664
FXUS61 KBGM 272347
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
747 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly cloudy tonight with a few showers around. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Some storms can be strong with gusty winds and heavy
rain. Conditions improve for Sunday as high pressure builds in
with drier weather. Seasonably warmer temperatures will return
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

With the stable marine layer remaining in place over much of
the region this evening, cloud cover was increased the next
several hours and nearly all thunder chances removed through
early tomorrow with the exception being over the far western
counties where there may be a rumble or two through this
evening. Temperatures continue to run cool outside of the
northern and western Finger Lakes, so blended in the NMB10th
percentile to lower temperatures the rest of the evening. Cloud
cover was increased tomorrow afternoon and evening with the
potential round of heavy, gusty thunderstorms.

330 PM Update...

The region is placed southwest of a stationary front keeping
conditions cool and stable. As the front pushes further east it
brings moisture into the northern portion of our region kicking off
showers. Otherwise it should remain relatively quiet this
afternoon elsewhere. Temperatures remain cool, blended in NBM
10th percentile to get closer to observations. The stationary
front continues to progresses east with additional isolated to
scattered showers expected overnight. Main focus looks to be
across the western and northern portions of the CWA. Overnight
lows range in the upper 50s over our eastern counties and upper
60s over our western counties.

A warm front develops west of our region by Saturday morning and
progresses east along side a low pressure system located in Canada.
This could bring some initial spotty showers in the morning but the
main round of showers will move through in the afternoon as the cold
front follows. There is potential for severe weather and flash
flooding as parameters are looking somewhat favorable. PWAT values
range up to 1.7 in, with a warm cloud layer depth ranging 11,000 to
13,000 feet. Any convective storms that train or bring multiple
rounds of showers over the same locations has the potential to
produce flash flooding. WPC has placed our region in a marginal risk
for the excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s which will help
support instability. There is also some potential for clearing to
occur late morning into early afternoon, which could help set the
stage for how storms develop. As of now model guidance has CAPE
values up to 1,500 J/Kg with approximately 30 knots of shear.
Soundings also support stronger winds mixing down to the surface,
therefore damaging winds may be possible with any strong to severe
storm that develops. Instability will be focused mainly east of I-
81. SPC has our region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
with wind being our main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be in place across the region Sunday. This
should result in a rare sunny portion of the weekend for the
region. Temperatures will rise fairly quickly given the sunshine
with most locations getting to around 80. With light winds and
slightly increased humidity Sunday night some patchy fog can not
be ruled out. Our main highlight still looks to be Monday as
modeled 925mb temperatures rise to around 25C in the afternoon
yielding highs near 90 for most of the region. Humidity will be
on the rise as well. However, inverted V soundings may allow
for some slight mixing at peak heating lowering dewpoints
slightly. Portions of central New York look to get close to a 95
degree heat index. Overall, looks like another hot day but not
as extreme as last week. While moisture and instability look
sufficient Monday afternoon a lack of lift is present keeping
any thunderstorm coverage to isolated at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold frontal boundary looks to move through the area Tuesday.
It will be interesting to see if the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday will focus
along the front or the trough axis in advance. Either way the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase. PW
values are still modeled around 1.5 inches with tall skinny CAPE
profiles which indicate heavy downpours will be possible. A few
occurrences of urban or flash flooding can not ruled out.
Overall, a questionable setup for any strong to severe
thunderstorms based on timing. Also, lapse rates look to be
fairly poor with marginal CAPE and 0-6km bulk shear. Tuesday
looks to start of muggy near 70 with highs still in the 80`s.

High pressure looks to nose in for the middle of the week into
the 4th of July. Right now we look to be mainly dry with only a
few ensemble members showing rain chances at this time. A slight
cooling trend in temperatures should occur but still 60`s for
lows and highs just getting over 80 for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stubborn marine layer remains in place this evening and there
does not look to be any fronts to mix out the low cigs through
at least 12Z tomorrow, MVFR and some IFR cigs were kept. AVP
with the S winds in the low elevations were kept at MVFR though
soundings show better saturation at low levels so IFR is
possible later tonight but confidence is low at that happening.
BGM being at higher elevation will see IFR or near IFR cigs all
night long.

Tomorrow, cigs try and scatter out ahead of an approaching cold
front. This cold front will likely bring a line of showers and
thunderstorms. SYR and RME were kept as showers in the prob30
group given the low cigs may keep instability from developing
while all other terminals have a good chance at seeing
thunderstorms pass through or pass close by with the front
tomorrow afternoon. Behind the front, dry air moves in with cigs
scattering out towards 0Z tomorrow for terminals that have
already seen the frontal passage.

Outlook...

Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesdsay...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along
with associated restrictions.

Wednesday...VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/JAB
NEAR TERM...DK/ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG