Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
791 FXUS64 KBMX 161808 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across central Alabama today. To avoid heat-related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Hot and humid conditions will continue to be the weather story for the short-term. The existing Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 7PM tonight, before being allowed to expire. However, the need for a smaller Heat Advisory exits tomorrow in some of our NW zones, with another one going into effect Thursday AM. Much like today, that one will expire at 7PM tomorrow, with heat index values above 105 degrees. Thankfully, the disturbance in the Gulf (Invest 93L) will begin to slightly suppress the upper-level ridge into the weekend, allowing for temperatures to "fall" back into the low-90s. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should also increase tomorrow as the western bands of Invest 93L work into the region under SE flow. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Invest 93L will continue to meander west along the Gulf shoreline, before eventually working inland sometime in the next 24-48 hours. The main impact with Invest 93L is expected to be the heavy rainfall, with flooding rains expected in Louisiana. For us locally, the eastern most rain bands could work into our western zones by Friday, but no weather impacts are anticipated. As the disturbance continues to move inland, it should allow for our area to remain disturbed as well, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances likely through the weekend. It still looks like the ridge will begin to build back in by Monday, with afternoon highs rebounding to the mid-90s by Tuesday. Given the signals for the upcoming pattern, it appears as if we could be dealing with an extended period of heat headlines by Wednesday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Most terminals will remain in VFR category for the entire TAF period, sans KMGM. Here, deep tropical moisture will keep the ceilings lower, with MVFR CIGS likely past 17/10z. As for this afternoon, TSRA will be possible due to that aforementioned moisture, with a PROB30 group running all afternoon. Additions thunderstorm activity will be possible today, but confidence was not high enough to carry it at any other terminals. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will remain limited, with MinRH values continuing to climb into the weekend. Winds will also generally range under 10 MPH for most of the next week, with rain chances remaining in the forecast as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 93 72 92 / 20 30 10 50 Anniston 73 91 73 90 / 20 30 10 50 Birmingham 75 93 74 91 / 20 40 10 60 Tuscaloosa 76 92 75 91 / 20 40 10 70 Calera 75 90 74 90 / 20 40 10 70 Auburn 74 90 74 91 / 20 50 10 50 Montgomery 75 92 74 92 / 20 60 10 70 Troy 72 90 73 92 / 20 70 10 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar- Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM.../44/ LONG TERM..../44/ AVIATION.../44/