257
FXUS61 KBGM 251852
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain continues to to move in from the southwest, with amounts of
a quarter to half inch expected through overnight tonight. Well
above average temperatures expected for Wednesday, then a cold
front Wednesday night brings colder air, areas of heavy lake
effect snow, and increasing winds into the Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A system is currently bringing rain showers into the region
ahead of a warm front from the southwest. Warm air advection
will keep temperatures mild for late November with highs
climbing into the upper 40s to low 50s. Rainfall amounts will be
around a quarter to a half inch from now through overnight
tonight. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows
only in the upper 30s to low 40s.

A trough builds over the Great Lakes heading into Wednesday,
with Central NY and NE PA right in the middle of the warm
sector. Temperatures will be well above average with highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Rain chances ramp up from west to east
by the afternoon, along with increasing winds, as the trough
deepens and the associated surface low gets stronger. A cold
front pushes through the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night with strong cold air advection behind it. Temperatures
overnight will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, with any
lingering showers may transition to snow especially over higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A non diurnal trend is expected on Thursday as colder air continues
to filter in. By early Thursday morning, 850 mb temperatures
fall to -9C as upper level trough swings into the region, and
with Lake Ontario`s temperatures are around +10C, this will
result in a very favorable set up for lake effect snow showers
with plenty of instability. This set up is expected to be a long
duration event lasting into Friday night with fluctuations in
wind direction off of the lakes. Initially southwesterly flow
will keep most showers north and west of our area on Thursday.
Under southwesterly flow, there will likely be some lake effect
snow showers coming off of Lake Erie may clip western and
northern portions of our forecast area from Steuben County north
and east into portions of the Finger Lakes. At this time, any
snow accumulations on Thursday are expected to be minor, less
than half an inch. Temperatures on Thursday are colder, with
highs in the 30s and west winds increasing between 15-25 mph
with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible with the pressure gradient
pinch.

It isn`t until the trough axis moves through Thursday night
into Friday that winds shift west-northwest. Lake effect bands
are more likely to become organized over the northern portion of
Central NY during this time period. The period of interest has
shifted to early Friday morning, where model guidance is
becoming increasingly consistent with strong band organization
over the I-90 corridor in Onondaga and Madison counties. Taking
a look at model guidance through the atmosphere for early Friday
morning, a few difference models have a bullseye of stronger
upward vertical velocity correlates with the DGZ, which would
produce more intense snowfall. Additionally, temperatures are
quite warm still near the surface, hovering around 32 for lake
effect areas, which will likely lead to most of the snow
production as wetter, more dense snow. With persistent west-
northwest flow and deep moisture in place, lake effect snow
continues all day Friday and likely through Friday night. Watch
remains in effect with no upgrades at this time as there is
uncertainty in where exactly bands will set up. Snowfall amounts
will be highly dependent on where the bands set up and for how
long. Regardless, several inches of snow accumulation may be
possible over our very northern counties. Another hazard to note
with this event are the strong winds expected. Gusts as high as
40 mph will be possible and this will cause drifting of snow
and possibly whiteout conditions in exposed open areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers may linger into Saturday before weak
high pressure builds south of the region. Flow shifts back to
the southwest cutting off any lingering showers. Greater
uncertainty enters the forecast for Sunday into next Monday, as
some warm air advection showers are possible out ahead of a
large weather system that slides east across the southern US.
For now, will stick with NBM PoPs for that period due to the
great uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue early this afternoon,
but MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions are expected to quickly
fill in by the late afternoon/early evening along with some rain
showers. IFR ceilings are expected impact KBGM, KELM, KITH and
KRME tonight, with less confidence in this occurring at KAVP and
KSYR. For KAVP, while guidance hints at IFR ceilings, a
downsloping southeast flow should keep ceilings from falling
below Fuel Alternate until winds shift to a more southwesterly
direction by the mid-morning Wednesday. Any of the terminals
may see brief IFR visbys as well from the rain showers, but
visbys should remain primarily MVFR. Gradual improvement in
conditions is anticipated by late Wednesday morning/early
Wednesday afternoon.

There will also be a brief window for weak LLWS this evening at
KAVP and KRME before this dissipates by 04Z/05Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Additional restrictions possible in
scattered rain showers, especially at KSYR, KRME, KITH, and
KBGM.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered lake
effect snow showers, especially at KRME.

Thursday night through Friday night...Lake effect snow and
associated restrictions likely, especially at KSYR, KRME, and
KITH.

Saturday...Some lingering restrictions possible in lake effect
clouds and flurries, otherwise gradual improvement.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and
snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJG