Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 210900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A cold front pushed in overnight bringing clearing conditions
and cooler temperatures. High temperatures for today will be 10 to
15 degrees cooler than yesterday. The upper low that was in place
over Montana will turn into an open wave and progress into the
Dakotas through the day. The trailing shortwave will be upstream in
Utah by this afternoon and is currently projected to push into the
state by the late afternoon hours. Ahead of this, mostly sunny skies
will dominate with continued increased winds at higher elevations
and across portions of the plains with the influence of an 90+ upper
jet. In the post-frontal airmass RH values will rebound to just
above criteria, however some areas in the foothills and mountain
valleys could still get close to the 15% threshold by the afternoon
hours. The secondary trailing shortwave will move into the region by
the evening hours bringing upward QG motion over the area by the
evening hours. Moisture continues to be the limiting factor for
storm development. However, model cross sections show enough mid-
level moisture and lift to keep a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the plains into the early morning hours on Sunday.
Rain with some localized gusty winds and lighting will be the main
hazards. The area most likely for storm development will be east of
I-25, moving east into Kansas and Nebraska after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

An upper level trough will exit the area Sun morning with dry
conditions through the day. Highs will be in the 70`s across nern

For Mon into Tue, an upper level low will move from nrn
California into the swrn US. This will leave nrn CO in a dry
pattern with above normal temps expected both days.

By Wed, the upper level low will remain over the swrn US with dry
west to northwest flow aloft across nrn CO.  A cool front will move
across nern CO which will drop temps back to more seasonal levels.

For Thu into Fri, the upper level low over the swrn US is fcst to
move northeast into the region. Thus may see a chc of showers as
this feature moves across late Thu into Fri.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected for most of the period with increasing
clouds after 21z. ILS ceilings are possible after 00z with a
slight chance of light rain at DEN, APA and possibly BJC. Ceilings
will increase above ILS between 07 and 10z Sunday. Winds will move
from the SE to NE through the day with increasing speeds from 12
to 15kts by 21z. Some light gusting will be possible after 18z at
APA and BJC with speeds up to 25kts. Any light rain that impacts
area terminal will be dissipating by 06z. Some thunderstorms with
lightning could impact the NE and SE gates into the evening hours.




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