700
FXUS61 KBUF 270537
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers are expected today into Monday, with best chances across
Central NY as a slow moving Nor`easter grazes the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are expected today into Monday, with best
chances across Central NY as a slow moving Nor`easter grazes the
area.

An anomalously strong coastal low off the New Jersey coast will
complete a cyclonic loop to the south of Long Island today, with the
low nearing the Jersey shore this afternoon and tonight. The
westward drift of the vertically stacked low will advect Atlantic
moisture westward across NY/PA, with increasing clouds. The first
chance of showers will reach central NY early this morning, then
progress gradually westward as an inverted trough axis north of
the low center rotates westward. Showers may reach the Genesee
Valley and western Finger Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Far
western New York should stay dry most of the day, although a few
light showers should arrive by late afternoon or evening.

The coastal low is then forecast to slowly meander northeast along
the New England coast tonight through Tuesday, weakening with time.
The greatest rain chances and greatest western extent of the rain
shield will be tonight, with showers then gradually tapering off and
ending from west to east late tonight through Monday as the low
weakens and moves northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this morning. An anomalously strong
coastal low will loop from just south of Long Island southwestward
along the New Jersey coastline, with its associated moisture shield
spreading westward across our region. This will result in
deteriorating conditions, with CIGs falling into the MVFR/IFR range
from west to east this afternoon and early this evening with
scattered to numerous showers spreading westward across the region.
The greatest potential for/coverage of showers is currently
expected from about the Genesee Valley eastward, with these
decreasing further to the west across far WNY.

Outlook...

Tonight...Scattered showers continuing with CIGs ranging from MVFR
across the North Country to IFR/LIFR across WNY.

Monday...Shower chances slowly diminishing from west to east,
otherwise continued MVFR/IFR CIGs.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry weather. Improvement to VFR
Tuesday, with VFR then prevailing afterward.

&&

.MARINE...
A freshening north-northeasterly flow will continue through today as
anomalously strong low pressure along the east coast makes its
closest approach to our region. This will bring solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions to the nearshore waters from the Niagara River
to the Saint Lawrence River, while conditions remain a little below
advisory levels elsewhere.

Winds and waves will subside Monday as low pressure moves away
from the region and high pressure takes back control. Winds will
shift out of the south by midweek with speeds generally less than
15 knots.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ002>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 4 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA