001
FXUS63 KAPX 260253
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1053 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool nights with fog, perhaps frost possible

- Very quiet into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Shortwave trof overhead, contributing to the high clouds now
present, will drift southward to the southern lakes and OH Valley.
Cloud cover will continue to erode nw to se thru the afternoon and
evening hours. Pinched upper ridge will then remain overhead
this weekend and early next week, as slow-moving nor`easter
contributes to a stalled upper pattern.

The relatively slow clearing today, with delayed diurnal heating/
mixing, should leave us more prone to fog tonight. Winds will be
effectively calm tonight (outside of lake breezes, we have little
wind this afternoon). Also not impossible for some spotty mid 30s
for lows tonight, and corresponding patchy frost.

Better mixing will be seen on Saturday, and there is drier air
available aloft to mix down. For fire wx users, have lowered
guidance dew points/RHs, which reach as low as 30 percent Sat
afternoon between CAD and MBL. Winds remain light/variable, so not
overly concerned.

Our next active wx looks unlikely until midweek, Tue night and
beyond. The nor`easter low opens up and ejects, and the train
behind it can start moving. There will also be an infusion of
eastern Pacific tropical moisture into the sw states, though for
now the northern and southern streams will only marginally
interact, at least thru midweek. Monday and Tuesday are looking
like the warmest days of this dry spell.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Efficient radiational cooling owing to clear skies and calm winds
has already lead to patchy FG/BR development across parts of
northern Michigan -- including at PLN and MBL. More significant VSBY
restrictions are expected with time tonight into early Sunday
morning with the potential for drops to 1/4SM or less. FG/BR will
dissipate quickly after sunrise as daytime mixing ensues, bringing
VFR conditions back to northern Michigan into Sunday evening. Light
NE winds around 5 kts are anticipated through the day Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...DJC