433
FXUS63 KBIS 162113
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
413 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small potential for strong to possibly severe storms in the
  southwest this evening.

- Active pattern with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
  during the workweek into the weekend. A few severe storms are
  possible, more notably later in the week.

- Overall temperatures remain around average for this time of
  year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Currently, the remnants of the MCV are pushing from eastern
North Dakota into Minnesota. Surface pressure rises behind the
MCV are situated over southwest into south central ND with
meager pressure falls starting to develop from north central
into west central ND. Latest WV loop shows quite a bit of drier
air in the lower atmosphere pushing in behind the MCV but we
remain modestly unstable with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG
across the forecast area. There is a shortwave noted over
southern Saskatchewan with showers and thunderstorms increasing
over the southern Prairie Provinces, and even a couple cells
developing over northern North Dakota. Most of ND is within the
SPC general thunderstorm risk area. Area forecast soundings
indicate a couple hours of slight to moderate instability and
modest (north) to strong (far southwest) bulk shear. The far
southwest is the only area within the SPC marginal risk for
severe weather. Convection is beginning to fire in the higher
terrain of central Montana and northern Wyoming. The 12Z HREF
indicates the strongest path of UH tracks remaining to the south
of far southwest ND. Will have to keep an eye on this, but
right now, think the better probabilities here will stay out of
the state. In the north, and really the rest of the forecast
area, overall the severe potential looks to remain low, but a
few stronger cells can not be ruled out. Convection is expected
to taper this evening with the loss of heating.

Tuesday looks to be another day similar to today (temperature
wise) but with less instability and less bulk shear over the
area. Diurnally driven, isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will be possible, but by and large expect a mostly
dry day with little to no severe potential.

Wednesday will bring another day with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Currently SPC has a general thunderstorm risk across
the forecast area. We do see a cold front drop south into the
forecast area from Canada. Forecast soundings from central and
northern ND do show an environment with more CAPE than today and
Tuesday, but not a lot of bulk shear. Soundings also show a
inverted V signature, with some speed and directional shear.
We`ll see how things develop, but think there might be some
potential for an upgrade to a marginal severe thunderstorm risk.
Thursday may bring a mostly dry day with high pressure at the
surface and aloft behind the Canadian cold front, although an
isolated diurnally driven thunderstorm chance will likely remain
in the forecast.

Thursday night into Friday we transition into a southwest upper
flow with surface low pressure ejecting from the central and
northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. A strong eastern
Pacific upper low will also move onto the Pacific Northwest
coast and track into the Northern Rockies, keeping a chance of
thunderstorms over the Northern Plains. The CSU ML page shows a
decent signal for severe storms Friday and Saturday. As the
upper trough approaches, cooler temperatures move in for Sunday,
although thunderstorm chances will probably linger.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MVFR ceilings and some vicinity showers at KJMS to begin the
18Z TAF issuance. Also some MVFR clouds near KDIK which should
thin out shortly after TAF issuance. Otherwise VFR. Expect
mainly VFR conditions to continue through the period. Isolated
late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
possible, but coverage is too uncertain at this time to include
in any one TAF site. Patchy fog is possible again late tonight
into Tuesday but again, too much uncertainty in coverage to
include in TAFS. Generally west to north surface flow 5 to 15
mph.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH