267
FXUS64 KBMX 031738
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025

 - Below average temperatures are anticipated for most of the next
   seven days.

 - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Surface ridging will hold on strong today, keeping clouds in place
through the morning under this stable airmass. However, this ridge
will begin to break down into the evening hours, as this new surface
low takes shape in the northern Gulf. Rain chances associated with
this low will begin to increase by the morning hours on Thursday,
with widespread rainfall continuing through the weekend.

The heaviest axis of this rainfall will depend on how far north
this surface low ends up tracking. Right now, it appears the
largest rainfall amounts will stay below I-20, with most locations
here seeing 1-2 inches of rain. Farther south near the I-85
corridor, 3+ inches of rain will be possible, as that is where the
stronger forcing will be along the low pressure. All this rain
will fall over a several day period, so the only impact expected
is additional relief from the ongoing drought.

By Sunday, a longwave trough will begin to drop south through the
Midwest, working into the region by Monday. This will finally push
the rest of the lingering rain to the east, with dry conditions
returning to the region. During the process, another shot of
reinforcing cold air will work in behind a cold front, with lows
Monday night dropping into the mid to upper-20s. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally remain below average for this time of
the year.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Skies will continue to clear over the next few hours, allowing for
VFR conditions through the night. However, clouds and rain chances
will increase closer to 04/12z, dropping most terminals into low-
end VFR/MVFR. However, at KTCL, the clouds should arrive closer to
04/06z, with IFR conditions possible through the morning hours.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will begin to increase by tomorrow morning, as another
system works its way in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of
rainfall are expected through Saturday, with some locations getting
north of 3 inches. These values will heavily depend on where the
heaviest rainfall banding sets up. No flooding is expected, and the
only impact across the region will be continued drought relief.
Otherwise, MinRH values will remain above 50%, and fire weather
concerns will remain limited through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  31  49  38 /   0   0  30  80
Anniston    50  33  49  40 /   0   0  40  90
Birmingham  49  35  49  40 /   0   0  50  90
Tuscaloosa  51  35  49  41 /   0  10  60  90
Calera      52  34  49  40 /   0   0  60  90
Auburn      52  36  48  42 /   0   0  60 100
Montgomery  51  36  47  43 /   0   0  80 100
Troy        52  37  48  43 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/