732
FXUS64 KBRO 120845
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
345 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Upper-level ridging looks to build over the Southern Plains through
the period. Broad subsidence aloft will support rain free conditions
and mostly clear skies through the period.  Light to moderate
southeasterly winds are expected today, with pressure gradients
tightening Tuesday, allowing for stronger winds along the coast
Tuesday afternoon. Southeasterly surface flow and clear skies will
allow temperatures to climb to the low to mid 90s this afternoon,
and high temperatures to climb to the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

The main threats during this portion of the total forecast will be
wind and heat. First, an enhanced pressure gradient will produce
breezy to windy conditions within Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley daily. Model guidance suggests that wind strengths
may require a Wind Advisory along the coastal area (Cameron,
Willacy, and Kenedy counties) on Wednesday and even more so on
Thursday.

Second, 500 mb high pressure will shift northeast and build over
the BRO CWFA out of neighboring Mexico. Well above normal daytime
high temperatures will occur, and heat indices will correspondingly
climb. However, the atmosphere will start out relatively dry, but
moisture will steadily increase. Thus, a Heat Advisory will become
increasingly more likely, with the most likely days progged at
this time to be from Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Clear skies are expected to persist through the night, with
mostly sunny skies through the day Monday. Light winds overnight
will pick up out of the southeast after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected today, as light
to moderate southeasterly winds support slight seas. Pressure
gradients along the Lower Texas Coast look to increase Tuesday,
supporting stronger winds and building seas. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories may be needed
for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters Tuesday.

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Adverse marine conditions continue to be expected during this
period courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be
needed daily due to breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas along the Lower Texas Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  75  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               95  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 98  72 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  70 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  76  85  77 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  73  92  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ellzey-60
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66