773
FXUS64 KBMX 142337
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 636 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to
  reach the low to middle 90s for much of the next week, with heat
  indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take extra
  precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

Persistent upper-level ridging will remain the weather story for
this forecast, as the apex of the ridge is currently establishing
itself over Tennessee. This ridge will very quickly "switch off"
rain chances for the week, with the highest probabilities in the
afternoon not even reaching 10% through Friday. Under this high
pressure, afternoon high temperatures will quickly stabilize in
the low to upper-90s, remaining here until next weekend as well.
While afternoon temperatures will be hot, dew point values will
be lower in this drier airmass. In turn, heat index values will
mostly range between 101-103, keeping us below any type of heat
critical thresholds.

By this weekend, it appears as if the upper-level pattern begins
to shift, as a low pressure works its way around the ridge. This
low will work into the Gulf via the Atlantic, continuing to work
west over the next few days. While confidence in the exact
placement and movement of the disturbance is low, anything that
does work into the Gulf should suppress the ridge and increase
rain chances through the weekend.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026

Under the persistent upper-level ridge, VFR conditions are
generally expected for this entire TAF period. Light and variable
winds overnight and then east on Tuesday at 7 to 10 knots.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through
next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast. While
fire weather concerns remain low for now, increasing drought
conditions will push these concerns up by late next week if
significant rainfall does not fall by then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    71  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  74  96  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73 100  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      73  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      73  93  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  73  96  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        71  95  72  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...16