Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
522 FXUS64 KBRO 190437 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1037 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 * Very warm and breezy weather conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. * Near day-to-day low to medium (15-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected from Thursday to Monday night. * Record to near record-breaking temperatures will take place through this week. * South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph will take place nearly each day through early next week. * Moderate to breezy winds will result in at times adverse marine and coastal conditions through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Warmer than normal temperatures and breezy conditions with near day- to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms will take place through much of the forecast period or through next Wednesday. For tonight, some radiational cooling in response to clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog/mist/low stratus across parts the Deep South Texas including Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen. Our KBRO 00z sounding from this evening shows a steep inversion between H850-H815. Additionally, the latest obs are showing some mist already over KBRO with 4 statute mile visibility and a dewpoint depression of 3. Expect for these trends to continue and possibly expand as dewpoint depressions potentially narrows more. Located on its northwestern flank, a strengthening 591-588 dam heat ridge will continue to drive record to near record-breaking temps through this week with anomalies on the order of 10-15F degrees above average (see CLIMATE SECTION). An enhanced pressure gradient courtesy of a nearby weak shortwave trough over the Sierra Madre and a sfc high pressure system to our east coupled with a couple of mid-upper low pressure systems that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward, will activate low level jet (LLJ) winds and increase kinematics or wind energy over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande valley through early next week. South-southeast winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will almost be a daily occurrence through next Wednesday. These winds will result in at times slightly adverse marine conditions with moderate wave heights and rip current risk through early next week (see MARINE SECTION). Midweek through early next week, an approaching or nearby frontal boundary associated with a couple of mid-upper level troughs that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward into the southern Plains could trigger a daily or near daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Jet dynamics and other forcings are more supportive further to the north across central and north Texas. That said, we continue to maintain a general low risk/probability (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms each day from Thursday to Monday night. On Thursday, the greatest probabilities will be located over the Northern Ranchlands. Afterwards, the best or highest chances for precipitation will be closer to the coast. Saturday presents a more widespread chance for showers and storms with probabilities ranging between 20-40%. Chances will be slightly higher during this time period over the Gulf Waters. Daytime high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s Wednesday through Sunday across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande valley. Monday through Wednesday of next week, temps will be slightly cooler but still above normal levels as the mid-upper trough shifts eastward towards the region resulting in increased cloud coverage and rain chances. Daytime highs Monday through Wednesday of next week will be in the 80s across Deep South Texas. Overnight lows through Sunday night will be in the 60s and 70s. Monday night through Wednesday night, overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions by and large will be in place through the 06z TAF period. MVFR visibilities (mist/fog) and ceilings (low stratus) are possible from time to time, especially tonight due to narrowing dewpoint depressions from radiational cooling via clearing skies. This evening`s 00z sounding shows a steep inversion between 850-815 mb which could lead to some low stratus clouds tonight and mostly cloudy skies during the day on Wednesday. Southeast winds 5-15 kts will prevail through the 06z TAF period. Winds could gusts as high as 25 kts, particularly during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy southerly winds through the forecast period. These winds will result in moderate rip current risk and seas with wave heights ranging between 3-6 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will at times be met during the forecast period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A strong 588-591 dam mid-level heat ridge will continue to drive record to near record-breaking temperatures through this week. Below are a list of records over the next few days for Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen. Wednesday, November 19, 2025 Record High Temperatures: * Brownsville: 92F in 1964 * Harlingen: 92F in 2011 * McAllen: 94F in 1988 Thursday, November 20, 2025 Record High Temperatures: * Brownsville: 88F in 2013 & 1900 * Harlingen: 93F in 1988 * McAllen: 92F in 1994 Friday, November 21, 2025 Record High Temperatures: * Brownsville: 89F in 1977 & 1900 * Harlingen: 90F in 2007, 1994, & 1946 * McAllen: 93F in 2007 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 73 89 73 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 91 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 93 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 83 76 / 0 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 87 71 / 0 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma