277
FXUS61 KBGM 201135
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High clouds this morning giveway to afternoon sunshine
across the area along with seasonably mild temperatures. Clouds
increase tonight, with a chance for a few showers arriving on Friday
as a weak weather system pushes through the region. Cool high
pressure builds in for Saturday with decreasing clouds expected. A
weak warm frontal system passes by to the north on Sunday bringing
more clouds a few showers to Central NY, with mostly sunny skies
prevailing in Northeast PA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds and some patchy fog will be around early this morning.
The high clouds move our rather quickly from west to east by mid to
late morning, with mainly sunny skies expected this afternoon. A
light south wind will boost daytime highs up into the 40s areawide.
Quiet weather tonight, with increasing clouds expected. Cant rule
out a shower heading toward daybreak Friday, especially along and
north of I-90. A system will be to our south on Friday, with a weak
front also passing by to our north at the same time. This will bring
increasing clouds over the region, along with a slight chance for a
few showers...with increasing PoPs up north again near the I-90
corridor. Daytime highs will be even milder on Friday, reaching the
upper 40s to lower 50s, despite the cloud cover. This mild trend
will be due to breezy southwest winds developing, between 8-15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will move by to our south across the Mid-
Atlantic region Friday night. Some of the rain may spread north into
portions of NE PA (temperatures will be mild enough for all rain). A
cold front will be pressing down from the north across Central NY at
the same time Friday night. Winds turn northwesterly and it should
be generally dry for CNY, with lows in the 30s areawide. Saturday
features the colder NW flow pattern, with lake effect and upslope
strato-cu clouds likely lingering through the morning or even early
afternoon hours. Eventually high pressure starts to move in from the
Central Great lakes, bringing partly sunny skies by afternoon.
Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 30s to mid-
40s for most locations. High pressure will be overhead for Saturday
night, with mainly clear skies and colder overnight lows in the 20s.
 A warm front pushes by to our north on Sunday, bringing increasing
clouds and even a chance for a few showers up across the I-90
corridor of CNY. Further south the Twin Tiers look to stay dry,
partly sunny and mild...Northeast PA should be mostly sunny and mild
as well on Sunday with highs well into the 40s expected. A few
showers lingering in the cold NW flow pattern across Central NY
Sunday night; otherwise it will be partly cloudy and not as cold.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday will feature mostly sunny, dry and seasonably mild conditions
with high pressure in place over the forecast area. The next fast
moving weather system approaches from the SW late Monday night,
bringing chances for a few late night rain or snow showers. A period
of rain overspreads the area Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with mild
temperatures persisting. A strong southwest flow, and warm air
advection will boost temperatures well up into the 50s on Wednesday
over the region, with a slight chance to low end chance for
occasional showers around. There are timing and positional
differences with an expected cold frontal passage, and developing
upper level troughing by next Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). See next
paragraph for a deeper dive into the details on this extended period.

Based on the 12z ensemble guidance suite, cluster 1 and 2 favor a
deeper more amplified trough (lower 500mb heights) over the
Northeast US by 00z on November 28th. These clusters (1 & 2)
represent around 61% of the total ensemble guidance sampled.
Meanwhile clusters 3 & 4 favor higher 500mb heights than the
multi-model mean over the Northeast US; representing about 39%
of the guidance suite. Most of this variance can be attributed
to the depth/amplitude of the trough over the Eastern Great
Lakes, with still some of the variance due to the timing or
position of the trough as it heads eastward out of the Great
Plains region. Summing it up, there remains a good deal of model
uncertainty in trough depth and timing as it heads east around
or just after Thanksgiving...however once it arrives, expect a
potentially significant cool down, with below average temperatures
becoming favored for Central NY and Northeast PA in the upcoming
8-14 day period...along with above average precipitation amounts
favored as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the area through the TAF period
as high pressure settles over the region. Mostly clear skies are
expected through the evening hours. MVFR ceilings will work
their way back into ELM/BGM/ITH/SYR overnight as a weak
disturbance moves in from the west. AVP and RME may also see
MVFR ceilings but confidence was not high enough to include them
in this TAF set.


Outlook...

Friday...Off and on periods of rain during the day and
snow/wintry mix overnight with associated restrictions.

Saturday through Sunday...High pressure builds back into the
region with mostly VFR conditions expected.

Monday...Mainly VFR; Low chance for showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC