596
FXUS63 KAPX 151025
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
625 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High pressure continues quiet conditions today and tonight.

-Rounds of showers begin Thursday night and last through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel ridging begins to build today across the
central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains settled over
Lake Superior continuing this pattern of (mostly) sunny skies and
quiet weather through the entirety of the short term period.

Forecast Details...

Today...Mid level cloud cover will slowly start to clear out of the
CWA this morning as subsidence to the northwest returns cool(ish)
dry air mass from Canada. Daytime temperatures remain around
climatological average with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most
locations of eastern upper and northern lower. Manistee county and
surrounding towns remain slightly warmer and light northerly flow
will push temps into the low 60s via downsloping.

Tonight...High pressure continues clear skies and quiet weather
tonight. Only potential impact will come from rapidly dropping
temperatures due to radiational cooling processes. Dew points
falling to near or below freezing will allow expected widespread
overnight lows around 30 degrees across interior northern lower and
eastern upper while areas closer to the shorelines remain in the
mid/upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thursday and Friday...Midlevel deep troughing with closed low
pressure currently over the southwestern US will progress northeast
this week while weakening. Enough energy to carry cyclogenesis
across the plains will return rounds of precipitation to the CWA as
early as Thursday night. The first round will come in the form of
weak stratiform rainfall ahead of the system`s disheveled warm
front. Highest QPF probabilities remain north of the bridge with a
general quarter to half inch expected while most of northern lower
will see totals ranging from a trace to a few tenths. As the Great
Lakes region moves into the warm sector, high temperatures return to
the mid/upper 60s this Thursday and Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...Ongoing low pressure will continue to track
northeast until it reaches Hudson Bay this weekend. Attached cold
front will track across the CWA this Saturday returning convective
driven showers. Medium probabilities (40% to 60%) of additional QPF
remaining between a tenth to quarter inch. Northwest flow behind the
system combined with lingering low level moisture will continue
light rainfall this Sunday, with little to no additional QPF
expected at this time.

Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Midlevel Troughing pattern will
continue to dig through the Great Lakes region into Monday and
potentially Tuesday. Continued lingering showers remain possible as
cool northwest flow delivers additional lake enhanced showers. Some
guidance is hinting at potential shortwave ridging that could
potentially dry conditions across the region, but more details on
the actual solution will come with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR through the majority of the forecast period. Will see some
high cloud this morning (perhaps some -SHRA thru 13z at the
latest for MBL, but still remaining VFR) scour out into the
afternoon, amid a light NNW to NNE flow regime across the board.
Perhaps some fair weather CU ~3,000ft this afternoon, but not
anticipating anything problematic. Winds go calm tonight under
clear skies... setting the stage for some BR to perhaps BR
development at most sites, which could easily lead to VSBY and
CIG restrictions if a bank of dense fog can materialize at any
given TAF site.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD