Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
122 FXUS64 KBMX 140644 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 144 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 A deep-layer ridge axis will hold firm over the region today which should keep convection isolated this afternoon and evening. To our east, an inverted trough associated with a tropical disturbance, will move westward, bringing enhanced moisture and a focus for convection across Georgia. This activity should remain east of our forecast area today, but as the trough continues to move westward, thunderstorm activity may become quite robust on Tuesday across the eastern half of our forecast area. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 As the tropical disturbance moves westward across the northern Gulf in the Wednesday through Friday time frame, a large plume of enhanced moisture should overspread the Deep South. This should support relatively high prospects for rain, particularly across the southern half of Alabama and perhaps farther north if southerly flow becomes established. High moisture content is expected to remain across the region for the weekend, which should prolong an active pattern of diurnal convection. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 Aside from some fog potential overnight at KTCL in the wake of rainfall, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all sites. Afternoon thunderstorm activity is expected to be rather isolated and not worthy of inclusion in the TAFs at this time. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 87/Grantham && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 72 95 72 / 20 10 20 20 Anniston 92 73 94 73 / 10 10 20 20 Birmingham 93 74 95 75 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 94 74 96 76 / 20 10 20 10 Calera 92 74 95 75 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 93 75 94 74 / 10 10 30 30 Montgomery 95 75 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 Troy 94 74 96 73 / 10 10 30 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87/Grantham LONG TERM....87/Grantham AVIATION...87/Grantham