220
FXUS64 KBRO 120357
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1057 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through sunrise
   and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect through Sunday
   evening.

 - An influx of tropical moisture is expected to bring a low
   chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

 - Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal for the forecast
   period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

An upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the central US
through mid week, with broad subsidence and dry air aloft
generally supporting rain free conditions across Deep South Texas.
A week upper level trough moving through the southern periphery
of the ridge may briefly increase forcing and mid level moisture
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will provide a low (30%) chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze Tuesday
afternoon.

Otherwise, warm temperatures are expected through the period,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend climbing to
the upper 90s by the end of the week. The combination of long
period swell and higher astronomical tides will lead to minor
coastal flooding around high tide and increased rip current
strength for the next couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds
are expected to become light and variable tonight with clear to
mostly clear skies. Light southeasterly winds are expected to
return by mid-morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the
period, with light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and
moderate seas persisting through mid-week. Slight seas look to
return for the later half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  89  73  89 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               65  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 68  94  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         65  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  84  78  85 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     70  87  72  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60