909
FXUS61 KBGM 082247
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A much cooler and drier airmass has moved into the region. Frost
and some sub-freezing temperatures are expected tonight into
Thursday morning, and especially Thursday night into Friday
morning. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to persist at least
through the first half of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A weak trough or mesolow like feature continues to drop
southward into central NY early this evening. This feature is
resulting in locally enhanced clouds and a few showers as it
dives from near Syracuse into portions of the western Catskills.
The loss of any instability should result in any showers and
clouds dissipating by midnight.


150 PM Update:

Following the passage of a cold front, much cooler and drier
air has filtered into the region. This will result in clear
skies tonight. Somewhat decent radiational cooling conditions
will be present combined with the cool airmass in place, which
will result in low temperatures dropping to the 30s for most of
the area, and upper 20s for northern Oneida County. The
potential remains for areas of frost late tonight/early Thursday
morning, but this is not a slam dunk due to winds remaining a
bit gusty just above the surface. Even at the surface, winds
will likely not be completely calm.

All frost/freeze headlines for tonight remain unchanged; Frost
Advisories remain in effect for most of the area besides the
Finger Lakes, Wyoming Valley, and most of the Poconos. A Freeze
Warning remains in effect for northern Oneida County. There was
some consideration to possibly expand the Freeze Warning to
include parts of the Catskills and some of the higher elevation
counties of Central NY, but confidence in having more than half
of each of those counties reach the freezing mark remains on the
lower side.

Thursday will feature abundant sunshine as high pressure remains
in control. However, despite the sunshine, the cool airmass in
place will result in high temperatures only getting up to the
50s for most of the area. Some of the higher elevations of
Central NY may not even make it out of the upper 40s for highs
on Thursday.

The setup for a widespread freeze (or at least frost) remains
nearly perfect for Thursday night with ideal radiational cooling
conditions present. Lows are expected to be in the mid 20s to
lower 30s for most of the area. Freeze Watches remain in effect
for most of the area besides Yates, Seneca, and southern Cayuga
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
150 PM Update:

High pressure will move to the east on Friday, which will result
in a southerly return flow and warmer temperatures (closer to
normal for this time of the year). Highs are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s under sunny skies once again. The
moderating trend in temperatures will continue on Saturday with
highs in the 60s for the large majority of the area. Mostly
sunny skies are again expected, but higher clouds may move into
the region from the south ahead of a potential coastal storm
system and an upper level low dropping southward into the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM Update:

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
aforementioned potential coastal low pressure system. Certain
model guidance such as the GFS brings rain right into our region
along the western side of this low as it interacts with the
upper level low simultaneously dropping southward. Meanwhile
other model guidance keeps a stronger high pressure system in
place, and therefore shunting most of the rain to the south and
east. Model trends over the last 24 hours have been further
north and west with this rain, so this will continue to be
monitored over the coming days.

Drier weather then looks to move back into the region for next
week. If the above mentioned storm system misses our region,
fire weather may be a concern next week, especially since many
trees are quickly losing their leaves now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR ceilings should lift by mid evening for KSYR and KRME.
Potential does exist for some patchy fog around sunrise for
KELM. Although with a push of drier air the fog potential is
somewhat questionable still. For now, included a VFR SCT
restriction to account for this. Winds decrease this evening as
well for all TAF sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR; areas of morning
low clouds/valley fog.

Monday...Watching a coastal low with showers possible and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ009.
     Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     NYZ009-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK/MWG