831
FXUS61 KBUF 160233
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances for late this evening through early Wednesday have
been increased a bit across portions of the area. There remains
uncertainty regarding the placement of a frontal boundary and
axis of greater rain potential Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Occasional chances for showers and perhaps a few storms
tonight through Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected,
but locally heavy rain is possible where repeated rounds occur.

2) A brief period of drier, cooler conditions is expected
Thursday night through Friday night.

3) A potentially unsettled pattern with chances for occasional
showers and storms arrives Saturday through Monday, but with low
confidence on if the axis if greatest rain potential affects the
local area or remains farther southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will push in from the northwest late tonight into
Wednesday morning, stall/waiver over or just south of the area
through Thursday, before finally getting flushed out well to
the south Thursday night. The main forecast challenges through
Thursday will be determining the timing/placement of various
rain chances, along with if locally heavy rainfall can occur
with repeated rounds of showers/storms.

A shortwave will zip across southern Ontario/northern NY this
evening, bringing an initial uptick in shower potential,
particularly across the northern portions of the area (including
Rochester/Watertown/the Tug Hill). Another uptick in showers,
with potential for a bit of thunder, is expected into the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late tonight/pre-dawn
Wednesday amid continued warm air/moisture advection ahead of
the approaching cold front.

The cold front will push across portions of the area through the
day Wednesday before stalling closer to the PA boarder.
Locations north of the front should be dry on Wednesday, with
potential for scattered showers/an isolated storm continuing
along and south of the front. These rain chances should become
largely confined to the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes by
Wednesday afternoon.

A couple of weak shortwaves are expected to cross the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, each bringing an increase in
shower/storm chances with their passages. The front will likely
stall by Wednesday night, lift back north slightly into Thursday,
before finally sweeping southeast by Thursday night. Rain
chances will focus near and just south of the front. Deep-layer
flow will largely parallel to the front, which can support
training and/or repeated rounds of rain/storms as the front.
What becomes concerning is precipitable water values climbing to
2.00-2.25" along/south of the front Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, which is near or above record values for this
late in the year per KBUF sounding climatology. All of this to
say that we will need to monitor potential for heavy rain
Wednesday night into Thursday where repeated rounds or training
rain/storms occur, most likely along and just south of the
front. There is disagreement regarding whether the front will
remain closer to the PA border Wednesday night and Thursday, or
if it will be able to lift to closer to I-90. Weak instability
is expected to limit or preclude any severe wx potential.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected over the next
couple of days. Dew points will climb well into the 60s and
perhaps to near 70 at times for Wednesday and Thursday,
especially south of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Strong high pressure briefly slides from Ontario/Quebec into New
England on Friday, bringing a brief spell of much cooler and
drier weather to the local area. Friday night will be the
coolest night, with much of the area (outside of urban centers
and the lakeshores) likely to dip into the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The active frontal boundary is expected to lift northeast back
towards southern NY this weekend into early next week. There is
quite a bit of disagreement regarding the placement of high
pressure over New England and this front. Some guidance suggests
stronger high pressure remains, keeping the front farther
southwest and suggesting a drier local forecast. Other guidance
depicts weaker high pressure, which would allow the front and
occasional rain potential to lift farther northeast and
potentially into Upstate NY this weekend into early next week.
The forecast is rather generic with several periods with chance
to likely PoPs for rain Saturday through Tuesday, with the
expectations that we`ll be able to better refine that period
over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered MVFR showers in the first 6 hours of the TAF, then
again after 07Z this morning, most numerous over the western
terminals of western NY state ahead of a cold front that will
come through during the middle of the forecast period. MVFR
ceilings along and in the wake of the cold front in BKN clouds
FL020-030. Winds generally under 10kts will shift to the north
behind the cold front as well.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely at
times along with a chance of a few thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday...VFR to start, with a chance for non-VFR in rain late
Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday...Non-VFR possible in rain, especially farther south.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will continue ahead of a cold front overnight with
speed remaining under 20 knots. Winds shift more north-northwest and
subside to under 10 knots behind the cold front on Wednesday. Winds
will generally vary between the northwest and northeast at 10 knots
or less late Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.

North-northeast winds may briefly elevate to 10-15 knots late
Thursday into Friday as we get a stronger push of cool air. Risks
for marine headlines are low through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CLE
AVIATION...CLE
MARINE...TMA