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000
FXUS65 KBOU 191726
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1026 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy and cold today.

- Warm up begins Saturday, but more noticeably Sunday into early
  next week, with only light snow showers possible at times for
  the mountains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2024

Quiet chilly morning across the area. Clouds helped keep
temperatures from plummeting overnight. Temperatures will be cool
today due to high pressure limiting mixing and cloud cover. Cross
sections show mid and upper level moisture will increase a little
today. Removed the mention for flurries today with nothing
occurring at this time and nothing expected to form due to low
level drying. Also removed PoPs in the mountains for this morning.
Did leave low chances in the forecast this afternoon for the
increase in mid level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2024

The low level thermal gradient is parked over us this morning. We
had a long period of flurries due to weak isentropic lift over the
frontal boundary. This is starting to fade, and we`re seeing the
radar echoes diminish, but the clouds will likely persist due to
low level east winds and the ribbon of weak lift going on at
mid/high levels. While the clouds kept temperatures a bit warmer
than expected overnight, it also looks like clouds today will be
thicker/more persistent than previously thought, so highs mainly
in the 20s still look good. There`s not much change in all of this
for tonight, so we`ve increased cloud cover and brought up the
forecast lows a little above guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2024

Saturday`s primary forecast challenge revolves around the
temperature. The potent surface high that brought our recent
arctic air intrusion will continue to slowly deflate and push
eastward, but the cold and very shallow low-level air mass will
still linger over the eastern plains, most likely keeping those
locations below freezing. If it`s shallow enough, temperatures
across the slightly higher terrain along the urban corridor may
climb into the 40`s, but ensemble guidance still produces a larger
range of maximum temperatures for Saturday relative to previous
days, suggestive of continued uncertainty. Highest chances for
highs exceeding 40F will be for areas south and west of Denver,
where light southwesterly downslope winds off the Palmer Divide
may result in sufficient compressional warming to squeeze the
colder air out. There will still be some high clouds around as
well, along with fairly widespread snow cover to maintain
temperatures on the cooler side, but all areas will stay dry.

By Sunday, that shallow cold air should be flushed out and east
of our area, with temperatures beginning to bounce back closer to
seasonal normals more noticeably, pushing the lower elevations
into the upper 40`s to low 50`s. Meanwhile, a troughing pattern
will be gradually developing along the West Coast, with a weak
shortwave just ahead of it tracking across Colorado. This feature
will be enough to produce some light mountain snow showers, but
any accumulations will be of little consequence.

Broader troughing then looks to slowly drift southeastward early
next week, into southern AZ/NM and eventually near the
northwestern Texas-Mexico border by midweek. This translates into
a few opportunities for light mountain snow showers Wednesday
onward, but generally favors dry conditions farther east, with
relatively mild conditions persisting. Still cannot rule out a
slightly more northward track based on a small minority of
ensemble members, which would leave the door open for some
precipitation for the lower elevations, so for now a slight chance
of precipitation seems sufficient for Thursday to cover the
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1026 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2024

VFR to prevail with mid and high clouds. Slight chance ceilings
fall as low as 8000 feet 22-03Z. Wind direction forecast will be
challenging, but speeds will remain light and less than 15 knots.
Winds to turn counter-clockwise today, eventually becoming a
northerly direction around 00Z. Then tonight southerly drainage
winds will set up 06-08Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Meier