021
FXUS64 KBMX 020034
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
734 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 730 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   Monday, but will be replaced with a warm and dry pattern by
   Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 730 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Despite the radar presentation, local and neighboring observation
sites do not show any precipitation reaching the ground. Low
levels remain quite dry. Will make some minor adjustments to temps
and POPs for the rest of tonight, but nothing major.

/61/

Previous discussion:
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Very pleasant weather is expected for the rest of the day, as clouds
will generally start to increase later this evening. Rain chances
will also increase, as the outer edges of the approaching trough
start to skirt our north zones. Unfortunately, measurable rainfall
is going to be limited to these areas, with very little rainfall
expected through Sunday evening.

The weather story for the next few days will remain the reinforcing
shot of cold air this next system will bring, as lows into Monday
will drop back down into the low-30s and 40s. Additional frost
development will be possible, but the overall scope will depend on
how quickly the clouds clear. Regardless, we will likely be
evaluating the need for an additional Frost Advisory come this time
tomorrow.

Thankfully, the upper-level pattern will quickly shift into a more
zonal pattern, with a ridge building in at the surface. This will
allow for temperatures to begin to warm as early as Tuesday, with
highs returning to a more seasonable feel. Lows will begin to
climb as well, with a gradual warm up putting them back into the
mid-40s by the middle of the week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Mid-level to high-level clouds will continue to stream into
central Alabama through the next 24 hour period. However, ceiling
heights at TAF locations are expected to stay at or above 5000
feet. Any light rain or sprinkles that are able to be squeezed out
of those clouds will not be of sufficient intensity to cause any
visibility restrictions.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As the next system works into the region, MinRH values will slightly
rebound through Monday, before dropping back into the mid 30-40%
range by Tuesday. Here is where they should mostly remain into next
weekend, as no additional rain chances are expected for most of next
week. Because of this, drought conditions are expected to continue,
potentially expanding given the lack of additional rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  59  37  65 /  10  50  20   0
Anniston    45  60  39  64 /   0  50  30   0
Birmingham  45  58  39  65 /  10  40  20   0
Tuscaloosa  44  61  37  66 /  10  20  10   0
Calera      44  63  38  66 /   0  30  20   0
Auburn      45  65  42  65 /   0  30  40  10
Montgomery  44  68  39  68 /   0  10  20   0
Troy        43  68  39  66 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/