201
AXNT20 KNHC 060842
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude
tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central
tropical Atlantic, approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter
part of this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of
this system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the
next 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W from 20N southward, moving west at 5
to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.

Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 59.5W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 17N to 19.5N between 57W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 19N16W and
continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure located near
08.8N32.8W (AL95), to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to
09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to
08N between 12W and 20W, and from 05N to 10N between 41W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convection associated with a weak trough of low pressure located
over the northwest Gulf has dissipated. An upper level trough
extends from eastern Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. This upper level
trough is supporting scattered moderate convection across the
same area. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds persist over the NE
Gulf, particularly N of 28N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within this winds.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail,
except for moderate NE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, elongated low pressure across the NW Gulf and a
stationary front across the NE Gulf coasts will drift northward
and inland on Mon. High pressure across the eastern U.S. will
build modestly across the Gulf basin late Mon throughout the week,
leading to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas
through late Tue, becoming NE to E through the remainder of the
week. Expect occasional locally fresh winds in the northeastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL95.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. Light to moderate trade
winds prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are within these
winds. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in N swell are noted across the
NE Atlantic passages, including the Mona and Anegada Passages, and
waters in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. An upper-level low
is spinning over the eastern part of the basin while a diffluent
pattern aloft is observed elsewhere. This pattern is helping to
induce convection over the western part of the Caribbean,
especially W of 76W, including Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica as well as parts of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will
gradually subside early this week. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds
will persist across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the northwestern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, each night through the
middle of the week. A broad area of low pressure associated with a
tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form this week as it moves quickly across the central
tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by
the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, expect
an increase in winds and seas with this system by the end of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on
Invest AL95.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N42W and
extends westward to 27N55W to the central Bahamas to a weak 1012
mb low pressure near 23N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong easterly winds are
N of the frontal boundary with seas 8 to 12 ft. High pressure
continues to dominates the western Atlantic in the wake of the
front. Farther east, a 1026 mb high pressure is analyzed midway
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient
between this system and a surface trough over NW Africa supports
fresh to locally strong NE winds between the Canary Islands, and
offshore Western Sahara. These winds also cover the waters from
19N to 25N E of 30W to the coast of W Africa. Rough seas are
within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are observed across
the tropical Atlantic with moderate to rough seas in NW to N
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell
across the regional waters will slowly subside from north to south
over the central Atlantic early this week. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds will prevail north of a stationary front, extending from
the central Atlantic near 27N55W through the central Bahamas and
Florida Straits, through late Tue before winds slowly diminish
midweek as the front drifts northward and dissipates. A broad area
of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this week as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the
latter part of this week. Regardless of development, expect an
increase in winds and seas over the SE waters with this system by
the end of the week.

$$
KRV