295
FXUS61 KBGM 211136
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts will keep conditions mostly
cloudy and cool with a few showers around today into tonight.
Abundant cloud cover remains in place through much of the day on
Saturday, but it should be dry with seasonable temperatures. Another
weak front and clipper system passes by just to the north on Sunday,
with a chance for a few rain or snow showers in Central NY. High
pressure returns on Monday, bringing mainly sunny skies and mild
temperatures across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Plenty of cloud cover looks to generally remain in place over the
forecast area through the day today. A few weak fronts and
disturbances will approach from the NW this morning; bringing some
light showers, sprinkles or drizzle at times to north-central NY.
Can`t rule out an isolated pocket of briefing very light freezing
rain or drizzle in northern Oneida county early this morning; but
chances for this to occur remain low. Otherwise, most of the area
and time will be dry today, with highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s.


The latest trend in the model guidance for tonight is to bring the
weak wave of low pressure a little further north than earlier runs.
This will bring a chance for rain showers to much of NE PA; and
borderline likely PoPs to the Wyoming Valley after midnight into
early Saturday morning. Much of the precip is expected to be in the
form of a cold rain...however a few wet snow flakes could mix in
over the higher elevations...especially toward daybreak as colder
air aloft filters in from the NW behind the cold front.

Saturday will feature a colder NW flow pattern, with 850mb temps
around -5C or -6C by afternoon. This may try to develop a weak lake
effect response...but the NBM guidance was not really picking up on
this yet, which did not instill confidence in some of the higher
resolution model guidance. In any event, it would be a few snow
flurries or light sprinkles coming off the Finger Lakes if it does
develop. Otherwise, skies look to remain overcast to mostly cloudy
through much of the day....with some partial clearing possible late
in the afternoon or evening. After lows in the 30s Friday night it
will only rise into the low to mid-40s for highs Saturday afternoon.
These seasonably cool temperatures will combine with breezy NW winds
of 8-15 mph (gusts to 20 mph) to make it feel quite chilly in
many locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very brief high pressure builds in Saturday evening, before a fast
moving warm front approaches late overnight and through the day on
Sunday. The weak clipper system passes by just to the north Sunday
evening into Sunday night. This system will keep more clouds around
north of the Twin Tiers on Sunday, with a few rain or wet snow
showers further north in Central NY. NE PA remains dry and partly to
mostly sunny on Sunday. Seasonable temperatures continue. A large
high pressure system then settles into the Mid-Atantic and Northeast
US for Monday. This will mean dry, sunny and seasonably mild weather.
Clouds will be on the increase for Monday night, out ahead of the
next frontal system. Current model guidance timing keeps it dry
overnight though with lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast moving, rather weak frontal system looks to move through the
area Tuesday, Tuesday night and even into  Wednesday. This will keep
our weather unsettled with periods of rain showers and plenty of
clouds expected. Temperatures remain on the mild side Tuesday and
Wednesday though, getting up well into the 50s on Wednesday.

A fairly strong cold front then looks to move through the area
sometime around Thanksgiving (Thursday). The exact timing and
magnitude of the cold air mass remains uncertain at this time.
However, temperatures will fall, bringing below average readings by
the end of the work week. Precipitation type also starts to favor
snow (showers) heading into the end of the work week. After
seasonable temperatures on Thursday, it looks to fall into the
mid/upper 20s Thursday night...then daytime highs are likely to
remain in the 30s by next Friday, along with chances for lake
effect snow showers for portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mix of restrictions across the area this morning as a weak
disturbance passes to our north. IFR conditions currently at AVP
will continue into midday, lifting to Fuel Alt then VFR by the
late afternoon. Rain showers are expected to move into the area
during the overnight hours, bringing a return of MVFR/Fuel Alt
conditions. IFR will be possible but confidence is not high
enough to include them in the TAFs at this time as guidance is
not hitting it hard and model runs over the past several hours
have not shown a strong trend.

All terminals in NY will see MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings into the
late afternoon, lifting to VFR through the evening hours. MVFR
ceilings should return during the overnight hours for
BGM/ELM/ITH.


Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...High pressure builds back into the
region with mostly VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC