614
FXUS63 KAPX 041913
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
213 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather at times through Friday night, including low
  thunderstorm chances this afternoon, and rain/snow chances
  Thursday night & Friday night.

- Cooler/more normal temperatures Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is
centered over MN this afternoon with a warm front well to our north
across northern Ontario into Quebec. Trailing cold front sits to our
west, draped from the western U.P. to southern Lake Michigan into
the TN Valley. This boundary will make headway into northern MI this
evening, clearing east of the area tonight. Secondary cold front
expected to arrive late in the day Thursday before this system
shifts east entirely by Friday morning. All in all, occasionally
unsettled weather expected through the remainder of the work week
before high pressure settles in this weekend. A couple of northern
stream waves possible early-mid next week, which may graze the area
with additional precip chances.

Forecast Details: Periods of showers are expected to continue this
afternoon, with at least low chances for a few embedded pre-frontal
thunderstorms given the expectation of a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE
in place by later this afternoon/early evening. While not expected
to be severe, locally and brief gusty winds in/near thunderstorms
may result. Otherwise, showery conditions are expected to persist at
times through the day Thursday as low pressure slowly drifts across
the northern Great Lakes.

While Thursday will be a good 15-20 degrees cooler than today, even
colder temperatures are expected to filter in post secondary cold
frontal passage Thursday evening. Lingering synoptic support
combined with increasing over-lake instability will likely result in
additional lake-enhanced showers Thursday night. Latest trends
support rain may mix with or change over to a bit of wet snow,
especially across portions of the eastern U.P. and interior higher
terrain of northern lower. Suppose minor snow accumulation is
possible in some areas (0.5" or less), but ground temperatures
should still be pretty warm to limit this. By midday Friday, any
remaining showers should be back to all rain with decreasing
confidence heading through Friday night as we should eventually be
warm advecting, likely bringing an end to any lingering lake effect
shower activity. Just how quickly this shuts off remains the
question, and if it extends far enough into the evening, suppose
that rain could mix back with a bit of wet snow -- again primarily
limited to inland areas.

Trending precipication-free for at least a good chunk of the weekend
into early next week. High temps Saturday into the 40s rise back
into the 50s for Sunday and Monday. Potential exists for a couple of
northern stream waves to scrape the area, perhaps as early as
Sunday/Monday and again towards the middle of next week. Precip
chances with these waves look low, but non-zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions currently due to skies generally BKN-OVC
AOA 3 kft (KMBL is the exception at 1.5 kft). S/SSE winds of 5
to 12kts with G15 to G20kts will linger through tonight. LLWS at
2kft of 30 to 40 kts will linger through 20z. Winds aloft will
slightly weaken, but LLWS of 15 to 25 kts will be present for
much of the period. Best timing of -SHRA will align with a
FROPA, moving through from SW to NE between 22z and 02z. Winds
become SW/W behind this with G20 to 25kts (possibly a 30kt
gust). Winds will remain elevated but gradually slacken through
the night, becoming generally 5 to 10kts with G10 to 15kts by
14z. VCSH will be present during this time. MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis will be present after 00z and linger through the end of the
period. A strong FROPA will move through and turn winds NW after
18z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ346-348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...ELD