Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 242047
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
247 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022

The upper level low pressure system will slowly move into the
central plains tonight and Wednesday. A drier and more subsident
airmass sill slowly move west to east across Colorado tonight with
showers ending in most areas around midnight. For the rest of the
is afternoon, expect good coverage of showers over the mountains
and foothills with weak upslope flow, abundant moisture and moist
adiabatic lapse rates. This will already occurring based on
latest radar imagery. Decided to leave the winter weather advisory
going for now due to the increase coverage of showers expected.
However, most roadways remain just wet and overall impacts may be
just minimal.

From later tonight and Wednesday high pressure ridge aloft will be
over Colorado with a moderate northerly flow aloft. The airmass will
be dry with no showers and thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will
be warmer on Wednesday as 700mb temperatures rise to +7C and
corresponding afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022

Thursday, an upper level ridge will continue the warming and drying
trend. Temperatures will be around average as 700 mb temperatures
rise +6-10C. Temperatures rise into the 70s and 80s across the
plains.

An upper level trough moves into the Pacific NW Friday
inducing a transition to SW flow aloft over Colorado as the ridge
weakens and moves east. Flow aloft will be slightly increased which
may lead to breezy conditions (gusts 25-30 mph) in the afternoon
when mixed down efficiently. Friday will feature the warmest
temperatures of the period as the warm/dry pattern continues. There
is a good chance for high temperatures in the mid to upper 80 with
a few 90s across the plains and 50s/60s across the higher
elevations. Conditions will also be quite dry on Friday. Relative
humidity values ranging 13-18 percent over the plains/Palmer
Divide and upper teens to 20 percent range in the foothills. Based
on wind and relative humidity criteria alone, could see elevated
fire weather conditions. Recent precipitation will limit this in
most areas, but areas that have received less may warrant
watching such the northeast plains. Mid-level moisture gradually
increases in the afternoon leading to increased cloud. With
marginal instability around, a few elevated showers may be
possible over the high terrain, but the low level appear quite dry
keeping any chances low.

WPC ensemble cluster analysis continues to show an overall consensus
for a transition to a general troughing pattern for the weekend into
early next week. There is still some uncertainty indicated in the
details such as strength, track, and timing of embedded shortwaves.
This has lead to lower confidence in QPF, precip. chances, and
timing of best chances. There is a signal for better moisture return
to the region during this period with better moisture over the
region by Sunday. This will favor chances for scattered showers in
the afternoon each day. Better chances Sunday into early next week
over the northern portions of the mountains and north plains given
increased moisture and synoptic support. Above normal temperatures
continue Saturday with a slight cool-down Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022

MVFR/ILS conditions expected through around midnight then clearing
skies and becoming VFR. Still possible showers at BJC/APA this evening
but showers not expecting to make another eastward progress into
KDEN. Surface winds east to northeast, then becoming northwest
later tonight behind trof axis.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through
the evening over the Front Range foothills and near adjacent
plains. Amounts generally under a quarter inch so any flooding
threats over the burn scars would be minimal.

Mostly dry conditions expect Thursday and Friday. Precipitation
chances return to the forecast for the weekend with better chances
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ034-
037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Entrekin
HYDROLOGY...Entrekin


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