


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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411 FXUS65 KBOU 061132 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 532 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Front Range mountain and higher foothills snow tonight, with a few inches accumulation expected (80-90% chance). - Rain showers in the lower foothills and I-25 Corridor, areas of drizzle or light rain eastern plains. - Chilly through Monday and Monday night. - Above normal temperatures return for mid/late week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Satellite shows clouds increasing along the Front Range in the upsloping post-frontal airmass this afternoon. A few showers were developing in the higher terrain, about as scheduled. KFTG 88D Vad wind profiler now shows upslope has deepened to 10,000 ft MSL, and there should be at least a little further deepening this evening. However, speeds will remain relatively weak at 10-15 kts. While moisture is relatively limited, there is weak QG lift and continued upslope to overcome that. Thus, we do expect precipitation to become more widespread during the evening hours with these features in place. However, given the moisture limitations we think this will remain an upslope focused event favoring the Front Range north of I-70 (drier south). Finally, it should be noted the right entrance region of a passing jet max and also some weak frontogenesis could result in a couple of heavier bands, and models seem intent in focusing on this from western Boulder County into the Mummy Range - where higher elevations are expected to see several inches of snow. Snow levels will be lowering with further cool advection. The northern Front Range Foothills around Red Feather Lakes should see snow levels drop to 8,000 feet later this evening, but only to around 9,000 feet farther south toward the I-70 Corridor. Thus, most impacts will be to the higher passes including Cameron Pass and Trail Ridge Road in RMNP (the latter already pre-emptively closed). Also, couldn`t rule out some slushy roads along higher elevations of the Peak to Peak Highway. Precipitation intensity is expected to decrease overnight as the upslope component weakens, but a weak and shallow upslope environment means we`ll likely see areas of light drizzle linger into Monday morning. Low clouds and weak upslope will stick around for the day, resulting in chilly conditions with high temperatures only reaching the lower to mid 50s on the plains, and a few spots may see temps not even hitting 50F! We`ll have another chance of showers redeveloping Monday afternoon, but overall the forcing seems weaker than tonight. There is a hint of a jet streak but frontogenesis seems limited. That said, a few models were showing another banded precipitation even sneaking out of the foothills and across Denver metro for the evening hours. We have increased PoPs a bit for this. The low clouds are likely (70-80% chance) to hold in Monday night, limiting and frost or Frost Advisory potential. Then slight warming should occur Tuesday, before a stronger warming trend still occurs for Wednesday through the end of the week. Overall, temperatures will be several degrees above normal Wednesday through next weekend. Chances of precipitation will hold off until the end of the week (Friday and beyond), and even then most chances would be confined to the mountains as we`ll be under the influence of ridging and southwest flow aloft. The confidence of this decreases toward Sunday as ensembles differ on speed of the next weather disturbance. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/... Issued at 527 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Stratus deck remains firmly in place across the region this morning. Ceilings across the Denver metro are generally around 700-1500ft AGL, with BJC the one exception with fairly consistent LIFR conditions since about 08z. DEN/APA will likely flirt with IFR cigs through the mid-morning hours before stratus slowly begins to lift later this morning. Some uncertainty this afternoon, with some guidance trying to scatter out stratus while other keep a fairly consistent OVC015-025 through the day. Current TAF still favors MVFR cigs through the day. Expect a little bit of lower ceilings this evening along with some light rain showers, but a gradual return towards VFR is expected after 06z tonight. There is potential for a Denver cyclone to form Tuesday morning, which could advect some lower cigs in again near or after 12z Tuesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Hiris