423
FXUS64 KBRO 071153 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
553 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

* Mist/fog (some perhaps dense in spots) is possible tonight into
  Sunday morning.

* Hazardous marine conditions are expected to develop Sunday evening
  through Monday in association with a cool/cold front.

* Adverse to hazardous marine conditions could develop once again
  Friday into next Sunday following the passage of a second cold
  front.

* Dry weather with fluctuating temperatures are expected through
  the upcoming workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A benign weather pattern with fluctuating temperatures is
expected through the forecast period or through next Sunday.

Through tonight and into Sunday morning, the first weather concern
will be the likelihood of fog development (possibly becoming dense
in spots). Dewpoint depressions are already low (3 degrees or less)
as of this update. The combination of light winds and copious
amounts of low level moisture trapped underneath a sharp inversion
around 850 mb, per this evening`s 00z BRO sounding, will support the
development of fog later this evening/tonight. Fog is expected to
become widespread and possibly dense in spots tonight into Sunday
morning. We`ll closely be monitoring trends on if a Dense Fog
Advisory will be needed tonight. Any fog that develops tonight is
expected to gradually scour or burn out Sunday morning. The timing
will depend on how strong the capping inversion above the sfc is.

Sunday through the upcoming workweek will be dry and quiet for the
most part. A couple of cool/cold fronts are expected to sweep
through Deep South Texas through the upcoming week. The first will
be in the Sunday night into Monday time frame. The second will be on
Friday. The passage of the front will lead to our second weather
concern, which is deteriorating marine/coastal conditions Sunday
evening through Monday (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

With a couple of cool fronts expected to push through the region
over the next week, temperatures are expected to fluctuate. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s. Following the cool fropa
Sunday night, Monday`s highs will be noticeably cooler with values
in the lower 70s along the RGV and 60s elsewhere. Tuesday, highs
rebound into the 70s across all of Deep South Texas and into the 80s
on both Wednesday and Thursday.

A second cold front arrives on Friday which will result in highs
only reaching the 70s across Deep South Texas. Additional cold air
advection (CAA) on Saturday will result in highs struggling to make
it out of the 60s most places. Finally, next Sunday, high
temperatures rebound into the 70s most places and 60s across Brush
Country. Overnight low temperatures for the most part will be in the
50s and 60s. Sunday night, Monday night, and then again Friday night
and Saturday night, lows will be in the 40s most places (50s along
the RGV).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The combination of very light winds and ample moisture in place
has allowed areas of fog to develop across Deep South Texas early
this morning. A mix of VLIFR/LIFR conditions prevail at local
aerodromes. Conditions will gradually improve after 14Z with
daytime heating and a slight increase in the winds. VFR conditions
are expected to return later this morning into the afternoon. The
approach and passage of a cold front later today will lead to
light west winds shifting to the northwest and north by this
evening. Moderate to gusty north winds will develop this evening
into tonight as VFR conditions continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Favorable marine conditions will persist into Sunday. However,
marine conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate Sunday
evening into Sunday night in response to a cold frontal boundary
and an enhanced pressure gradient. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters from 6 PM CST Sunday
to 6 PM CST Monday as a result. Marine conditions become more
favorable with low to moderate seas returning Monday night into
Tuesday. These favorable marine conditions will persist through
Thursday/Thursday night. Friday into next Sunday, marine conditions
are expected to deteriorate once again with Small Craft Exercise
Caution (SCEC) to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  54  70  51 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               86  49  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 87  52  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         86  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  60  67  58 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     83  54  68  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...63-KC