect is expected during Wednesday
afternoon/evening, and will continue through the first half of
Thursday. Best low level moisture will be to the north across the E
UP, and thus, not expecting huge impacts from accums across the
typical northwest snowbelts in northern lower. Could there be a +/-
4 inch report in Mancelona by the time all is said and done?
Sure, but the gentle nature of the accumulation in this region
will preclude any headlines. Most impacts will likely be across
the E UP.

Speaking of which, a better atmospheric profile, both in regards to
temperature, moisture, and low level convergence, will exist across
northern portions of Chippewa county tonight into Thursday. Question
is, will some of the dominant bands of lake effect drift/set up
south enough for the SOO and northern Chippewa county to be at
play for warning level snows, and how much will the very cold
temperatures at the time of this lake effect snow influence the
snow ratios and eventual snowfall amounts. Forecast soundings
all show the DGZ tanking close to the sfc, eating away at the
depth later tonight into early Thursday, certainly a negative to
some degree in regards to accumulations. Only a few pieces of
guidance at this time keep the dominant lake band to the north
of the SOO across portions of the higher terrain of Canada,
which is not unreasonable as well. Consequently, the forecast
for snow across Chippewa county is quite volatile, but this
probably constitutes a high impact (for a section of the area)
low probability scenario.

Current thinking is to go with a high level advisory with
isolated amounts perhaps approaching warning level, and upgrade
if needed in the subsequent shift. That being said, after
another look and new snow map, decided to go with a Winter Storm
Warning for northern Chippewa county. Whether with the snow
amounts or the extreme visby reductions (very cold during the
morning hours leading to blinding snowfall), there will likely
be significant problems in this region if the current guidance
holds, esp for the Thursday morning commute. Additionally,
really could not ignore some of the model output, and even if it
is overdone, there could still be close to warning level snows.
For instance, some of the hi- res models are spitting out quite
a bit of snow, even the ensemble versions. 00Z HREF (DESI, SLR
10:1) shows ~4 to 8" with locally 10"+, which may be a decent
starting point for this forecast cycle, which transitioned into
6 to 12" with locally higher amounts. We`ll see how this holds
up as there is still potential for banding to be farther north
than currently forecast by many pieces of guidance, but given
this high end potential and small temporal scale, certainly felt
the need to introduce some sort of headline at this time, just
so happened to be a Winter Storm Warning.

By Thursday afternoon, winds shift southwest cutting off any
northwest flow lake effect. Thus, period for this accumulation
will be ~18Z Wed (really after 00Z Thurs) to 18Z Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Day 2-3 (Thursday - Friday):

Northwest flow lake effect will continue during the early portions
of Thursday for eastern upper. By the afternoon, however, low
pressure system developing across Canada will shift winds to the
southwest, shutting off the accumulating snow across Chippewa
county. This system will dive to the southeast, like previous system
earlier in the week due to the upper flow, and produce more snow
showers (lake induced/effect) across the region mainly Friday
through the early portions of the weekend.

Days 4-7 (Saturday - Tuesday):

Broad troughing will remain predominantly to the north of the region
this weekend with various shots of colder air and snow chances.
We`ll have to see how far south some of these pieces of energy drop
and thus the duration of any snow events. The active and snowy
period looks to continue, the intensity a little hard to discern at
this time but at least some light to moderate accumulations
possible. Sunday night looks to be quite cold as well with single
digits above zero, lower for some, possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Widespread light snow will continue across much of northern Michigan
this morning as a cold front swings from west to east across the
area. Southwest winds will switch to northwest by this afternoon,
gusting to 20-30kts at times through tonight. A mix of IFR/MVFR CIGs
this morning will gradually improve with time today as the front
pushes east, becoming VFR for many areas later this evening. Lake
effect snow showers are expected to kick in later today behind the
frontal passage, especially across the eastern U.P. where snowfall
accumulations of 6-12" will be possible near PLN with significant
VSBY reductions later tonight and beyond the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for MIZ086-087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC