Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
981 FXUS64 KBMX 282309 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 609 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Rain chances will increase over the course of this short-term, as a series of weak disturbances ride along the stalled frontal boundary. The best rain chances are currently in our SW zones, as the front is currently oriented from the NW to the SE, north of these areas. However, this front will begin to ebb and flow into the weekend, allowing for the rain chances to shift. Due to the increased cloud cover and some lingering cold air advection, temperatures will continue to run below average. Highs on Friday will range in the upper-70s to low-80s, with overnight lows ranging in the low to mid-60s. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Rain chances will continue through the weekend, with the best rain chances continuing to mirror the placement of the frontal boundary. However, this boundary should become much more diffuse by the start of the new workweek, allowing for the rain chances to become less organized. Temperatures will also begin to "rebound" by next week, as the trough overhead becomes cut off, keeping to cooler air to our north. Highs should return to the mid to upper-80s by the middle of the week. While not in the forecast period yet, long-range guidance is already in decent agreement on a beast of a longwave trough working through the Midwest by next weekend. Given the upper-level support, this trough and cold front could easily push into the region around next weekend as well. If it materializes, we could be looking at some of the coldest air of the season by the time it moves through. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Showers have been spreading across our western areas through the afternoon hours. Opted to transition to TEMPO groups for the northern terminals for the next few hours to account for some heavier shower activity. AUO/MGM will likely hang onto showers through the night. After a brief lull in activity Friday morning, showers and potentially thunderstorms will redevelop during the afternoon hours. Best chances at AUO/MGM. In addition, MVFR ceilings are likely to develop during the morning hours at AUO/MGM. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will begin to increase by tomorrow, as a disturbance moves into the region. This disturbance is one of many, so rain chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Many locations will see between a half an inch, and an inch of rain. Mixing Heights will be reduced as well due to the increased cloud cover. Thankfully, do to the rain chances and limited lightning concerns, the fire weather threat remains little to none at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 59 85 63 84 / 10 20 30 30 Anniston 61 84 64 82 / 10 20 40 40 Birmingham 63 85 66 84 / 20 30 40 40 Tuscaloosa 63 83 67 85 / 30 40 50 40 Calera 63 83 65 83 / 20 40 40 50 Auburn 66 82 66 80 / 10 30 40 60 Montgomery 66 81 68 81 / 20 40 50 60 Troy 66 80 67 80 / 20 40 40 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...95/Castillo