062
FXUS65 KBOI 240036
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
636 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening across far
  eastern Oregon and far western Idaho, with gusty winds,
  lightning, brief heavy rain, and small hail possible.

- Very hot, dry, and breezy to end the week.

- Areas of smoke will continue through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...
Issued 243 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
Convective initiation is already underway in eastern Oregon as of
writing this. Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to
continue this afternoon into the evening primarily across eastern
far eastern Oregon and western Idaho, tracking northeast after
initiation. A low off the Oregon coast is helping bring in some
monsoonal moisture kicking off these thunderstorms. The strongest
storms this afternoon will be capable of heavy rain, small hail, and
gusts to 40-60 mph. Some thunderstorms may be able to make it across
the Treasure Valley. Southwesterly flow aloft will aid in boosting
afternoon temperature today to around 100 degrees, leading to a heat
advisory this afternoon.

A warming and drying trend will set in come Friday, with
temperatures climbing over 100 degrees throughout much of the lower
Snake Plain. The heat advisory will continue through Saturday. Winds
will also begin to increase as the aforementioned low creeps closer
to shore. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will persist through
Saturday across eastern Oregon and higher terrain of southwest
Idaho, leading to critical fire weather conditions Friday and
Saturday. Most of the area will remain dry after today, aside from
the western Magic Valley where lingering moisture will allow for
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. Wildfire
smoke will linger over the area, most notable each night and morning
before mixing out during the afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued 243 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
After slight cooling Sunday and Monday as an upper trough brushes
OR and WA, the rest of the week will trend hotter again. The
main upper high, initially centered over the southern Rockies,
will shift slowly westward to the southern Great Basin by next
weekend. The high is also forecast to intensify as the northern
trough moves back off the northwest coast and the next hurricane
moves WNW away from the Mexican coast. The resulting pattern
will still allow monsoon moisture to reach south-central Idaho
for a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms through the week,
but Oregon looks very dry. With most of the wildfires currently
located in Oregon those areas will likely remain just smoky and
hot.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday through Saturday/...
Issued 620 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
Thunderstorms continuing through sunset, expected to dissipate
overnight. Outflow gusts 30-50 kt, brief heavy rain, and small
hail in strongest storms. Hazy conditions overnight continue as
smoke settles back in. High density altitude due to heat
tomorrow afternoon. Surface winds: NW/Variable 5-10 kt this
evening becoming light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: S 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Nearby storms bringing erratic outflow gusts up to
25 kt this evening. Clear overnight outside of settling smoke in
the morning. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt until
sunset, becoming SE overnight.

Weekend Outlook...Areas of wildfire smoke continuing with MVFR
visibility during late night and morning hours, improving each
afternoon. High density altitude due to heat. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms across the Magic Valley each afternoon. Mostly
clear elsewhere. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 25
kt, except 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt on Saturday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM MDT Friday for IDZ011-012-014-033.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ400-420-
     423.
     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Friday to 9 PM MDT Saturday for
     IDZ401-402-423.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ012-014-016-033.
OR...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM MDT /1 PM PDT/ Friday for
     ORZ061>064.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening for
     ORZ672>675.
     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM MDT /1 PM PDT/ Friday to 9 PM MDT
     /8 PM PDT/ Saturday for ORZ670>675.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Saturday for ORZ063-
     064.
&&

$$

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AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....LC