351
FXUS61 KBGM 011055
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will diminish today, but a cool northwest flow pattern
will result in scattered lake effect rain showers across Central
New York. High pressure then builds into the region on Sunday.
This will be followed by a weak low pressure system moving
through the area Monday afternoon through Monday night with
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The tight pressure gradient that was in place yesterday
continues to gradually ease, resulting in winds gradually
diminishing across the area. For most of the area, today will be
dry with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. However, with a
west-northwest flow and 850mb temperatures around -4C, scattered
lake effect rain showers will also be present across parts of
Central NY, especially in the vicinity of the NY Thruway
corridor/downwind of Lake Ontario. Temperatures early this
morning will be cold enough for some wet snowflakes to also mix
in for some of the higher elevations in that area. There may
even be a few light showers across western Steuben County
downwind of Lake Erie. Highs today will be in the lower 40s to
lower 50s, which is several degrees below normal for this time
of the year.

High pressure will start building in tonight, which will mostly
cut-off the lake effect showers, but a few isolated showers may
persist into Sunday morning. Otherwise, tonight will be partly
cloudy (mostly cloudy downwind of Lake Ontario) with lows in the
mid 20s to mid 30s.

High pressure will result in dry conditions on Sunday. Aside
from some morning lingering lake effect clouds across the NY
Thruway corridor, Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies. Highs
are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s; closer to
normal for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move off to the east Sunday night, which will
result in a southerly return flow heading into Monday. As a
result, Monday`s temperatures will be warmer with highs in the
mid 50s to near 60 degrees. Skies will start off mostly sunny in
the morning, but clouds will increase from west to east during
the afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave and associated
cold front. This system will bring showers into the area by
Monday afternoon and persist through at least Monday night.

Showers associated with the passing shortwave should gradually
diminish as Tuesday progresses as high pressure moves back in.
The exception may end up being across the NY Thruway corridor
once again with some scattered lake effect rain showers Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather likely persists through most of Wednesday, but there
is a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing of the next
shortwave. It is possible this shortwave may enter the area by
Wednesday afternoon, bringing the next chance for showers. The
more likely solution is that this holds off until Wednesday
night into Thursday. Then another brief dry period is expected
for the end of the week, before the next system approaches by
early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect clouds continue to create MVFR cigs at times mainly
at the higher elevated airports of ITH and BGM, as well as SYR.
This will continue for a few more hours before cigs rise to VFR
by late morning. VFR conditions are expected 18Z onwards at all
other terminals. Some mid level clouds move in overnight so ELM
is not expected to fog at this time.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.

Monday Through Wednesday..Chance for periods of rain showers
and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG