314
FXUS61 KBUF 101845
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wintry pattern to start the week with below normal temperatures
and brisk winds generating lake effect snow downwind of the eastern
Great Lakes. Favorable areas for accumulating lake snow will be
south of the Lakes through tonight before the flow backs and becomes
northwesterly Tuesday...and then backing further Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning such that a southwest flow will push diminishing
lake snows towards Buffalo and Watertown. Mid to late week warming
will change the bulk of the precipitation back to plain rain as
unsettled weather ends just before the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Regional radars display light snow across our region in association
with a vort max advancing through a closed upper level low over our
region. Snowfall through this afternoon is expected to remain on the
lighter side. Upstream radars display a moderate lake effect
snowband off Lake Huron/Lake Erie over Ohio.

Behind this upper level low and deepening surface low over New
England a unifying northwest flow will develop, and along with an
increase in synoptic moisture and lake inversion heights, will allow
lake effect snow to increase in intensity south of both Lakes.
Have expanded the winter weather advisory westward to include
all southern Lake Ontario shoreline counties as upstream Lake
connections to areas west of Monroe County will likely leave
narrow bands of moderate snow with accumulations of more than 4
inches tonight into tomorrow morning.

As winds back to more northwesterly tonight behind the upper
level low, expected the band of snow over OH to become oriented
towards the Chautauqua Ridge, with late tonight into early
Tuesday morning the period of when snowfall rates up to an inch
an hour to occur, pushing overall snow totals to above warning
thresholds.

Winds will become gusty tonight through tomorrow, with gusts into
the 30 mph range creating some blowing and drifting of the snow.
Strongest gusts are expected near the eastern Great Lake shoreline.

Lake snows will begin to weaken through the late morning hours, with
falling lake induced equilibrium levels and the loss of synoptic
moisture. This will allow headlines as outlined below to end by
early Tuesday afternoon. It will remain cold tomorrow with highs
only in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will dive across the Central Great Lakes Tuesday
night. This will reintroduce synoptic moisture, while also backing
winds around to a southwest flow. Late Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning it should remain cold enough for a plume of lake
effect snow to develop both northeast of Lake Erie...and east, then
northeast of Lake Ontario.

Several inches of snow is likely for both the northern Niagara
Frontier as well as east/northeast of Lake Ontario by Wednesday
morning before thermal profiles warm ahead of the shortwave
trough and the lake response chances to plain rain. Just a few
hour delay in the warming could allow for heavier amounts of
snow Wednesday morning. A snow to cold rain is expected
everywhere for Wednesday.

Behind the shortwave winds will veer to northwesterly with lake
effect rain/snow downwind of the Lakes, becoming lighter Wednesday
night with fading moisture behind the shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An amplified pattern continues through this period with a trough-
ridge-trough pattern.

This will lend to unsettled weather to start the period Thursday,
and into Friday before ridging aloft reaches our region for the
weekend.

A southerly flow behind a surface high pressure Sunday may allow for
the warmest day this period to be Sunday...with highs reaching into
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

However after a brief dry stretch, the next system will bear down
upon our region for later Sunday night and into Monday with mainly
rain showers as thermal profiles suggest this upcoming system will
not be as cold as this current system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFs predominately MVFR ceiling heights are found and
these ceiling heights will generally prevail through the TAF cycle.
There will be pockets of VFR ceiling heights, especially for
KART...and possibly KIAG and KBUF at times. Additionally lake effect
snow will lower visibilities to IFR and lower through this TAF
cycle.

Initially a northerly flow will direct bands of snow south of Lake
Erie (KJHW) and also along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario
(KROC). There likely will be an upstream connection to Georgian Bay
that could yield localized IFR flight conditions early this evening
for KIAG and KBUF.

By late tonight the flow will begin to back to a northwesterly flow.
This will concentrate the lake snows south and southeast of the
Lakes, especially KJHW and KROC. As the flow becomes more
predominately northwest to close out the TAF cycle KBUF and KIAG
will return to VFR flight conditions, with bands of snow and IFR
flight conditions southeast of the Lakes...continuing to impact
KJHW, but possibly east of KROC.

Light, synoptically driven snow will be near KART at times through
the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Lake effect snow and local IFR/LIFR southeast of the
lakes, VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers elsewhere.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow, especially east and
northeast of the lakes. Windy.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR with rain and snow showers likely,
especially southeast and east of the lakes.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.

Saturday...mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface low is along the southern New England shoreline midday
today and this low will continue to deepen as it tracks northward
towards Quebec through Tuesday. This will maintain a prolonged
period of strong winds over the eastern Great Lakes with high end
small craft conditions on the Lakes, and stiff winds through the
Lower Niagara River. It is possible that winds may reach gale force
briefly Tuesday night through Wednesday night ahead of the next
shortwave trough. A gale watch has been hoisted for Lake Erie
Tuesday evening night when the likely period and location of gales
is strongest.

Waves are expected to remain 4-feet and greater through Thursday on
the eastern Great Lakes, and not until Friday when surface high
pressure approaches the Lower Lakes will winds and waves fall below
small craft conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ001>006-
     020-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas