Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301642
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1042 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Scattered snow showers are occurring in the mountains with KGJX
radar indicating that additional shower activity will be moving in
from the northwest over the next several hours. Any snow
accumulations will remain light, less than a couple inches.  On
the plains, scattered high based showers are occurring over the
far east in the pre- trough southwesterly flow region. Additional
showers are expected this afternoon as the trough axis moves out
of the mountains. All of this is covered in the going forecast, so
no changes are needed at this time.

For tonight, will be watching for increasing westerly flow aloft which
will increase the winds over the high ridges and eastern slopes
of the foothills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

The upper level trough is continuing to makes its way across the
four corners region where it will progress eastward through the
day. Instability associated with the trough is bringing continued
snow showers to the high country and points southwestward through
the overnight hours. Some light precipitation may still make it
over the lower elevations with just some virga or light drizzle
expected along with increasing mid and upper level clouds through
the morning. These clouds will hinder heating early on and keep
high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for the plains and 30s
for the high country. As the trough tracks eastward QG ascent will
increase with some weak CAPE across the region. This will bring
isolated to scattered storms for the mountains and onto the plains
by the late afternoon hours. Model CAPE projections show the
better values exist east of our area into western Kansas, but some
isolated thunderstorms will be possible east of a Akron to Limon
line roughly after 2 pm. Outside of this, model soundings show
lower level areas slightly more dry with the possibility of virga
and light precip with gusty winds along the Urban Corridor.

By Monday evening the upper trough will push into Kansas with
northwest flow increasing behind it. Subsidence from the right
exit region of an upper jet will help to bring higher winds across
the mountains and down into the lower foothills by Monday evening.
Model cross sections show component along winds increasing up to
45 kts by 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Northern Colorado will transition to a moderate west to
northwest flow pattern on Tuesday following Monday evenings
departing wave. Still weak subsident and drying flow on Tuesday with
just some residual moisture in the mountains for a few snow showers.
Main impact will be strong and gusty winds Tuesday morning as cross
barrier flow showing 40-50kt along with weak mountain top
inversion. Resultant wind gusts could be in the 40-55kt range over
wind favored locations over mountain passes and east slopes. Winds
expected to decrease some Tuesday afternoon and night as mountain
top flow transitions a bit more weaker southwest and resultant winds
will favor just the higher peaks with less winds in the foothills.

From late Tuesday and into Wednesday,  broad upper trof will
continue to carve itself out across the Pacific Northwest and
through the Northern Rockies. Resultant flow will be mainly dry,
southwest flow over Colorado, but by late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, approaching trof and associated cold front will bring an
increasing chance of snow showers to the northern mountains and over
the far northern sections of the plains. A secondary cold front will
usher in even colder air for Thursday with a better chance for
showers over the plains and possibly even snow by late in the day
and Thursday night with some light snow accumulations.

By Friday, Colorado returns to drier conditions but remaining on the
cool side in post frontal airmass. Warmer for the weekend with
returning southwest flow aloft and just a slight chance of
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020

There will be a slight chance of some rain showers moving out of
the mountains and across the Denver area through the mid-
afternoon as an upper disturbance moves overhead. Brief rain
showers and wind gusts up to 30 knots will be the primary threat.
After the shower activity moves through, the airmass will be
drying out and stabilizing with no additional aviation impacts.
Winds will be northerly through the afternoon and then transition
to drainage southerlies during the evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Dankers



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