Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 282148
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
248 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

The current airmass is cool and dry but fairly unstable, so we
still have quite a bit of shallow convection west of the Front
Range, and a few little cumulus clouds further east. The current
batch of clouds will diminish with the loss of heating this
evening. There was an earlier patch upstream in the models and the
real world but there`s just a little of it left with clouds mainly
limited to over the mountains in southwest Wyoming. This could
keep some clouds over Grand and Summit counties during the night,
but it still looks like it shouldn`t be enough to hold the
temperatures up much. It may well wind up just being some little
clouds clinging to the ridges. Even that should dissipate Monday
morning.

Elsewhere no changes are needed to the forecast as the remaining
winds will diminish this evening. The current forecast has lows
near the colder GFS MOS guidance which looks good and highs near
the guidance about 10-15 degrees warmer on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

An upper ridge over the area Monday evening will slowly move
southeast, with a good surface pressure gradient in place along
the foothills. With very light winds aloft, even reverse profile
in the evening, should see gusty west winds east of the divide
down the foothills as a mountain wave sets up. Luckily mountain
top winds are quite light, so the enhanced winds that are produced
will only be around 35 mph. This will keep temperatures moderated
overnight, with readings into the upper 20s along the foothills
and western urban corridor.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see a dry and warming pattern as flow
aloft turns more westerly. Temperatures will warm about 5 to 10
degrees, the most over the plains due to downsloping where
readings will be near 60, 10 degrees above climatology. Slightly
stronger winds on Tuesday due to a weak dry front into the
northeastern plains may increase fire weather concerns briefly
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be weaker on Wednesday.

Models are starting to display better conguency for Thursday. All
three now bring the center of the low somewhere over Colorado,
much further north than 24 hours ago, with the GFS now the slowest
solution. Either way, the further north solution will mean a
better chance for precipitation for more of the forecast area.
Tempeatures still look mild however, so snow levels will likely
only be down to 6k-7k feet, leaving rain across the plains.

The upper low will quickly push east by Friday morning, with
ridging building in. There may be still some showers over the
southeastern part of the forecast area in the morning, but clear
skies becoming widespread quickly. Models agree that ridging will
last through at least Saturday afternoon, with solutions
diverging after that. Will keep Saturday dry and warm, with a
chance of snow for the mountains moving in Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

VFR through Monday. Denver area winds will be mainly east to
southeast through 00z, then return to S/W drainage winds with
light speeds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Gimmestad


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