920
AXNT20 KNHC 150431
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between
the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low.
This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean,
reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela
through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun
morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and
downwind of these winds.

Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave environment.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to
20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental
conditions are conducive for some development over the next few
days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds
next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a
medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next
7 days.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W
from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the wave environment.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends
southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,
leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the
forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to
28N82W.

For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to
moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin tonight.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of
81W in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds
to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with
axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands
tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely,
strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on
Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward
toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater
Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon.
Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at
26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are
fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft.
Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with
seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate
for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across
the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind
shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds
on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday
before dissipating by midweek.

$$
ERA