782
AXNT20 KNHC 300428
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0428 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26.5W from 20N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is occurring near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. It is within a plume of Sahara Dust,
and there is no significant convection occurring near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78.5W from 19N
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. No significant
convection is depicted in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20.5N17W then extends
southwestward to 10N44W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring from 05.5N to 08N between 30W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front meanders westward from northern Florida across
the Gulf States offshore waters to beyond southeast Louisiana.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Big
Bend. A surface trough over Florida, is supporting numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection over the southeastern Gulf
including the Straits of Florida. A another surface trough has
been analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula and it is supporting
numerous moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Light to gentle variable winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail across
the basin, except for moderate NE winds over the eastern Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure dominates the area. A
stationary front extending from just inland northern Florida
westward to southeastern Louisiana will linger through the
weekend, then shift southward some as a cold front early next week
as low pressure develops along it and tracks northeastward to
east of the southeastern U.S. coast. The front will help maintain
unsettled weather conditions, with locally hazardous winds and
seas mainly along and just offshore the northern Gulf coast
through the weekend. Some of these conditions may spread southward
some over the offshore waters. The weak gradient in place will
maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to
trigger isolated showers across the southeastern basin, including
the waters near the ABC Islands. Similar synoptic conditions are
producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms near the
coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, and over the northwestern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and 8 ft seas are
evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the north-central and
west-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
seen near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
currently affecting the NW Caribbean will continue into the
weekend as a tropical wave moves across the region. Another
tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles and will move
across the eastern Caribbean this weekend with little increase in
moisture. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure in combination with
low pressure over northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong
trades along with moderate to rough seas across much of the
central Caribbean through early next week. The coverage of these
winds is forecast to shrink starting early on Tue. Winds will also
pulse to strong force at night this weekend in the Gulf of
Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda
across 31N73W to northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring near this front. The interaction of this front with
and upper level trough is resulting in numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection from 22.5N to 30N between 76W and
Florida coast. A surface trough has been analyzed from 31N63W to
24N68W, and this feature combined with convergent SE winds are
producing scattered moderate convection north of 22N between 62W
and 70W. Another surface trough extends from 29N59W to 22N56W,
leading to scattered thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 50W and
60W.

The subtropical ridge related to a 1026 mb high near 36N28W is
supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
south of 20N between 35W and 65W/Lesser Antilles. Mainly gentle
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 65W and
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Moderate to locally fresh E
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail north of 20N and east of 55W.
Farther east, fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail north of
17N and east of 20W. Seas in these waters are 7 to 11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
near 31N73W to 30N77W, to inland northern Florida and continuing
well west from there. The combination of this feature with an
upper level trough passing east of NE Florida is resulting in
scattered to numerous showers across most of the western half of
the offshore waters. Low pressure is expected to form along the
front west of the area and track ENE to offshore the southeastern
United States Sat night through Mon. As this happens, the
stationary front will transition to a cold front that will slowly
sink southward through late Mon. Behind it, strengthening high
pressure will surge southward along the southeastern U.S. coast
increasing the gradient behind the front leading to fresh
northeast to east winds N of 29N and W of 79W Mon night into Tue.
Expect for the scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
through the weekend, except into early next week for the northwest
portion of the area. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain in
control of the general weather pattern providing for a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic wind flow.

$$ KRV