738
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread, intermittent light snow and wind gusts will transition
into scattered showers tonight as a cold front pushes eastward.
A strengthening low pressure system will pass to our south on
Tuesday, bringing a light snowfall to northern areas and
potentially heavy snow in southern areas. An Arctic front is
still on track for Thursday, bringing chances for snow squalls
and sharply colder air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 204 PM EST Sunday...A well-defined surface low pressure
system currently moving northeastward of Lake Huron will drag a
cold front through the area after midnight. Until that time, low
level winds which have been south or southeasterly for much of
the day will gradually trend southwesterly. Winds aloft will
continue to decrease a bit, leading to low risk of strong winds.
However, some cooling aloft will occur this evening and lapse
rates steepen, leading to more of a convective situation with
scattered showers. One exception will be downwind of Lake
Ontario, such as near Gouverneur, where more persistent snow is
expected in a narrow band and briefly heavy snowfall rates are
possible. Otherwise, a snow showers will gradually progress from
the northern Adirondacks into northern portions of Vermont
along the cold front, perhaps lingering into the morning commute
times in northeastern Vermont. Much colder air with substantial
pressure rises will filter into the area in the hours
immediately behind the front, leading to a period of gusty
northwest winds. These winds will relax during the daytime
hours, which is good since temperatures will be steady in the
upper 10s to upper 20s, or about 10 degrees below normal. Light
winds and brief ridging tomorrow night will support a cold
night, although after midnight temperatures will rise as clouds
arrive and thicken ahead of our next snow event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 204 PM EST Sunday...

** A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for central and southern
 portions of Vermont from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
 night **

A winter storm will develop to our south on Tuesday, with a
coastal track roughly along the east coast reaching near Cape
Cod Tuesday evening. Onset of snow is in fairly good agreement,
with the first accumulations beginning near the morning commute
time, and snow will be steadiest, and potentially heaviest,
during the daytime hours before the back edge of precipitation
exits Tuesday night. Character of snow looks largely
average/moderately fluffy given thermal profiles, with potential
for higher snow ratios in mesoscale bands when vertical motion
is maximized amid a saturated snow production zone. Also, wind
fields will likely be light with the storm track well to our
south, reducing risk of fracturing of ice crystals.

Large spread in snowfall amounts typical with these types of
systems exists, and the consensus storm track puts our region
on the northern fringe of heavy snow. Given the event is less
than 48 hours away from starting, in coordination with other
forecast offices in the Northeast we have issued a Winter Storm
Watch in our southern areas. These zones on average have about a
50% chance of reaching Winter Storm Warning criteria (event
total of 7" or more), and this could be a bit low in
southernmost Rutland and Windsor counties. Currently the
deterministic (single value) snowfall forecast errs a little
higher than the probabilistic data would suggest, such as
compared to the mean or median, especially for areas in the
Watch. The idea is to account for greater potential for banded,
heavy snowfall rates which could lead to much higher impacts
than a steady light to moderate snowfall event. Please stay
tuned to the forecast for the latest on possible shifts both
northward (with expansion of winter weather headlines) and
southward (where risk of heavy snow decreases).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 116 PM EST Sunday...Active weather continues through Sunday, as
several systems move around an upper level trough. The first
impactful system will be associated with an arctic cold front moving
through Vermont and Northern New York on Thursday. Confidence
continues to increase with this system, and models have been in good
agreement for 2-3 days at this point. While snow totals associated
with this system may not be impressive, the setup favors snow
squalls formation, leading to possibly hazardous road conditions.
Following the frontal passage, strong winds and cold temperatures
will combine to bring apparent temperatures below -20 in high
elevation areas and below 0F in the valleys. Temperatures will begin
to recover by Friday before another storm system moves up the coast
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light snow is currently falling across much of the CWA, bringing
widespread MVFR to IFR conditions. Borderline temperatures in the
Champlain Valley will favor rain over snow and improving flight
rules. Most other areas should remain snow through the evening
hours with periods of IFR. A strong 850mb jet is also bringing
low level wind shear concerns to the region, with 30kt wind
gusts mixing to the surface. Conditions improve after 00z
Monday, with precipitation and LLWS winding down.

&&

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. Large scale southerly
flow is resulting in sustained winds likely exceeding 30 knots
this afternoon in the Inland Sea and Broad Waters of Lake
Champlain, with even higher gusts possible. Expect substantial
seiche action as waves build 2 to 4 feet in the northern waters,
and 4 to 6 feet on the broad waters. A slight easterly
component to the wind will favor areas like Cumberland Bay with
some of the largest waves through the afternoon before shifting
more due southerly. A lull in winds is possible tonight before a
shorter period of strong northwest winds develop behind a cold
front during the morning.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for VTZ010-011-018>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Langbauer
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV