513
FXUS61 KBUF 181018
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
518 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light lake effect flurries will linger this morning southeast
of Lake Ontario from Wayne to southern Oswego County, otherwise dry
weather will return today with less wind than the past few days.
Weak low pressure will then pass south of the region tonight and may
spread some light rain and wet snow across the Southern Tier with
little or no accumulation. High pressure will then build into the
Great Lakes with dry weather and a gradual warming trend Wednesday
through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow has mostly ended southeast of Lake Ontario early
this morning, although there may still be a few scattered light
flurries across Wayne, Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties.

Otherwise, dry weather returns today as a narrow ridge of surface
high pressure builds east across the eastern Great Lakes.
Diminishing gradient will allow for much less wind than the past few
days, with highs running about 5F below average for mid November.

Tonight, mainly dry weather will continue for most of the area as
high pressure drifts east across southern Ontario. A weakening wave
of low pressure and mid level shortwave will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic tonight. Most of the precip with this
feature will remain south of the area across PA where deeper
moisture and stronger frontogensis is found. Some light precip on
the northern edge of the system may cross the western Southern Tier
for a few hours during the mid to late evening with a mix of light
rain and wet snow of little consequence. Dry weather will return
areawide before daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the central Great Lakes Wednesday will drift east
across New York State Wednesday night, then into New England on
Thursday providing a period of tranquil weather and light winds.
Light northerly flow Wednesday will veer southerly by Thursday as
the center of the high moves east of the area. This will be
reflected in our temperatures as daytime highs still a few degrees
below normal on Wednesday increase to near seasonal norms on
Thursday with the light southerly return flow in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over northern Ontario Thursday night will slide east
into central Quebec Friday while sending an attendant cold front
through western and northcentral NY Friday. This will bring the
likelihood for a round of mainly light rain showers to the area late
Thursday night into Friday. Cold front settles south of the region
Friday night with a cooler airmass moving into the region in the
wake of the fropa. A few lake effect rain and snow showers may
linger Friday night into Saturday southeast of the Lakes with
cyclonic flow overhead and a cool northwesterly low level flow in
place, otherwise increasing subsidence and drier air associated with
high pressure building in from the west is expected to provide
mainly dry weather for the upcoming weekend. Low pressure moving
east along the U.S./Canadian border may bring the next better chance
of showers for the tail end of the period, dependent on track and
timing.

Temperatures will be seasonable through the period, although will
rise a bit above normal Friday just ahead of the cold frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few scattered flurries are still possible this morning southeast
of Lake Ontario from near KSDC to KFZY, otherwise dry weather will
prevail today. CIGS will be mainly VFR for lower elevations, with
MVFR lasting through midday across higher terrain.

Tonight, dry weather and VFR will prevail for most areas. Weakening
low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic, and
the northern edge of the precip shield may produce a little light
rain and wet snow along with MVFR CIGS across the Southern Tier for
a few hours late evening through the early overnight. If this
materializes, it will end before daybreak Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure over the the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
move away from the region, with winds continuing to diminish from
west to east today. Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger on
the east half of Lake Ontario through midday before high pressure
builds east across the Great Lakes tonight through Wednesday with a
return to light winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock