328
FXUS61 KBGM 030603
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
103 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry start to the day today, rain showers will move into
the area this afternoon and evening, especially across Central
New York. Aside from some lingering lake effect rain showers,
Tuesday will bring a brief return to dry weather. Another system
will bring rain to the area Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night, before drier and cooler weather returns on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today will start off mostly sunny, but clouds will quickly
increase from west to east as a quick-moving shortwave and
associated weak cold front approaches the area. This will bring
an increasing chance for showers this afternoon, especially
across Central NY (mainly concentrated along and north of the NY
Thruway corridor). There will also be a small chance for a
rumble of thunder embedded within these showers with steep lapse
rates and a little bit of instability present. In addition to
the incoming showers, it will become increasingly breezy
beginning this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens
between the departing high pressure system and incoming
shortwave. By this afternoon, winds will occasionally gust up to
20-30 mph. Otherwise, today will be warmer with highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

The flow will shift to northwesterly and 850mb temperatures will
fall to around -3C tonight behind the cold front. This will
result in some additional lake enhanced rain showers across
parts of Central NY, perhaps mixing with some snow at the higher
elevations or northern Oneida County. It will remain breezy
tonight with occasional gusts of 25-35 mph. Lows are expected to
be in the lower 30s to near 40.

The northwest flow regime will continue on Tuesday, which will
result in some lingering lake effect rain showers, especially
along the NY Thruway corridor. Otherwise, the rest of the area
is expected to be dry under partly to mostly sunny skies. With
the tight pressure gradient continuing, it will remain breezy
with occasional gusts of 25-35 mph possible at times. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control Tuesday night, which will
result in dry conditions and lighter winds. Lows are expected to
be in the upper 20s to lower 40s.

A very similar system to today will move through the area on
Wednesday, including similar timing. After a dry start to the
day, the chance for showers will increase during the afternoon,
especially across Central NY. Then the alternating wet/dry
day pattern will continue, with high pressure bringing a return
to dry weather on Thursday, except for perhaps a few lingering
lake effect showers. After highs in the lower 50s to near 60 on
Wednesday, cooler temperatures will arrive on Thursday with
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term pattern continues to look rather active with a
parade of systems moving through embedded with a deep longwave
trough. At this time, it appears one system will move through on
Friday, a brief break Saturday (aside from some lingering lake
effect showers), then an even stronger system moves through
Sunday into the beginning of next week. This is all highly
subject to change as the upper level pattern will be very
chaotic during this time.

This pattern will also usher in a much colder airmass by the
beginning of next week, which means that it isn`t entirely out
of the realm of possibilities to see some snow, at least during
the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With a strengthening low level jet tonight ahead of a low
pressure system moving in, LLWS was added to terminals that have
seen their winds go calm or get near calm early this morning.
Given the calm winds at ELM, some IFR vis was added in as a
tempo to encompass the timing if the best chance at some fog
forming.

Today will be mostly VFR after 12Z though as a front moves
through this afternoon, winds will increase and rain showers
move through. SYR a,d RME may see some MVFR cigs and vis at
times as the strongest rain showers will be near the Great
Lakes. All other NY terminals may see very brief MVFR cigs or
vis, with confidence low enough only prob 30s were put in. AVP
should stay VFR.

Outlook...

Monday night... Scattered showers and associated restrictions,
mainly at SYR and RME.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night...Rain showers becoming likely and associated
restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Thursday...Some lingering restrictions possible at the Central
NY terminals; otherwise becoming mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Some rain showers and associated
restrictions are possible late in the day and at night.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG