554
FXUS64 KBMX 141127
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025

A rinse and repeat kind of forecast for the weekend. While not a
complete washout, showers and thunderstorm chances are very good
with pretty much greater than 70 percent each afternoon. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to near 90 before the rain activity
begins. Much like yesterday, a few of the storms will be strong,
and will need to monitor as the pulse through the heating of the
day. Heavy rainfall will accompany these storms so localized
flooding will be a threat. Much of the activity will dissipate by
Midnight.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Sunday night through Tuesday, high pressure will be over the
southern Florida/eastern Atlantic region, with another area of
high pressure over TX and the southwest. Weak troughing will be
present between the two high pressures, just north of the area.
Low and mid level winds will be from the southwest bringing
moisture and warm air advection to the state. There is a medium to
high chance for diurnal thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Instabilities should be anywhere between 2000 -3000
J/kg with PW values near max for this time of year. The wind
profile will be fairly weak with weak shear, so summer time,
develop-build-collapse storms will be the most popular mode of
convection these two days.

By Wednesday, the pattern shifts slightly with the trough
weakening and zonal flow prevailing to the north of the area. The
high pressure over the southwest will begin to strengthen and move
east, with the high over the Florida area maintaining influence
over the state. Low and mid level flow could shift to a more
westerly direction, with PW values decreasing from over 2 inches
to around 1.6 inches for much of the area. Models are trying to
hint at a low chance for Wednesday to be the day with the least
amount of coverage with light winds and lower instabilities, and
diurnally driven convection continuing Thursday through the
beginning of next weekend.

With southwesterly to westerly flow through the long term period
bringing moisture and warm air, heat indices will be in the upper
90s to near triple digits in many areas of the west and southwest.
Will need to keep an eye on these trends for increases in the heat
threat.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025

We have some patchy fog with MVFR/IFR ceilings in place this
morning. We should begin to lift by 14 to 16z. Showers begin
after 15z with thunderstorms after 18z north and west and 21z
south and east. Much of the activity will end by 3 to 6z. More
MVFR/IFR ceiling/fog will develop overnight.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next
several days as very moist air mass moves northward over the Deep
South. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft
winds from the south to southwest should remain less than 7 mph
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  67  87  68 /  80  60  70  30
Anniston    86  70  86  70 /  80  60  70  30
Birmingham  86  70  87  70 /  80  60  70  30
Tuscaloosa  87  71  86  71 /  80  60  70  30
Calera      85  71  86  71 /  80  60  70  30
Auburn      85  71  86  71 /  80  50  70  30
Montgomery  88  71  88  71 /  80  50  80  30
Troy        89  70  88  70 /  70  40  80  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16