448
FXUS61 KBUF 291142
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue to weaken southeast of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through this morning. High pressure will cross
the area and bring a brief period of mainly dry weather today.
Another area of low pressure will bring a round of light rain
and snow, along with breezy to windy conditions later Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level trough is located across the Northeast and
eastern Canada this morning. Low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes continues to depart to the east, while cool, northwest
flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes region. Lake
effect snow showers will weaken through the day as deep moisture
retreats to the northeast and surface high pressure builds into
the region from the south. Westerly winds will continue to
weaken today. Highs will reach the low 30s across the higher
terrain, to the mid 30s across the lake plains.

Off Lake Erie...A few lake effect snow showers and continue
across the western Southern Tier this morning. As subsidence
increases and equilibrium levels lower, snow showers will
continue to weaken this morning. Little to no accmulation is
expected.

Off Lake Ontario...Multiple bands of lake effect snow will continue
from Wayne to far southern Oswego counties this morning. An upstream
connection to Georgian Bay will support intermittent heavy snow
into the Finger Lakes region. As deep moisture retreats to the
northeast, snow showers will weaken through this morning. Up to
two inches of additional accumulation is expected through
mid-morning.

Surface high pressure will move off the east coast this evening and
a southerly flow will increase overnight. A shortwave trough will
become negatively tilted as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region.
A surface low with an expansive pressure gradient will move into
Lower Michigan. The nose of a 50 knot low-level jet will spread
across the forecast area, and overrunning will produce a light
snowfall across the region. Accumulations will be light, around an
inch for majority of the area, however a slight enhancement of
snowfall is expected across the far western NY and Tug Hill where
one to three inches are expected. Downsloping from a southeasterly
wind will limit accumulation from southern Erie county eastward into
the Finger Lakes region and across the northern Tug Hill region. The
southeasterly surface winds will also produce gusty winds, in
particular along the Chautauqua Ridge with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Temperatures will rise the second half of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of low pressure passing by to our west Sunday morning will
push its warm frontal segment through the region. As this feature
crosses the Lower Lakes it will bring a period of light synoptic
snow which transitions to a rain-snow mix or plain rain as boundary
layer temps warm. That said...higher terrain may still see p-type
remain all snow. This will `likely` be the case east of Lake Ontario
(Tug Hill) where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Lewis
Co.

Otherwise...in terms of snowfall amounts look for a general 1-3",
with higher terrain potentially seeing the top end of this amount.
Where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued (Lewis Co.) there is
the potential for 3-8", especially across the Tug Hill.

Wind...

As low pressure passes by the region it will then send its cold
front through Sunday afternoon-evening, A tight pressure gradient
and a strong 850mb LLJ (+50 knots) aloft will support wind gusts up
to 50 mph within a fully mixed CAA regime. The strongest winds will
be found northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, and along the immediate
lake shore.

-Lake effect...

As a colder airmass pours into the Lower Lakes and deepens Sunday
evening, a brief Lake response will take place off both lakes.
Initially...a band of lake effect rain or rain-snow mix will
transition over to snow northeast of lake Erie. However...it will
quickly push south as wind flow veers to the west then northwest.
The same will occur off Lake Ontario Sunday night, just with a bit
of a lag time behind the front. The key take away here...the bands
off both the lakes quickly move south, this will limit accumulations
with maybe 1-3" at best.

Any remaining lake snows will end by Monday morning as synoptic
moisture depletes. High pressure builds in from the west and
overhead Monday afternoon, bringing a brief period of quieter
weather but chilly conditions. Temperatures for Monday behind the
passing front are expected to only reach the mid 20s to low 30s for
most areas, with a few low 20s possible for the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave cutting across the nations mid-section and gulf moisture
will potentially work in concert to spawn a coastal low Monday night
through Tuesday. However...model certainty still remains high as
some guidance show the low further off the coast, but the
possibility for the northwestern precipitation shield to cross the
area is still present. This system exits off to our northeast
Wednesday, with a brief break ahead of the next cold front which
brings in a much colder airmass to the region to round out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario this morning. Snow showers are noticeably weakening east
of Lake Erie. Heavier snow showers will continue between KROC
and KFZY this morning. VFR conditions will continue outside of
lake effect activity with brief periods of MVFR/IFR condition in
lake effect snow showers.

Improving flight conditions across the region today. Light snow
arrives from west to east late tonight. VFR conditions will become
MVFR/IFR at times.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some scattered snow showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep area of low pressure over eastern Quebec will slowly move off
the Atlantic coast today. Westerly winds and waves will diminish
today. Small Craft Advisories will end across Lake Erie and western
Lake Ontario this morning, and across eastern Lake Ontario this
afternoon.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. Confidence is increasing that this will
bring another round of gales to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and
therefore a Gale Watch was issued for Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM/Thomas