169
AXNT20 KNHC 151731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico: A Central
American Gyre (CAG), which is a broad low to mid level cyclonic
circulation centered over the Central American continent,
continues to develop. Widespread deep convection driven by the CAG
is expected this weekend through Friday June 21. Heavy rainfall
with this event is expected along the Pacific coast of Chiapas
State of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and northwestern
Nicaragua. This heavy rainfall may cause life- threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of hilly terrain. Heavy
rainfall is also possible across Quintana Roo, Yucatn, Tabasco,
and Veracruz this week. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts
from your local weather forecast and emergency management offices
for specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 20W, from 15N southward, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the monsoon trough
section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 53W this
morning based on Upper Air sounding data from Cayenne, French
Guiana. The wave extends from 17N southward. It is moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between
51W and 59W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 77W south of
15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough section. This wave will soon be absorbed into the
broad low to mid level cyclonic circulation associated with the
Central American Gyre described in the Special Features sections.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters passes off the coast of Africa near
16N16W to 08N20W to 05N33W. The ITCZ continues from 05N33W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N east
of 28W.

The Central American Gyre described in the Special Features is
lifting the East Pacific Monsoon Trough north across the western
Caribbean. This monsoon trough currently extends from 1008 mb low
pressure near 12N84W along the coast of Nicaragua to 11N74W in NW
Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
08N to 15N west of 74W, including within the Gulf of Honduras.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on HEAVY
RANFALL across Quintana Roo, Yucatn, Tabasco, and Veracruz this
week.

A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay, FL to the central
Gulf near 25N87W. Another surface trough extends from 22N85W to
1008 mb low pressure near 18N92W along the coast of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is in the SE Gulf, Florida Straits,
and W Atlantic from 23N to 26N between 77W and 87W. Satellite
scatterometer data just received indicates a surge of fresh to
strong S to SE winds from 24N to 26N between 83W and 87W, with
seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, E to NE winds are gentle to
moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface troughs will shift
NW and dissipate through tonight. A broad low to middle level
cyclonic circulation, a Central American Gyre, is centered over
the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this morning, and is
expected to become better organized this weekend, as it drifts
westward. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical
cyclone to develop from this broad area of low pressure, and a
tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf during
the middle part of next week. Active convection across the
southeast Gulf this morning, along with increasing winds and
building seas, are expected with this system in the early to mid
part of next week, mainly impacting the south-central and
northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on HEAVY
RANFALL across Quintana Roo and Yucatn this week.

Please read the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for information on
active strong convection in the W Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh E to SW winds prevail over the central and
western Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas across these waters. Gentle to
moderate trades are noted in the E Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Central American Gyre will bring fresh to
strong SE winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean over the next
few days. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the
western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Tue in
association with the gyre.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1015 mb low pressure centered near 28N77W just north of the
Bahamas, with a trough extending to Cape Canaveral, FL, and
another trough extending northeast of the low out of the area. Scattered
moderate convection is in the SE Gulf, Florida Straits, and W
Atlantic from 23N to 26N between 77W and 87W. A couple of weak
troughs are across the western and central Atlantic waters.
Weather across the Atlantic is guided by 1030 mb high pressure
centered north of the area. Satellite scatterometer from this
morning indicates moderate or weaker trades across most of the
basin, with 4-6 ft seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, NE winds are
fresh between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde, with 6-8 ft seas
in this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough north of the Bahamas
will shift eastward and exit the region through early next week,
with active convection continuing ahead of it. Looking ahead,
expect fresh E winds west of 70W by late Tue, as high pressure
builds north of the area, behind the exiting trough.

$$
Mahoney