803
AXNT20 KNHC 012134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1029
mb high pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressure over
NW Africa will continue to support strong to gale-force N-NE
winds and rough to very rough seas in the Agadir region through at
least 02/0600 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to the
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave in the far E Atlantic is near 21W,
from 03N to 17N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
from 08N to 16N between 14W and 30W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle or later part of this
week. This system is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic throughout the week. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance of formation in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The axis of a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is near
48W, from 03N to 19N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No
significant convection is noted near this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 84W,
south of 19N, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is observed S of 15N and W of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues to 09N29W to 10N38W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 10N46W. It resumes near 10N50W and
continues westward to 10N61W. Aside from the convection noted in
the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 10N between 30W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida to Baffin
Bay, Texas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 2-4 ft are N of the front. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
102 ft are elsewhere across the gulf.

For the forecast, the front will remain stationary and gradually
dissipate through Tue. The front will be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms into mid week. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place
will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
locally moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure is over the Atlantic waters N of the
area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
over colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds in the south
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere E of
80W. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the
4-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure in combination with low
pressure over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh
trades along with moderate seas across much of the central
Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
In addition, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the Agadir region issued by Meteo-France.

A stationary front extending across the western Atlantic through
31N72W to 1010 mb low pressure off Vero Beach, Florida. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is found E and SE of the front.
fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail W of the front.
High pressure generally prevails elsewhere N of 20N, anchored by
a 1029 mb high centered near 37N29W. Outside of the gale force
winds, moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 35W, reaching
strong speeds off the coast of Africa. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over these waters. Elsewhere W of 35W, gentle to moderate
winds prevail. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range elsewhere W of 60W,
and 4-6 ft between 35W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will persist through Thu.
Expect fresh to strong NE winds with moderate to rough seas north
of the front through this evening, and moderate to fresh NE winds
tonight through Tue morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with this frontal boundary will affect the Florida
seaboard, and the northern and central Bahamas through Fri.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the pattern from the
central Atlantic through the Bahamas, supporting gentle to
moderate breezes and mostly moderate seas.

$$
AL