953
FXUS63 KBIS 031456
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
856 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold this morning through tonight, with early morning and
  overnight wind chills as low as 25 below zero.

- An active weather pattern is forecast to continue through the
  weekend, with periodic low to medium chances for snow and
  breezy conditions.

- Temperatures moderate for Thursday and Friday, before cooling
  down for the weekend. Another warmup is forecast for the
  start of next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Still getting some reports of light snow over portions of
western and south central ND. Although no impacts are
anticipated, we did add a mention of flurries where we don`t
already have slight chance pops. Otherwise no updates needed.


UPDATE
Issued at 609 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Widespread low stratus covers the majority of the forecast area
this morning, although nighttime satellite imagery shows some
diminishment on the northern and eastern edges. However,
satellite also shows a bit more extensive cloud cover upstream
of western North Dakota, so would guess stratus will persist
more through the day than previously thought. We`re starting to
see a few more automated sites reporting light snow underneath
the stratus deck, so did add in some low POPs over the next few
hours to account for this. We would expect this activity to wane
through the morning as clouds move out, and no accumulation is
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Early this morning, a surface high pressure was analyzed in
north central Saskatchewan, underneath broad cyclonic flow
aloft due to a persistent Hudson Bay low. A cold front moved
through the forecast earlier today, and the Arctic high building
in is helping much colder air filter in behind the front.
Widespread low cloud cover has been ongoing through the night,
but we are starting to see some diminishment of stratus upstream
via nighttime satellite imagery. These clouds have kept
temperatures from bottoming out too much yet, with 2 AM
temperatures generally from 5 to 15 degrees above zero. We also
have mention of patchy fog in southwest North Dakota through
mid-morning, with Hettinger reporting significantly reduced
visibility.

Today will be cold, with forecast highs in the single digits
north and central, and in the lower to mid teens southwest.
Cloud cover will not fully clear out but we should at least see
a little sunshine throughout the day. Guidance favors the
surface high progressing southeast through the day, ending up in
eastern South Dakota by this evening. The cold air mass will
drop low temperatures tonight into the 5 to 15 degrees below
zero range across the north and central, while lows in the
southwest (farther away from the surface high) will moderate
around zero as a warm front approaches the area. Would not be
surprised if we manage to squeeze some isolated flurries out of
some of the remaining clouds this afternoon and tonight, but for
now carrying a dry forecast.

A modest push of warm air advection associated with the frontal
boundary will boost temperatures back into the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday, although a westerly breeze will accompany
the milder conditions. As a surface low tracks north of the
International Border, a weak trailing cold front will move
through later in the day Thursday, with blended guidance
producing a broad 20 to 30 POP Thursday evening and overnight.
The probability of exceeding an inch of snow at any one location
from this wave is low.

Rinse and repeat for Friday, with very similar forecast highs
compared to Thursday and another weak wave moving through that
could produce light snow during the day, although POPs are
slightly lower. Focus then turns to a more robust wave progged
to move through Friday night through Saturday, although recent
deterministic and ensemble guidance has both trended down the
strength and also shifted the track slightly to the southwest.
An upper shortwave looks to slide northwest-southeast overtop a
surface boundary, with chances for snow generally 30 to 50
percent across the majority of western and central North Dakota.
There are still hints of banding potential, with a band of mid-
level frontogenesis, steep lapse rates, and Q vector convergence
that would all point to potential for higher snowfall amounts.
The latest NBM 5.0 probabilities only produce a low (30 percent)
chance of exceeding 2 inches of snow from this system, with the
likelihood of at least 6 inches of snow extremely low, which is
a modest decrease from this time yesterday. There will be a
wide range of temperatures across the area on Saturday, with
forecast highs from the single digits north to the lower 20s
southwest.

Low, on and off precipitation chances persist Sunday and
through the start of next work week, with ensemble guidance
strongly agreeing on a broad northwest flow synoptic pattern for
this period. Embedded shortwaves moving through the mean flow
are producing the precipitation chances, although this is
generally a lower predictability pattern. NBM temperature
percentiles favor a warmup for the start of the work week, with
spread increasing later in the week, signaling a wide range of
solutions amongst the ensemble members regarding temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings continue this morning, although
starting to see the edge of the cloud deck around KJMS and KMOT.
Did include PROB30 group for light snow at KMOT and KBIS through
mid-morning, but not expecting much drop in visibility. Clouds
will be slow to clear and could potentially linger more than
forecast, but expect gradual improvement from north to south
through the afternoon. Gusty northerly winds will subside and
turn to the northwest later this morning through the day, before
becoming more southerly tonight. There are some indications of
lower ceilings returning late in the TAF period so included some
FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings for this potential.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones