234
FXUS65 KBOU 222202
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
302 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another light precipitation event is possible Sunday and Sunday
  night, with light snow above ~7,000 ft and light rain lower
  elevations.

- Becoming windy Monday to Tuesday, and turning colder.

- Some moderation with diminishing chances of any snow through
  Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 257 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Shortwave ridging over Colorado has brought dry conditions and
slightly above normal temperatures over the forecast area for the
day. With relatively light winds aloft, expect a quiet night ahead
of an approaching system.

Models are in good agreement of an upper level low trekking across
the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening, with the trough axis
centered over east central Colorado. Due to this track, the best
areas for measurable precipitation will be the southern Front Range
mountains and southern/eastern plains. Ensemble`s 25th-75th
percentiles range between 0.1"-0.4" of QPF, but can`t rule out a
narrow band of localized higher amounts due to frontogenetical
forcing under the deformation zone. Recent ensemble and
deterministic runs have continued to trend downwards in
precipitation across the northern Front Range mountains and northern
I-25 corridor- have lowered PoPs Sunday through Monday for that
reason. In terms of precipitation type, rain is expected for
elevations below 7,000 ft. Snowfall amounts will most likely range
from T-4", with highest amounts confined to the high passes. Areas
along and south of I-70 will see slick roads Sunday evening and into
Monday morning.

By Monday afternoon, flow aloft will turn west/northwesterly as a
fast-moving upper level shortwave crosses just north of the forecast
area. This system could bring light orographic snow showers to
the northern Front Range mountains, with minimal accumulation and
travel impacts. However, the rest of the forecast area will likely
remain dry due to the northerly track of the system. Model
guidance has trended towards weaker cross-barrier flow, with only
a couple of Sangster runs showing a 20% chance of winds reaching
above 60 kts. We will continue to monitor model trends, but at
this time no high wind highlights are expected.

A potent cold front associated with the upper level system will
travel across the forecast area Monday night and into Tuesday
morning. Morning lows will range from 20s to the low 30s along
the plains and teens to low 20s in the mountains and valleys.
Wednesday morning temperatures are expected to be colder, with
most of the plains in the mid teens-low 20s and mountains and
valleys ranging from single digits to mid-teens.

A warming trend will return for Thanksgiving and Friday as flat
ridging settles over the southwestern United States. Cross-barrier
flow could create windy conditions along the higher terrain,
however expect generally mild, albeit quiet weather days late
this week. The only exception would be if an embedded shortwave
crosses the state, which would bring orographic snow showers to
the northern mountains. Towards the end of the holiday weekend,
ensemble guidance has continued to indicate a disturbance bringing
colder temperatures and a chance of our first snow showers to the
plains. However, there are still many discrepancies between
model runs on exactly how this system will evolve. We will
continue to monitor any changes in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions through at least midday Sunday. VRB winds will
persist for all TAF sites for the next hour or so before turning
easterly between 10-15 kts (BJC will stay below 10 kts) this
afternoon. Expect lighter SE winds by 00Z/01Z and then typical
drainage winds overnight.

There is still some uncertainty with how the winds will evolve
tomorrow for DEN and APA. Surface low pressure is expected
by mid-morning, which will create a shear zone somewhere along the
two airports. If the boundary sets up southeast of the airports,
expect light W/NW for DEN and APA through the early afternoon. If
the boundary sets up northwest of the airports, there will be
stronger S winds up to 15 kts by late morning and through the
afternoon. BJC is expected to be light and VRB throughout the day
tomorrow, as the shear zone will not impact the area.

Eventually, that boundary should trek north, so southerly winds
up to 15 kts are possible in the early-mid afternoon. For
ceilings, chances increase for MVFR conditions as a system will
bring precipitation to the eastern plains Sunday
afternoon/evening. Low confidence if any rain showers will make it
to DEN, so have put VCSH by 22Z in the TAF for now.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI