115
FXUS64 KBMX 021748
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1148 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   Monday, but will be replaced with a warm and dry pattern
   Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

At the time of this discussion, the upper-level low is somewhere
close to the AL/TN border, with it continuing to drop SE over the
course of the day. Cloud and rain chances will linger, before the
rain exits the region sometime after 6PM. The lingering clouds will
play the biggest role in the forecast, for at least the short-term,
helping to keep certain areas more insulated. Temperatures here will
be warmer, and the frost potential will be much lower. The current
Frost Advisory mirrors where I think the clouds will linger the
longest, but it`s entirely possible it`s both over done, or under
done. As the winds decouple later tonight, temperatures will quickly
begin to drop due to radiational cooling, with the aforementioned
frost quickly forming in these areas. There is also some fog
potential in our western zones tonight, with some high-res guidance
painting high probabilities given the conditions. I certainly think
some patchy fog will be possible, but I didn`t have the confidence
to introduce it into the forecast at this time.

Flow aloft will quickly shift into a more zonal pattern by Tuesday,
with high-pressure building in at the surface. This will allow
temperatures to quickly start to rebound, with a more seasonable
feel expected by Wednesday. There is also some early indication of
multiple systems moving through the region closer to next weekend,
with low-end rain chances returning to the forecast by Friday.
Temperatures may drop once again with the deeper, second system
into Saturday, but the overall scope of impacts with this system
remains to be seen.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

While VFR conditions are anticipated area-wide, river fog will be
possible again overnight. I have opted to leave KTCL with no
restrictions, but reduced VIS will certainly be possible there if
the fog develops.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will more or less settle in the mid 30-40% range
through Wednesday, before slightly increasing into the weekend with
increasing rain chances. Unfortunately, widespread rainfall chances
are still limited, with drought conditions persisting across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  36  64  36 /  40   0   0   0
Anniston    62  38  64  38 /  50  10   0   0
Birmingham  59  38  63  40 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  62  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      64  37  66  40 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      66  41  65  44 /  20  10   0   0
Montgomery  68  38  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        69  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chilton-Dallas-Etowah-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-
St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/