429
FXUS61 KBGM 141747
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
147 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few days of dry weather, showers return for the weekend.
There will likely be a brief dry period to start next week, but
the pattern will become more active again, with shower chances
increasing through the week. Temperatures will be cooler this
weekend, but then trend warmer early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 AM Update:

Increased sky cover since cloudy skies are present for the large
majority of the area. Also removed any mention of thunder today
due to the stable environment with extensive cloud cover and
cool temperatures. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

230 AM Update...

Showers continue this morning as a stationary front remains
draped over Central PA. This front will continue to slowly drift
south today and conditions will dry out from north to south
during the afternoon and evening hours. Although a wetting rain
is likely for most of the region this morning, areas north of
the NYS Thruway corridor will see little to no rain today.
Mostly cloudy conditions will keep high temperatures cool over
most of the region with highs across the Southern Tier and
NEPA in the mid to upper 60s. However, the northern half of the
CWA should see temperatures climb into the low 70s with some
breaks of sun possible in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers are once again possible overnight, with another
shortwave situated over the Midwest pushes eastward into the
Ohio Valley, but shower activity will be dependent on where the
stationary front ends up today.

Sunday will be dependent again on where the stationary front
ends up. There is a chance the area could stay mostly dry on
Sunday, with the greatest potential for rain expected to be in
NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update:

East-southeast winds will keep clouds and possibly some light
rain and drizzle across NE PA and into the Southern Catskills Sunday
night.

Much of the same is expected on Monday with slightly warmer
conditions as there may be occasional breaks of sun. An isolated
shower will still be possible on Monday as a weak short wave
pushes in from the west. Southwesterly flow will at least
increase temperatures back into the 70s for most of the region.
Cloudy conditions will remain overnight Monday and overnight
lows will only dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM Update:

The weather pattern becomes more summer-like Tuesday through
Thursday with deep southwesterly flow pumping in warm and humid
air. This will allow temperatures to warm- up each day with
widespread 80s for highs expected by Wednesday and Thursday.
Subtle shortwaves combined with diurnal heating will bring a
chance of showers and some thunderstorms each day, which could
impact high temperatures if they become widespread enough.

By late Thursday or Thursday night, a cold front will move
through the region, which will bring more widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. This will also bring somewhat cooler
conditions by Friday (highs in the mid 70s to near 80), along
with an additional chance for some showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low clouds will continue to bring at least MVFR to Fuel
Alternate ceiling restrictions to most terminals this afternoon
and evening with IFR restrictions likely at KBGM. While model
guidance also hints at IFR ceilings at KAVP, the predominant
wind direction is east/southeasterly, which is a downsloping
flow and therefore IFR restrictions there are much less likely.
Clouds are beginning to thin out a bit at KSYR and KRME, which
will likely result of a window of VFR conditions by later this
afternoon.

By late tonight/early Sunday morning, fog and low stratus will
result in widespread IFR-or-worse restrictions, with the
exceptions likely being at KAVP and KSYR. VLIFR restrictions
will be possible at KELM and KBGM, with higher confidence at
KELM. Gradual improvement is then expected by late Sunday
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions
possible in isolated to scattered showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional
restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...BJG