049
FXUS61 KBTV 020906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
506 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 505 AM EDT Friday...

The Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Champlain has ended.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EDT Friday...

1. A cold front will bring widespread showers to the region
this morning into the early afternoon, with temperatures falling
behind the front. Crisp, dry, and beautiful, fall weather will
follow for the weekend.

2. A quick moving cold front will bring showers Sunday night
into Monday with sharply colder temperatures.

3. A push of cold air will likely result in some frost/freeze
midweek, and then moderating as we approach next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 water vapor depicts a good stream of sub-
tropical moisture extending from SW Quebec to SE Texas along an
elongated longwave trough. Radar shows scattered rain showers moving
into the St. Lawrence Valley from the southwest with steadier rain
to follow, currently over the southern Great Lakes. A surface cold
front will continue to shift precipitation east by daybreak across
northern New York and the Champlain Valley. Moisture associated with
this system continues to anomalously high given PWs around 1.5-1.7
inches, however, an associated LLJ to 40-50 knots will keep the
moisture corridor progressive, precluding any flooding threats. That
said, some downpours from more moderate rain will be possible,
especially across the Adirondacks around sunrise. The front
continues to track east by midday today, with showers tapering off
across much of the region after 2 PM. A secondary front will follow
the main cold front this afternoon, clearing the region of any
lingering shower activity and drying the region out. Along this
secondary front, some convergent flow may allow for some lingering
isolated showers across southern Vermont and along the central
Greens, but all areas will see a drying trend by this evening. Total
rainfall will be between a quarter to half an inch, focused mainly
in northern New York and along the spine of the northern Greens.
Good shadowing form the Adirondacks and Greens, may lead to lower
amounts in the Champlain Valley, and especially in southeastern
Vermont. Temperatures today will be tricky with how fast the front
moves through. Many locations will generally stay in the low to mid
60s, however, areas in southeastern Vermont, like Springfield could
break into the low to mid 70s with a delayed arrival of the front
and associated precipitation.

Cloud cover will decrease quickly overnight tonight as drier
northwest air advects into the region. Temperatures will cool into
the 40s across the area, with a few pocket upper 30s possible in the
Adirondacks. By Saturday, a picture perfect fall day is expected.
High temperatures will be crisp in the mid 50s to around 60, with
little wind outside of some light channeled north winds in the
Champlain Valley. High pressure will move overhead Saturday night,
so expect a chilly Saturday night with temperatures in the mid 20s
to low 30s in the Adirondacks and NEK, to the upper 30s in the
Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. Winds will turn southerly
Sunday, bringing some warmer air as highs warm into the low to mid
60s. Clouds will also be on the increase Sunday afternoon, though no
rain is anticipated during the daylight hours through Sunday
evening. It should be a perfect weekend for leaf peeping, so hope
everyone can get out and enjoy the foliage!

KEY MESSAGE 2: Our next chance for showers across the area will be
Sunday night into Monday as a surface cold front passes through. Our
flow pattern will amplify by the end of the weekend as a pair of
systems moves through the eastern CONUS. An area of southern stream
energy will remain shunted south, keeping the more moisture-rich air
to our south Sunday. However, an area of northern stream energy
associated with an occluding upper low over the Hudson Bay of Canada
will glance the region with showers possible Sunday night. As the
upper low occludes over northern Quebec, it will drag a surface cold
front more north as well. As such, better precipitation chances look
to be across our northern zones, and areas closer to the
International Border. A tightening pressure gradient will also lead
to a fairly strong 40-50kt LLJ Sunday into Monday, resulting in some
gusty winds Sunday Night into Monday. Soundings support localized
gusts in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley between 25-30 MPH.
Behind the front, our air mass will turn more cold and drier, with
sharply falling temperatures under strong caa. Highs Monday will
only be in the low to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A vigorous upper low will shift the 1000-500mb 540 dam
thickness line south of our forecast area. A sharp front will shift
east with marginal moisture on Monday. It still may be capable of
developing a solid, narrow line of rain given the vigorous forcing.
Behind this front will be an impressive push of cold air tamping
temperatures down into the 50s, except some 60s in the Upper Valley.
Strong northwest flow will advect plenty of cold air Monday night
into Tuesday, with widespread mid 20s to mid 30s, though areas near
Lake Champlain will likely hover around 40. There should be some
level of flow lingering into Monday night into Tuesday that should
keep frost from developing. Of course, several places will simply go
straight to freezing. Fall will very much be in the air on
Tuesday with brisk winds and high temperatures lingering in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. Then on Tuesday night, broad surface high
pressure will set up overnight. It looks like we`ll also be
around the PWAT min across the region, and so very efficient
radiational cooling is possible. Almost the entire region could
experience a freeze, and the Champlain Valley remains in the
alert window for this time. So this will likely be curtain call
for all gardener`s sensitive plants in the broad valleys for
Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will amble east after
Wednesday, and temperatures will start moderating. The next
front will arrive next Friday with some scattered light showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Rain is quickly shifting southwest to
northeast ahead of a frontal boundary. This rain is moving in
quickly in part due to fast flow aloft, including 40-45 knot
southwest winds still at 2000 ft agl. Several terminals have LLWS
noted for the next several hours, along with PROB30s and VCSH for
scattered showers. Ceilings at KSLK, KMSS, and KEFK are already
trending downwards toward MVFR, but the rest of our area has
ceilings at or above 5000 ft agl. As the front approaches, rain will
become more widespread with moderate rates moving visibility to
3-5SM, locally to 2SM around 10z-15z in northern New York and about
13z-17z for Vermont. Ceilings at KSLK, KMSS, and KEFK could spend
some time around 700 ft agl, but most areas will trend 1500-2500 ft
agl. The activity will likely decay across Vermont. So reductions to
ceiling and visibility will likely be less drastic. Winds will
switch from south to southwest, and then go northwest behind the
boundary. Ceilings will slowly improve behind the front, but most
areas should be VFR by 00z Saturday as skies clear.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes