170
AXNT20 KNHC 111035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N18W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 04N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has entered the northern Gulf, extending from 30N85W
to 26N97W. To the S, a surface trough is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Yucatan Channel and the
Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending
southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest of the
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are present
at the northeastern Gulf and offshore of New Orleans. Gentle to
moderate N to NE to SE winds and slight seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly push across the E
Gulf today before dissipating by Fri. The front will be
accompanied by fresh NW to N winds. Afterwards, conditions across
the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next couple of days as
subtle high pressure prevails. The next cold front should reach
the N waters on Sun with increasing winds and building seas behind
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Dominican Republic and adjacent waters.
To the W, another trough extends across the Yucatan Channel with
similar activity. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas
are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds with moderate seas are at the north-central basin.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda-Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to
produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and E
Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will be fresh to strong with rough seas in
large E swell through early next week. Some of the swell will
also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the Lesser Antilles.
A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Mon with increasing
winds and seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary has transitions into a surface
trough, analyzed from 31N58W to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of the trough between 61W-78W. To the W,
another surface trough is analyzed along the east coast of
Florida. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge prevails, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 27N44W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and moderate seas are noted
offshore from northeastern Florida ahead of the next cold front.
Otherwise, moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and rough
seas in moderate to large northerly swell exist north of 22N
between 55W and the Florida east coast. At the central Atlantic
north of 23N between 35W and 42W, light to gentle winds and rough
seas prevail in large mixed swell. For the tropical Atlantic,
fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are present. For the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate
ESE to SE winds and moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the W-central Atlantic
will dissipate this morning. The next cold front will extend from
near 31N74W to the Florida Straits this morning, to 31N62W to the
Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and dissipating in our NE waters
from 31N55W to 27N62W Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead
and behind the front will be fresh to strong through Fri.
Additionally, rough seas due to mixed SE and N swell will continue
to impact the waters south of 25N east of 65W this morning and
extend through early next week. Winds will improve across forecast
waters Fri night through the weekend. Another cold front will
reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun afternoon with
increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

$$
ERA