923
FXUS61 KBUF 051029
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure draped along the eastern seaboard will only slowly
drift offshore through Monday. This will maintain fair dry and
unseasonably warm weather through the start of the new work
week...before a cold front brings some beneficial rainfall as it
crosses the region between Tuesday amd Tuesday night. Following the
frontal passage...Canadian high pressure will then build across the
Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. This will
usher in a return to fair dry weather along with a short period of
much cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday...before readings
climb back to a little above average for the end of the week and
start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong surface high pressure will remain anchored along the eastern
seaboard through this period...while aloft the axis of upper-level
ridging will slide from the Lower Great Lakes to the Atlantic
coastline. The associated large-scale subsidence and very warm/dry
airmass will maintain fair dry weather and unseasonable warmth
across our region...along with sunny skies today and mainly clear
skies tonight. About the only blemish will be a little patchy valley
fog within the far interior river valleys of the Southern Tier this
morning...which should mix out fairly rapidly after sunrise.

With respect to temperatures...850 mb temps of +14C to +15C will
yield highs very similar to those seen yesterday...with most areas
seeing readings peak in the lower to mid 80s...with a few upper 80s
sprinkled across the usual warm spots of the Genesee Valley/western
Finger Lakes. While such readings will be close to 20 degrees above
normal...current record high temperatures (Buffalo...86/2007,
Rochester...91/1951, and Watertown...84/1951) appear safe...with
Watertown likely to be the location where the above is most closely
approached. Lows tonight will then range from the upper 40s across
the far interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 50s
across the lake plains of far western New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure that has been dominating our weather for an extended
period of time bringing the dry and very warm conditions, will bring
one final day of these conditions on Monday, before finally starting
to get nudged further east out into the Atlantic as a potent upper
level trough digs southeast across the upper Great Lakes with an
attendant strong surface cold front following suit.

Clouds will thicken from west to east Monday night ahead of the cold
front as it continues to trek eastward across central Great Lakes,
with a chance for a few showers across western areas by daybreak
Tuesday. The main show will come Tuesday and Tuesday night as the
cold front trudges across western and northcentral NY. Confidence in
a widespread beneficial rain continues to increase due to favorable
timing of the frontal passage in conjunction with daytime heating,
which will help boost embedded convective potential, although
instability remains quite meager and thus stronger convection is not
anticipated with nothing more than some rumbles of thunder expected.
In addition, there is the potential for one, possibly two weak waves
to ripple northeast along the boundary as it crosses the area. This
would not only help to enhance rainfall amounts, but would also act
to slow the eastward progression of the front a bit, thus giving it
more residency time over the region. Confidence in timing of these
weak waves is low at this point though. Bulk of the rainfall is
expected to fall Tuesday through the first half of Tuesday night. In
terms of rainfall amounts, a widespread 0.5"-1.0" is expected across
the forecast area, with some of the higher terrain areas possibly
exceeding an inch.

Cold front slides east of the area by late Tuesday night with
another large area of Canadian-sourced high pressure set to build
across the lower Great Lakes region Wednesday. This will act to
quickly end any lingering showers by Wednesday morning with a return
to dry, but seasonably chilly conditions as 850mb temps drop into
the lower single digits C (closer to 0C North Country). Despite this
chilly airmass flowing across the much warmer lake waters, the
plethora of dry air in the mid levels and within the northerly
boundary layer flow will limit any lake response to no more than
possibly some extra clouds south of Lake Ontario Wednesday night.
Daytime highs will go from 15-20 degrees above normal on Monday, to
slightly below normal by Wednesday under strong CAA in the wake of
the frontal passage. Strong surface high pressure will situate
itself just north of the region Wednesday night, with a very dry
airmass likely promoting clear skies and light winds. This will lead
to a favorable setup for frost potential, especially across the
traditionally colder areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The brief stretch of below average temperatures is expected to be
relatively brief as high pressure slides near or right over the area
Thursday and off the New England coast on Friday, however this
feature should keep dry weather intact through at least the finish
of the work week. Near average daytime highs Thursday will rebound
back up to a little above average for Friday and Saturday under the
warming southerly return flow on the west side of high pressure, but
nothing in the way of warmth like we are currently experiencing.

Precipitation: Latest NBM guidance continues to show low-end chances
for showers heading into the start of the weekend. Up until now,
have leaned more heavily on ensemble guidance as medium range
deterministic guidance packages have been in disagreement on overall
pattern evolution, while also having run-to-run inconsistencies.
Just gazing at the latest 05/00Z suite, medium range guidance has
come into much better agreement on the general pattern late next
week into next weekend, showing a trend toward an overall drier
solution. Now we will have to see if this solution remains
consistent. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure anchored along the eastern seaboard will
largely provide our region with widespread VFR conditions through
tonight. The only exception to this will come in the form of some
limited IFR river valley fog across the interior of Southern
Tier early this morning...with this remaining east of the KJHW
terminal.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with widespread showers and a
couple isolated thunderstorms possible...diminishing later Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR ceilings early, otherwise VFR.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure draped along the Atlantic coastline will maintain
relatively light winds and minimal waves across the Lower Great
Lakes today. As the high slowly drifts offshore and a cold front
approaches from the northwest...southerlies to south-southwesterlies
will then gradually pick up tonight through Monday night. While this
will lead to the development of some chop...the orientation of the
flow will direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters.

The cold front will then cross the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday and
early Tuesday evening...bringing fairly widespread showers and
perhaps a couple isolated thunderstorms. In its wake...winds will
freshen and veer to northwesterly and then northerly Tuesday night
and early Wednesday...likely bringing advisory-worthy conditions to
areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario...and choppy conditions
elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR