559
FXUS61 KBGM 241131
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
631 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds linger this morning, breaking for more sunshine and seasonable
temperatures this afternoon under high pressure. The next frontal
system brings periods of rain and mild temperatures Tuesday into
Wednesday. A cold front then moves through the area Wednesday night,
bringing colder temperatures along with lake effect snow and windy
conditions for Thanksgiving through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cool NW flow with lake effect clouds will linger across most of the
forecast area this morning. The clouds are expected to scatter and
lift northeast by mid to late morning, with partly to mostly sunny
skies by afternoon. High pressure slides south, across the Mid-
Atlantic states later today into this evening. Seasonable
temperatures expected, with highs in the 40s today. Clouds begin to
increase overnight out ahead of the next low pressure system. It
will stay dry tonight, with south winds up to 10 mph and seasonable
lows in the upper 20s (east) to upper 30s (west).

A low pressure system tracks into the Ohio valley on Tuesday,
bringing rain to the area by afternoon. The rain looks to quickly
overspread the area, however the exact hourly timing remains
uncertain. Current best estimates are that the rain reaches
Elmira/Watkins Glen and Geneva by late morning, I-81 corridor by
midday or early afternoon and eastern areas by 2-3 PM...again some
adjustments to this timing are still possible. Rainfall amounts will
be up to a quarter inch with this system by evening. Despite the
rain and clouds Tuesday will be mild with highs in mid-40s to lower
50s expected under a steady south wind around 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
This periods starts off mild with additional periods of rain showers
Tuesday night and right into Wednesday. These showers are associated
with a large and strong frontal system which approaches from the
Central Great Lakes region. The main low tracks into the UP of
Michigan by Wednesday afternoon, putting our forecast area squarely
in the warm sector, with an increasingly mild southwest flow.
Temperatures will be well above average, with lows only in the 40s
Tuesday night and highs surging into the upper 50s or low 60s by
Wednesday. It appears a dry slot moves into the area Wednesday
morning, with perhaps a few breaks in the clouds and just isolated
to scattered showers around. By afternoon PoPs increase yet again
into the high chance range for the Wyoming Valley, with likely to
categorical PoPs expected further north across Central NY. Rainfall
amounts are just a few hundreths or less in the morning, with around
a tenth of an inch in the afternoon in CNY; fading to a few
hundreths in NE PA. Southwest winds increase between 10-20 mph out
ahead of the incoming cold front.

The strong cold front then moves through the area Wednesday evening
into Wednesday night as 850mb temperatures fall to around -9C before
daybreak Thursday. At the surface, temperatures gradually fall below
freezing, first over the higher elevations after midnight and into
the valleys by 4-7 AM...if current timing holds. Some rain showers
are expected to linger Wednesday night, before gradually mixing over
and changing to snow showers later at night. The flow will initially
be southwesterly over the area, so any snow showers should be coming
off of Lake Erie, clipping western and northern portions of the
forecast area. At this time, any snow accumulations are expected to
minor (less than half an inch) Wednesday night, with most of the
area seeing none.

Thanksgiving Day into Thursday Night:

***Increasing potential for lake effect snow showers for this
 period, especially Thursday Night***

The 500 and 700mb trough swings into the area on Thursday, with
increasing coverage of snow showers under deeper mid level
moisture. It remains cold at 850mb, around -8C and with lake
temperatures around +10C, that gives an 18 degree delta T, which
will be enough to produce lake induce instability and lake
effect snow showers. The exact flow on Thursday still remains
uncertain, but latest guidance seems to be honing in on
approximately 230-240 degree SW flow still, gradually veering
more westerly late in the day. This should again keep the more
focused lake effect snow bands just north and west of our
forecast area...but some showers are likely to spray off of Lake
Erie into the upslope locations and higher elevations locations
south of Syracuse into Oneida county. Temperatures are colder,
with highs in the 30s and west winds increasing between 15-25
mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible. By Thursday night, the
trough axis is forecast to push through. This should act to
shift the boundary layer flow around to west-northwest. Ample,
deep moisture remains locked in over the region as well; with
00z GFS profiles showing saturation up to 500mb. The snow growth
layer is generally centered between 5-9k ft AGL through the
event, with the strongest lift expected to be just under the
main DGZ by daybreak Friday morning. The potential is increasing
for accumulating lake effect snow Thursday night over portions
of Central NY. This combined with lows dropping into the 20s and
gusty west-northwest winds could make an impact on travel, with
snow covered and slick roads possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The lake effect continues all day Friday and into Friday night, with
the west-northwest flow persisting and deeper moisture remaining in
place through at least sunset. 850mb temperatures bottom out around-
11 or -12C Friday night into early Saturday. The forecast maintain
likely to even categorical PoPs for lake effect snow showers across
a large portions of Central NY through the day Friday, before starting
to decrease slightly Friday night as the deeper moisture exits and
the inversion likely lowers some. Friday will be the coldest
day of the work week, with highs only in the low to mid-30s for
most locations...except upper 30s in the Wyoming Valley. West-
northwest winds remain strong and gusty on Friday, slowly
diminishing Friday night.

By the time the lake effect starts to wind down Saturday
morning, several inches or more of accumulation are certainly
possible across the northern Susquehanna region, Syracuse metro
and Oneida County regions. These zones all have 25-50% +
probabilities to see 4 inches or more of snow Thursday night
through Friday night...with 60-80 percent probabilities along
and north of I-90 from the current 01z NBM ensemble forecast
suite. When looking at 7"+ probabilities the highest chances are
in two corridors, one north of I-90 in far northern Onondaga
and north-central Oneida counties (30-60%) and the other being a
secondary corridor near Cazenovia and Hamilton with 30-35%
chance. Overall, chances are increasing for a potential
impactful winter weather/lake effect event...however the exact
details such as band locations, timing and snowfalls are still
uncertain. Given the uncertainty no winter weather headlines
will be issued for our CWA at this time; but we will continue to
very closely monitor trends in the latest incoming data.

Some lingering light lake effect snow showers or flurries could
persist into Saturday, but weak high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
and eventual warm air advection should begin to diminish the lake
effect activity. It remains cold on Saturday and Saturday night with
slightly below average readings expected. Greater uncertainty enters
the forecast for Sunday into next Monday, as some warm air advection
showers are possible out ahead of a large weather system that slides
east across the southern US. These showers could be in the form or
snow or rain, but at gradual warming trend is expected based on
current NBM data.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NW flow off Lake Ontario and associated lake effect clouds will
continue through the morning hours. MVFR ceilings will continue
at BGM/ITH/SYR into the late morning/early afternoon. High
pressure building in from the west will cut off the lake flow
and thus the lower clouds. High clouds will continue through the
TAF period with VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday into Wednesday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

Thursday into Friday...Cold front brings Lake Effect snow
showers and associated restrictions. Best chance for IFR is
currently at ITH/SYR/RME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC