045
FXUS61 KBUF 032334
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the eastern seaboard will maintain dry and mild
weather through much of tonight. A cold front will sweep across the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday, producing a period of rain and
scattered gusty thunderstorms. A secondary cold front crossing the
area Friday night will bring a few more scattered showers and gusty
winds. Cooler air will filter into the region over the weekend
behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue for the bulk of the area tonight, with a
general west to east increase in mid and upper level decks ahead of
an approaching cold front. As profiles continue to moisten up, can`t
rule out a shower or two across far western NY overnight, but these
should remain widely scattered. It will also become breezy
overnight, especially in the lee of the Chautauqua Ridge. A
deepening southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover will keep it
mild overnight with lows ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Heading into Thursday, a large area of stalled low pressure will
continue to sit and spin west of James Bay through the day. This
will push an attendant strong cold front into western NY Thursday
morning, with a slowing eastward progression as it crosses the
remainder of the area through the day. This will bring a round of
much needed rainfall to western and northcentral NY (0.50"-1.00"
basin averages), with the higher end amounts tending to be east of
the Finger Lakes region. However, that will come with the potential
for a few stronger thunderstorms that may produce some gusty winds.
Vertical shear profiles (30-40 knots) support this notion, however a
lack of overall buoyancy (~500 J/kg CAPE...weak mid level lapse
rates) will be the limiting factor. That said, the timing is
favorable with daytime heating in play, thus SPC continues with a
Marginal Risk for severe across the entire area, with the main
threat being damaging winds within the high shear/low CAPE
environment. It will be a breezy day in general with winds gusting
20-30 mph. Highs temperatures will be reached in the morning hours
across western NY before falling back through the day, with this
temperature regime slowly progressing eastward.

A few showers and storms will linger into the evening from the
Finger Lakes east, otherwise drier and much cooler air will move
into the area with lows dropping back into the mid 40s to low 50s.
Development of Southern Tier valley fog will be possible second half
of Thursday night into the first part of Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A vertically stack upper-level low churning near James Bay Friday
will pivot a potent shortwave across the central Great Lakes. While
another round of showers is expected with this feature, there will
also be the potential for gusty winds up across the Niagara Frontier
during the day Friday and into early Friday evening. That said...the
overall strength of the low, only deepening to 990mb, and the
current track is `not`  optimal for any kind of significant wind
event. Even so...its not out of the question that we could see winds
gusting in excess of 40 mph. Now one other issue...timing of this
secondary cold front, which enters Friday night and then exiting
sometime on Saturday. As it stands...this will all depend on a wave
possibly forming along the front which may slow it down or hold it
up. Once the front does push east, a dry slot will bring an end to
the showers or at least most activity. A much cooler airmass will
continue to filter into the eastern Great Lakes behind the front
late Saturday, with H850T`s falling into the single digits above
zero.

Otherwise...highs on Saturday will peak in the 60s for most locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cool Canadian polar airmass will continue to spill into the region
behind the secondary cold front Saturday night and remain in place
through early next week as broad scale troughing dominates the
Northeast. There remains uncertainty in the timing and amount of
synoptic moisture within this trough though some measure of lake
effect rain showers appears likely east of the lakes Saturday night
into Sunday. The main trough axis will make a close approach by
Sunday afternoon which in tandem with daytime instability, could
cause showers to develop outside the main lake effect areas.

Sfc high pressure will build squarely over the eastern Great Lakes
by Monday morning, allowing mainly dry weather through much of next
week. Temperatures will continue to run well below normal until the
high shifts east of the region, allowing for a gentle day to day
warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist tonight with a west to east thickening
and lowering of mid and upper level decks across western NY second
half of tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will
gradually ramp up overnight, with gusts generally 15-20 knots,
although winds may gust up to 25 knots at times near the Lake Erie
shore.

Cold front moves into western NY Thursday morning, bringing rain
showers and scattered thunderstorms with flight conditions
deteriorating. Expect lower terrain MVFR/higher terrain IFR to
develop across areas west of the Genesee Valley by mid to late
morning. Looking a bit beyond the 18Z TAF cycle, expect
showers/storms along with MVFR flight conditions to progressively
spread further east through the afternoon hours. Winds will also
gust up to 25 knots area wide.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with a period of showers and a few scattered
thunderstorms. Gusty winds also possible with the cold front.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with scattered rain showers and
gusty winds.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Spotty lake effect rain showers possible east
of the lakes.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will bring building waves in offshore waters, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions developing on Lake Erie overnight through
Thursday.

There will be a brief lull in the winds Thursday night, then
southwest winds will increase significantly Friday ahead of a
secondary cold front. This will bring higher end Small Craft
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and the western portion of Lake
Ontario. Winds will diminish over the weekend, but still be strong
enough to produce a moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/PP
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM/TMA