Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
374 FXUS64 KBMX 051852 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 152 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 The radar is still clear across C AL, but that is about to change, at least a little with some shortwave activity. High pressure is centered just off of the VA coast extending WWD into E Conus with ERLY flow into AL today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at times with a tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge. 20-40% pops finally are making a return this afternoon as overall moisture begins to slowly increase. Although a few showers (can`t totally rule out a tstorm) may be noted (highest chances SRN counties), QPF amounts are not high and will not make much of a dent in the ongoing drought. High temps will be warm through the short term with no major airmass changes expected yet. Overnight lows will be mild as well with extra cloud cover and rain at times. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 No major changes were made in the extended forecast. Guidance continues to indicate a low to moderate chance of showers and tstorms as moisture gradually increases ahead of a surface front. The front is expected to move into the area on Wed and provide a little focus, but overall moisture will be limited and rainfall amounts are expected to be light. Temperatures will moderate upward for the first part of the week (thru Wed) ahead of the front with E-ESE meager onshore flow. Starting Thu, lower readings begin to sneak into the area with a welcome cool down for next weekend behind the front. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 123 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Tuesday through Wednesday, although increased cloud cover could work to hold down temps to the low 80s. A slight cool down is expected toward the end of the week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday afternoon, subject to change. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 MVFR cigs will continue for a couple more hours for many of the TAF sites. We should have VFR cigs for the latter half of the afternoon and through the evening. MVFR cigs should redevelop and work their way NWD across C AL generally after 6z and persist through the remainder of the 24 hour forecast. Tight gradients continue for much of this forecast and will allow for a few gusts at times (15-22kt). SHRA will occur at times as moisture increases. Mentions in TAFs start at 21z and spread NW/NWD into Mon. The exception will be ASN. Chances are too low to mention at this time. Note: AMD NOT SKED will be appended to the KEET TAF while comms issues persist. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A 20-40% rain chance will be in the forecast this afternoon into Monday. However, widespread wetting rains are not expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through mid week. Winds this afternoon will be generally easterly at up to 12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 82 65 86 / 20 20 10 20 Anniston 67 81 66 84 / 20 20 10 10 Birmingham 69 83 69 86 / 30 30 10 20 Tuscaloosa 70 85 70 87 / 40 40 20 20 Calera 68 85 68 88 / 30 30 10 10 Auburn 68 82 66 85 / 30 20 10 10 Montgomery 70 86 68 88 / 40 30 20 10 Troy 67 84 66 86 / 40 30 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08/12 AVIATION...08