925
FXUS61 KBTV 261124
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...

1. A Nor`easter will continue to move along the coast, bringing
chances for showers and breezy winds this weekend, but the strongest
impacts will remain over southern New England.

2. Seasonable, mainly dry weather continues through late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A Nor`easter centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast will be
the main weather feature this weekend, with our region on the
periphery of the system and more impactful weather further south
towards the coast. Several rain bands will move across southern
Vermont and try to make their way further north, but drier air
across the region will limit their progress and how much
precipitation is expected. Throughout the weekend, southern Vermont
will see the most precipitation after several rounds of showers, but
further north look to remain drier. The system will slowly exit the
region later this weekend into the start of next week, bringing
greater precipitation chances for Sunday into Monday before drier
conditions return towards Tuesday.

In addition to the precipitation, a strong jet looks to bring gusty
winds to the region, particularly tonight into Sunday, with the
greatest concern across the western slopes in southern Vermont and
summit levels. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as well,
especially for Sunday and Monday with clouds and periods of showers
expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No impactful weather is expected for the middle to later
portions of next week. The Nor`easter currently affecting southern
New England and the Mid-Atlantic region will exist in a much
weakened state by Tuesday night and be in the process of exiting
northeast into the westerlies away from our region as skies trend
partly cloudy. Thereafter, weak high pressure mainly controls
regional weather conditions for the Wed-Thu time frame with daily
highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This morning`s GFS
depiction of a rather sharp northern stream trough feature and
scattered/numerous showers passing through the area Wednesday
evening appears overdone. This solution has little support from
other output which seems reasonable given weak baroclinicity evident
in 925-850 hPa thermal profiles and I`ve offered mainly a dry
weather through this time frame. By Friday a somewhat more
pronounced cold front appears poised to swing through the region.
Again, moisture is rather starved with this feature, so
precipitation chances will be generally held in the 20-40% range.
Behind the front, slightly cooler air arrives for next weekend, but
values should remain within 5 degrees of seasonal early October
norms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected over the next
24 hours under thickening mid to high level clouds as coastal
storm pivots offshore south of our region. Winds to trend north
to northeasterly 6-12 knots today with occasional gustiness
into the 15-20 kt range this afternoon before some slight abatement
tonight. In addition, easterly LLWS from 35-45 kts will begin
to push northward into the area mainly after 00Z Sunday and
should persist through the end of the forecast period. This will
affect KRUT first, then other selected terminals thereafter. As
such, early morning Sunday approaches/departures may experience
occasional moderate turbulence. A few showers associated with
the aforementioned coastal storm may also affect the KRUT and
KMPV terminals during this overnight/early morning period.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...JMG/Kremer
AVIATION...JMG