136
FXUS61 KBUF 022339
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unusually warm weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with
forecast temperatures potentially reaching record highs for early
November.

2) There is high probability of widespread showers as a cold front
arrives Wednesday night through Thursday. Unsettled weather is
expected to continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unusually warm weather is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, with forecast temperatures potentially reaching record
highs for early November.

A strong upper level ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through mid-week...while surface high pressure persists just off the
eastern seaboard. While the above features will maintain mainly dry
weather...though there may be just enough warm air advection/
isentropic ascent attendant to a passing weak warm front to generate
a few widely scattered showers across western New York very late
tonight and Tuesday morning...and across north-central NY from late
Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Following the passage of
the warm front...dry air advection and subsidence will bring a
general west to east decrease in cloud cover Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night.

While clouds and a few showers impact the region Tuesday, 850mb
temperatures are expected to reach +11C. Max temperatures are
expected to reach the low 70s across western NY and the mid to upper
60s across north-central NY. The upper level ridge is expected to
build further north with 850mb temperatures climbing to +13C on
Wednesday. Another very warm day for early November is expected with
maximum temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. Forecast
southerly winds will likely limit lake breeze influences across the
region. This setup translates to a very unusual event for the region
for early November according to the ECMWF EFI. See Climate section
for more information on record temperatures.

A 25-30 knot low level jet is expected to move into the western
Southern Tier Tuesday night. A south-southeast surface wind and
modest inversion may support gusty downslope winds up to 30 mph
along and to the lee of the Chautauqua Ridge. Gusts will lessen in
this area Wednesday.

Cooler air will build into the region from west to east Thursday,
however it will remain warm especially from the Finger Lakes region
into north-central NY. Cooler weather, although still above normal
is expected Friday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is high probability of widespread showers as a
cold front arrives Wednesday night through Thursday. Unsettled
weather is expected to continue into the weekend.

A deep trough and closed low will move into the Great Lakes region
late in the week. A deep southerly flow originating from the
Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will send a plume of moisture
into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Forcing from the surface to 500mb and deep
moisture will support high confidence for showers across the
region. This will provide some relief to the recent dry spell,
however the residence time of showers will be short-lived as the
plume of moisture moves east of the region by Thursday
afternoon. Forecast rainfall amounts are less than 0.25" across
western NY, even less across the Genesee Valley and Finger
Lakes region, and 0.25-0.50" across north-central NY with the
highest amounts expected across the Tug Hill region.

The trough will move overhead Friday through Saturday. A cold front
is expected to move across the region and showers will be possible
through this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid and high-level VFR cloudiness will thicken and lower through the
VFR range with the approach of a weak warm front tonight...with
ceilings likely dropping into the upper MVFR range for a short
period attendant to the warm frontal passage between later tonight
and Tuesday...when a few spotty light showers will also be possible.
The MVFR ceilings will be most likely at KJHW between 06z-11z...
KBUF/KIAG between 09z-14z...and KART between 15z-21z. Following the
passage of the warm front and any showers...dry air advection and
subsidence will result in any MVFR/lower VFR cloud cover scattering
out from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with showers
likely at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong surface high centered just off the Mid Atlantic coastline
will continue to slowly drift out to sea through Tuesday. Light to
modest south to southwesterly flow will prevail through Tuesday.
Southerly flow will strengthen some Wednesday ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. While this may produce some modest chop
on area lakes...conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While a few spotty showers cannot be ruled out later on tonight
and Tuesday...dry/warm weather and very dry fine fuels will
otherwise persist through midweek. An initial cold front should
then bring a somewhat better chance for more widespread showers
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unusually warm weather across western and north-central NY is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast temperatures are expected
to be around 20 degrees above normal for part of the first week of November.
Here is a list of record high temperatures, record high minimum
temperatures, and normals for the next few days.

                 Record High Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Tuesday, November 3     80(1961)    75(1938)     74(1961)
Normal                  53          54           52

Wednesday, November 4   74(2022)    78(2015)     73(2015)
Normal                  52          54           51

                 Record High Minimum Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Tuesday, November 3     58(1938)    58(1975)     57(1961)
Normal                  38          38           34

Wednesday, November 4   57(1935)    58(1987)     56(1987)
Normal                  38          38           33

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...AR/JJR
FIRE WEATHER...JJR
CLIMATE...HSK