Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 242130
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
330 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Will be keeping an eye on the scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms moving out of the mountains through this evening.
Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough that the showers
on the plains remain liquid. Have not observed any lightning over
the state so far this afternoon, but the airmass may still de-
stabilize enough for a few thunderstorms. The trough axis is
evident on satellite imagery coming over the western Colorado
border at this time. Flow at mid and upper levels is forecast to
increase through this evening, keeping the short wave trough
moving eastward overnight.

After the trough passes through tonight, heights over the state
will begin rising as an upper ridge builds in from the west.
Temperatures will begin warming up across the forecast area under
mostly sunny skies. Subsidence under the building ridge will cut
off precipitation across the state, including over the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Models have upper ridging over the CWA Monday night through
Tuesday. Then there is southwesterly flow aloft Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. The QG Omega fields keep benign synoptic
scale energy over the CWA Monday night through Wednesday evening.
The low level winds look to adhere to fairly normal diurnal
patterns all five periods. Moisture wise, it looks sparse through
Wednesday. There is a bit of upper level moisture here and there.
There is no measurable precipitation on the QPF fields through
Wednesday night. No pops. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are
up 5-7 C from Monday`s highs. Wednesday`s highs are 1-2 C warmer
than Tuesday`s. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday,
models show more southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday. An upper
trough/closed low is over Colorado on Friday into Saturday. Then
there is upper ridging on Sunday. The medium models are all over
the place concerning precipitation for the CWA from late Thursday
into Friday night. After above normal temperatures on Thursday, a
cold front moves in that evening and Friday through Sunday have a
colder than normal airmass in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Scattered showers are expected to move across the Denver area
through the evening. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible
which may produce some small hail. Ceilings may come down to
4000-6000 feet AGL as showers move over. Shower activity should be
moving out of the Denver area by 10 PM MDT. Skies will become
mostly clear after that, with no aviation impacts expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM....Dankers
LONG TERM.....RJK
AVIATION......Dankers


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