332
AXNT20 KNHC 080616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf, and will steadily
sink southeastward through Monday night. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and rough seas are expected to follow behind the front
across the western and north-central Gulf. These winds will reach
near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz Mon afternoon through late
Mon evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish Tue
into Wed as the front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan
Channel and Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across
the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
southern Sierra Leone to 06N15W, then extends southwestward to
06N16W. An ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N23W to 04N45W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 19N between 22W and 31W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends west-southwestward from a 1012 mb low over
Tampa, Florida to west-central Gulf. Further west, another cold
front curves southwestward from near New Orleans to beyond the
coastal border of Texas and Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 40 nm south of the
first cold front. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present offshore from Naples and Key West,
Florida. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft
are present behind the second cold front across the northwestern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE to SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
are seen at the east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to S to
SW winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the second cold front will weaken further
tonight as it drifts southeastward. The second cold front is
expected to overtake the first front on Mon as it sweeps
southeastward across the basin through Tue. This will lead to
fresh to strong NE to N winds and building seas in the wake of
this front. Winds may reach near gale level in the northwestern
Gulf tonight into early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into
Wed as the front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan
Channel and Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across
the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will
persist late Wed through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection or weather
in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft in the eastern and central basin. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the basin near 24N will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas east of
84W through Fri, except trades will become fresh to strong across
the central Caribbean and the eastern part of the southwestern
Caribbean starting late Tue night. Moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail west of 84W. Long-period
NE to E swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters
and passages of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night. A weakening
cold front is expected to approach the northwestern Caribbean on
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida
through Wed night before dissipating. High pressure will build
across the eastern Gulf of America by the middle of next week,
leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south-central
Caribbean into late next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front runs northeastward from central Florida to beyond
30N78W. Scattered heavy downpours and isolates Strong
thunderstorms are noted up to 150 nm south of this front. Farther
east, a surface trough near 28N70W is causing patchy showers up to
100 nm along either side of this feature. Convergent trade winds
are generating scattered moderate convection near the coast of
Guyana and Suriname. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate S to SW to W winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft north
of 22N between 50W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. At the
eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong SW to W winds with 10 to 13 ft
are evident north of 25N between 35W and 50W. Otherwise, light to
gentle winds and 7 to 9 ft are seen from 20N to 25N. For the
tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted.
Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and
moderate to rough seas are near the front and east of 60W. These
winds and seas will shift eastward tonight as the front
dissipates. A complex low pressure system and strong cold front
will move into the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Mon,
supporting widespread strong to near gale-force winds north of
27N, and building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through
Tue evening. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the
northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue afternoon, then
gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed as the low
pressure shifts well NE of the area. Large north swell will move
into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$

Chan