Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
851 FXUS64 KBMX 041131 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 631 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 - Dry conditions continue today as drought continues to worsen across Central Alabama. - A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances Sunday through early next week, but chances of rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch remain very low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 Saturday will be another dry one across Central Alabama, with highs again in the mid 80s in most places and winds gusting 15-20 mph from the east at times. Cloud cover will be more likely the further south and east you get, with lesser cloud cover over northwestern areas. By Sunday, a weak tropical disturbance over Florida will push increased moisture up into Alabama, with a 20-30% rain chance Sunday afternoon and again on Monday. These showers are expected to be spotty in nature and move predominantly northwestward. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 As mentioned in the short term discussion, increased moisture from the tropical disturbance will lead to low rain chances on Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Monday through Wednesday. A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period, with mostly broken to overcast mid-level and high cirrus clouds streaming overhead. Surface winds will remain from the east around 10 knots with a few gusts between 15 and 20 knots forecast during the day. Winds diminish under 10 knots during the overnight hours tonight. Although not included in this TAF cycle just yet, there are some indications that we could see a short period of time for some LLWS between 06z and 12z Sunday morning. Winds could top out between 35 and 40 knots around 2000 feet during this time. In addition, some lower ceilings could begin to move into southern Alabama after 12z Sunday morning, but is currently outside the current TAF forecast period. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Central Alabama will remain rain free until Sunday. A 20-30% rain chance will be in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. RH values will drop into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A moderate risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today across the area, but min RHs and winds are not forecast to meet Red Flag criteria. outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. No wetting rainfall is expected in the coming days. Any amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 63 83 65 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 82 65 80 67 / 0 0 20 20 Birmingham 83 67 83 69 / 0 0 20 20 Tuscaloosa 86 67 85 70 / 0 0 20 20 Calera 85 66 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 Auburn 82 66 80 68 / 0 10 20 20 Montgomery 85 68 83 69 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 82 66 81 68 / 0 10 30 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...56/GDG