Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
139
FNUS75 KBOU 191300
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Bear Creek Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
700 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Winds are expected to be light and maintain a
southerly component through the morning today. Gusts up to 15 mph
are possible. Chances for light rain showers or thunderstorms
will increase around 1200, which could create some gusty winds.
Moisture is expected to increase through the morning keeping
relative humidity values above 39%. Cloud coverage should help
keep cooler conditions with temperatures expected to be in the
high 60s this afternoon.
Winds are expected to remain from the S/SW overnight tonight with
gusts near 20 mph. Chances for showers or storms will decrease
after 2100. Relative humidity is expected to have good recovery
overnight tonight.
Tomorrow will see a return to warmer conditions with afternoon
temps reaching the low 80s. Winds should remain from the S/SW for
the day with gusty winds possible if storms develop. Chances
increase for showers and storms to develop after the 1200 hour and
chances for wetting rain are slightly higher than Wednesday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................3 percent increasing to 21 percent in the
afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 9 mph until 0800, then
south until 0900, then southeast 5 to 13 mph
until 1700, then south around 9 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
1200.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph until 1700, then southwest.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1300, then fair until 1500, then
good until 1600, then fair.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68 70 72 74 75 68 60 53 61 65 62
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............50 50 51 52 54 58 62 65 68 68 67
RH..............44 50 58 69 66 59 56 50 45 47 47
20 FT wind dir..SW S SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE S
20 FT wind spd..9 9 8 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.15 15 13 8 9 9 12 13 14 13 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.0
Transp wind dir.S SE SE SE SE SE S S S S SW
Transp wind spd.8 8 9 10 9 10 13 14 15 14 13
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12 15 21 27 26 35 48 56 60 57 45
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P F F G F F
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 0400, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms until 2100, then
slight chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms.
CWR.................23 percent decreasing to 5 percent overnight.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 0300, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph until 0200, then
southwest 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL until 2200, then Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph until 1900, then east
around 9 mph until 2000, then light until 2100,
then south 8 to 12 mph until 2300, then light
until 2400, then southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........63 63 62 62 58 54 50 46 44 45 59 52
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
Temp............65 63 60 58 56 55 54 54 53 53 52 52
RH..............54 58 64 69 77 80 83 86 86 86 89 89
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9
20 FT wind gust. 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 12 13 15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW E S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.10 9 7 9 10 7 9 10 13 14 15 15
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 15 9 9 7 4 6 6 7 7 7 8
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P P P P P P P
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 0900, then
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................1 percent increasing to 26 percent in the
afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts to
around 21 mph until 1400, then south 10 to 15
mph with gusts to around 21 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700, then 2000 ft AGL
until 1000, then 5600 ft AGL until 1200, then
9500 ft AGL until 1700, then 5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1200, then
very good until 1400, then excellent until
1600, then very good until 1700, then good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45 48 50 53 56 59 62 63 63 64 65 66
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............55 57 61 67 74 78 79 81 81 80 78 76
RH..............78 74 64 54 41 37 32 29 29 28 34 36
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 12 12 13 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 12
20 FT wind gust.16 18 18 21 16 18 18 21 21 21 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.1 8.2 8.9 9.6 10 8.0 5.6
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S SW W
Transp wind spd.16 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 20 17 15
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 15 22 29 60 91 123 139 157 176 120 73
SmokeDispersion.P P P P G G VG VG E E VG G
$$
Forecaster...Bonner
Requested by...David Waters
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416272.2/BOU
.DELDT 06/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL David.waters@usda.gov