053
FXUS61 KBUF 161843
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure over Maine will move slowly across the Canadian
Maritimes through Monday, while supporting windy and colder weather
across our region. Persistent upslope snow will bring moderate
accumulations to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, with
moderate accumulations from lake effect snow across the higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier inland from Lake Erie. Lake
effect snow will also bring some modest accumulations southeast of
Lake Ontario including Rochester and the Finger Lakes. Outside of
these areas, only a few passing flurries and minimal accumulation is
expected through Monday. High pressure will then build into the
region with a return to mainly dry weather expected by the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep low pressure over Maine will slowly make its way northeastward
across the Canadian Maritimes through Monday. The attendant cyclonic
flow of colder air and wrap around moisture will generate some
accumulating lake effect snow southeast of the lakes...and upslope
snow east of Lake Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...

Scattered to numerous lake effect snow showers (with rain across the
lower elevations close to Lake Erie as of this writing) give way to
a band of lake effect snow southeast of the lake as we push through
this afternoon and early evening...then will continue through
Monday. The heavier snowfall rates and amounts will be closely tied
to an upstream connection to Lake Huron, which will oscillate back
and forth several times from central Chautauqua and southern
Cattaraugus counties into NW PA.

The upstream connection combined with persistent northwest upslope
flow should support higher-end advisory accumulations for the higher
terrain inland from Lake Erie, with 4-8" likely in the most
persistent bands. This being said...localized warning amounts cannot
be completely ruled out if the Lake Huron band stalls in one
location for an extended period of time. Accumulations will be
highly elevation dependent, with little or no accumulation along the
Lake Erie shore (including the NYS Thruway) where surface temps will
stay above freezing through the event. Intensity and coverage of
snow will taper off by Monday afternoon as deeper moisture starts to
pull away...with the remnants of the band also slowly lifting
northward across the Southern Tier as steering winds back more
westerly.

Off Lake Ontario...

Scattered to numerous lake effect rain and snow showers extending
from Orleans county east/southeastward across the Rochester area and
Finger Lakes Region will transition to mainly snow later this
afternoon and early this evening...while also organizing into a more
cohesive band as an upstream connection to Georgian Bay comes into
play. The most persistent snow from late this afternoon through
Monday will be closely tied to this upstream connection, which like
its Lake Erie counterpart will meander back and forth a number of
times through the period. Through tonight and Monday morning the
band will tend to focus on the Rochester area and northern Finger
Lakes region...before drifting northeastward to Wayne/Cayuga
counties Monday afternoon as the low level flow backs more westerly.

Forecast accumulations remain tricky in this area, with surface
temps at lower elevations staying at or just above freezing much of
the time and potentially limiting snowfall amounts. In general,
expect a coating to 2" in most areas from Rochester southeast into
the northern Finger Lakes. This being said...the potential remains
for localized amounts of 2-4"/3-5" if the Georgian Bay band were to
stay in one location long enough...with the greatest chances of this
across the somewhat higher terrain of southern Monroe and Ontario
counties where surface temps will be slightly cooler. Still not
enough confidence in this scenario to go with an advisory yet,
however trends will continue to be monitored.

Upslope east of Lake Ontario...

A mix of upslope rain/snow across the lower elevations and snow
across the higher terrain will finish changing to snow this
afternoon...with persistent northwest upslope flow continuing to
support periods of snow across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill
Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks through Monday.
There is minimal lake influence, so this is mainly a terrain driven
event. Expect 4-7" total across the higher terrain, with lower
elevations (most of Oswego and Jefferson counties, and the Black
River Valley in Lewis County) only seeing minimal accumulation.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Lewis County for the
snow across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the
Adirondacks. While 3-6" of snow will also likely fall in the extreme
northeast corner of Oswego County (Redfield) and the extreme
southeast corner of Jefferson County (Worth), considering the very
small areal coverage and the minimal snow amounts for the rest of
those counties, opted to leave them out of the Advisory.

Winds...

Northwest winds will gust in the 35-45 mph range into this evening,
and then the 25-35 mph range late tonight through Monday. Forecast
BUFKIT soundings show the greatest potential for a few gusts in the
45-50 mph range today and this evening across the ridge tops of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also along the south shore of
Lake Ontario. A Wind Advisory remains in effect in these areas. The
winds will result in blowing and drifting snow in areas which
receive accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough across the Northeast Monday evening will
slowly move towards the northern Atlantic through mid-week. A brief
period of upper level ridging will occur Tuesday before a shortwave
trough passes to the south Tuesday night. Surface high pressure and
upper level ridging will move into the region Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

A moist, cyclonic flow will maintain lake effect showers southeast
of Lake Ontario Monday night. Forecast winds are expected to
slightly back to west-northwest across Lake Ontario, and the
combination of increasing fetch and an upstream connection to Lake
Huron, will support intensification of lake effect snow from Wayne
to southern Oswego counties. This will likely produce a quick burst
of snow which may lead to a few inches and may require an Advisory
overnight. A forecast challenge includes the width of the band and
if there are any oscillations which will cut-back on accumulations.
The band will move north as it weakens Tuesday. Surface high
pressure and drier air will limit lake effect snow showers southeast
of Lake Erie with little to no accumulations across the western
Southern Tier.

A shortwave trough over the Plains will move towards the Mid-
Atlantic region Tuesday through Tuesday night. A surface reflection
will weaken as it encounters a strong area of high pressure. There
is a low chance that rain or snow showers make it to the western
Southern Tier as this decaying system moves southeast of the region.
High pressure will dominate Wednesday through Wednesday night and
dry and fair weather is anticipated across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level ridge over the southeast U.S Thursday will move off
the coast late in the week. An upper level trough is expected to
move through the Great Lakes region Friday through Saturday, then
the mean 500mb pattern shows zonal flow across the Lower CONUS for
the remainder of the weekend.

Warm, moist air will likely move northward ahead of a cold front
late in the work week. Confidence is increasing that rain will move
into the forecast area with unsettled weather through the weekend.

A brief period of above normal temperatures are possible late in the
work week before temperatures fall back to near normal for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep low pressure over Maine will slowly make its way across the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday. This will maintain windy
conditions across the eastern Great Lakes, with surface gusts in the
30-40 knot range through this evening, then 25-35 knots overnight
through Monday. Expect lower end VFR/MVFR CIGS outside of the lake
effect and upslope snow areas noted below.

Mixed rain and snow across the lower elevations and snow across the
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario will finish changing to all snow
this afternoon...with persistent upslope flow bringing periods of
snow/IFR to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Tug Hill and
western Adirondacks) through tonight. Most of this snow will avoid
KART, where just some light rain and snow is expected early this
afternoon, followed by very light snow late this afternoon through
tonight, and then dry conditions Monday.

Lake effect snow will increase southeast of Lake Erie near KJHW this
afternoon, then will continue through tonight before gradually
weakening and lifting northward during Monday. The heavier snow will
be tied to a narrow upstream connection to Lake Huron, which will
meander across southwest NY through the period. Expect areas of
IFR/localized LIFR in snow.

Lake effect rain and showers from KROC southeast into the Finger
Lakes transition to mainly snow later this afternoon and tonight. An
upstream connection to Georgian Bay will focus a narrow band of more
persistent snow and IFR conditions, and this will likely impact KROC
at times through tonight and into Monday morning, before shifting
eastward and away from the KROC terminal during the balance of
Monday.

KBUF and KIAG will be mainly dry and VFR through the period, with
little more than a few passing light flurries this afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes...particularly east-southeast of Lake
Ontario. MVFR/VFR for the rest of the area.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light lake effect rain/wet snow
showers southeast of Lake Ontario ending.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers
across the Southern Tier.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure over Maine will slowly make its way across the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday. This will support a period of
gales on Lake Ontario through this evening, with the most persistent
and longest lasting gales on the eastern half of the lake.
Meanwhile...high end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
on Lake Erie along with some gale force gusts at times.

Higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue Monday
before winds gradually diminish from west to east Monday night
through Tuesday as the low departs across Labrador...and as high
pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>006-011>014-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR