176
FXUS61 KBTV 081125
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a few lingering snow showers early this morning, expect
dry and very cold conditions to prevail today and tonight. South
winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of our next weather system.
We`ll see additional rounds of snow through this week, with the most
widespread precipitation likely to occur Wednesday and Wednesday
night. After a brief warm up mid week, colder temperatures will
return by week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Monday...Snow showers have reinvigorated here
on the eastern side of Lake Champlain. This is likely due to a
weak surface trough/cold air advection interacting with the
relatively warm lake waters. Snow here at the airport is quite
fluffy, so would expect areas under the most persistent bands
(currently stretching from north of Colchester toward Jericho
and then from south Burlington SSE toward Richmond) could pick
up a quick inch, perhaps even more as one gains elevation.
Expect these bands won`t last much beyond another 45-60 minutes,
but we`ll continue to monitor radar trends closely, especially
as the morning commute draws near. Have updated the forecast to
increase PoPs, snowfall amounts, and to change from
probabilistic wording to areal coverage. Also tweaked
temperatures to match the latest obs. No other changes needed at
this time.

Previous discussion...A chilly and breezy day is expected today
as high pressure noses into the region. Scattered snow showers will
linger through the early morning hours, mainly on the western slopes
of the northern Greens and Adirondacks as northwest flow
intensifies. Snow may linger on the south/southeast side of Lake
Champlain as well due to cold air moving over the relatively warm
lake waters. And the incoming airmass is indeed cold; already seeing
temperatures in the single digits along the international border,
and cold air advection will continue through the day. Hence it will
be a cold day in spite of increasing sunshine; most places will top
out in the 10F to 20F range for daytime highs. Winds may be a little
gusty this morning owing to steep lapse rates, but they should
lessen through the afternoon as the high settles overhead. This cold
and calm trend will continue tonight, and with fresh snowpack,
conditions will be ripe for good radiational cooling. The only
potential snag will be mid clouds spreading into northern NY later
tonight. Latest HREF guidance shows this should be fairly thin
however, and could hold off until early Tuesday morning, giving
ample time for cooling. Have therefore continued to stay on the cold
side of guidance, with forecast lows to range from around -10F to
+5F. Sky cover trends will need to be monitored closely heading into
the overnight hours, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1248 AM EST Monday...Our next system arrives later Tuesday into
Tuesday night in the form of a weak upper shortwave. Winds will turn
out of the south ahead of this feature, allowing temperatures to
warm into the upper teens to upper 20s for afternoon highs.
Channeling of these winds up the Champlain Valley will allow for
breezy conditions, with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Elsewhere,
gusts will remain under 20 mph. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive until
late in the day, so anticipate snow will hold off until mid/late
afternoon in the St Lawrence Valley, then spread eastward overnight.
As we`ve seen with the past couple of systems, this will be a fast
mover, and it should be east of our region by daybreak Wednesday.
With meager forcing and short residence time, don`t anticipate more
than a dusting of snow in most places, with perhaps an inch or two
across the higher terrain and southern portions of the St Lawrence
Valley. However, another stronger system will follow right on its
heels for Wednesday. Model consensus has another clipper low sliding
along or just north of the international border, though it should be
noted that the GFS has shifted a bit south with its latest run.
Still, fairly confident in widespread snow moving into the region
from west to east during the morning hours Wednesday. South winds
ahead of the low will allow daytime temperatures to rise into the
low to mid 30s, but given cold profiles, would anticipate most of
the precipitation to fall as snow. That being said, some rain may
mix in during the afternoon in the wider valleys. Snow should start
mid/late morning and then continue into Wednesday night. Daytime
snowfall will just be an inch or two, with 3-4 inches possible in
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1248 AM EST Monday...Wednesday night into Thursday, a large
500mb low verging on sub 500 dam heights will approach. Surface low
will move east. This will be the cue for northwest upslope snow.
Some very dry air will get sucked in and flow is mostly west-
northwest, which will limit moisture from Lake Ontario. So showers
should fairly quickly diminish, though some try to establish a lake
effect connection with Lake Huron, which would allow some activity
to linger a bit longer into Thursday. If you like cold, then the
renewed bout of temperatures about 10 degrees below normal will put
a smile on your face. For reference, normals this time of year is
30s in the day and mid teens to lower 20s at night. Towards
Saturday, a surface low with marginal moisture will track east-
southeast and drop another coat of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Snow showers have been a bit more
pervasive and persistent than anticipated, but they are
thinning. An hour of IFR may take place at KMPV, KEFK, KSLK from
12z-13z from snow. Ceilings will likely remain MVFR through
about 14z, and then clearing will quickly move in. Northwest
winds have been fastest in the immediate vicinity of the front,
up to 15-19 knots. Speeds will fall as this boundary shifts
southeast, and it will be a steady decline to 5 to 10 knots
today. After 22z, winds will trend light and variable under
clear skies. Beyond 06z, winds will start a southerly transition
with high clouds at or above 10000 ft moving in.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV