789
AXNT20 KNHC 191740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
runs southwestward to 10N20W. An ITCZ continues westward from
10N20W across 07N40W to just north of Guyana at 09N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south
of the ITCZ/monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between the Liberia
coast and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up
to 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W and 60W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms along the
Caribbean coast of Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the Yucatan
Channel, including part of the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present across
the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are
found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas will occur over the Gulf through Fri as
high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern
U.S. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each
afternoon and evening through this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh
SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf late this weekend
as low pressure strengthens in the south-central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is creating widely scattered moderate convection
at the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage and Lesser
Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at
the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3
ft   Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia each night through
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front meanders west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N56W to the northwest Bahamas. A surface
trough is seen just south of the front near 28N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is found near the front/trough north of 22N
between 51W and 65W. Another stationary front curves southwestward
from the northeastern Atlantic across 30N35W to 24N42W. Widely
scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either side of
this boundary. Another surface trough is triggering widely scattered
moderate convection from 20N to 24N between 62W and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen north of 25N
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large northerly
swell dominate the rest of the Atlantic north of 20N between 35W
and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N
to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh easterly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted.
Gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba, and through the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the northeastern
Gulf of America and the southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri.
Looking ahead, increasing SW winds and building seas may occur
offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front
moving through the southeastern U.S.

$$

Chan