900
FXUS61 KBUF 111510
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1010 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally heavy lake effect snow southeast of the lakes will focus
across the higher terrain southeast of Lake Erie, and from just east
of Rochester into portions of Central NY off Lake Ontario today
through tonight. Lake effect snow will weaken by Friday morning off
Lake Erie, but will continue through Friday east of Lake Ontario
with some additional accumulations. Another fresh batch of cold air
will arrive over the weekend, likely supporting another round of
accumulating lake effect snow east of the lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of this writing...have cancelled the Winter Storm Warning east of
Lake Ontario, with additional accumulations from lingering upslope
snow showers across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill/western
Adirondack foothills expected to be on the order of an inch or less.

Otherwise, our attention is now on the mesoscale with locally heavy
lake effect snow southeast of the lakes. Lake induced equilibrium
levels will rise to around 15K feet today as the pool of coldest mid
level air crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Sufficient synoptic scale
moisture and a deep dendritic growth zone within the cloud bearing
layer will support efficient cloud microphysics for large dendrite
conglomerates within the lake effect bands, resulting in plenty of
fluff factor in the snowfall.

Off Lake Erie...

Northwest flow will support fairly widespread lake enhanced upslope
snow showers today through the first half of tonight. The heavier
snow will be closely tied to an upstream connection to Lake Huron,
which will meander back and forth several times across the western
Southern Tier and far southern Erie County. Latest high-res guidance
suggests this band will have enough residence time to push
accumulations into low end warning range in some areas today through
tonight. With this in mind, the advisory has been upgraded to a Lake
Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and far Southern
Erie counties. Expect additional accumulations of 7-10 inches, with
most of that falling today into this evening. Overnight, deeper
moisture pulls away and inversion heights fall, which will allow
the lake snow to weaken considerably after midnight.

Off Lake Ontario...

Mean WNW flow around 290 degrees will focus the heaviest bands into
eastern Wayne and northern Cayuga counties then into the Syracuse
area today through tonight. The heaviest band of snow will continue
to be tied to the upstream Georgian Bay connection. Expect
accumulations of 7-10" in the heaviest bands, most likely from far
eastern Wayne County to near Cato and then into the Syracuse area. A
Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Wayne and northern
Cayuga counties. Farther west, somewhat lower accumulations are
expected along the Route 104 corridor in western and central Wayne
County. In Monroe County, the western end of the band will produce a
few inches today into tonight mainly along and north of Route 104,
and possibly 3-5" in the far northeast portion of the County. With
this in mind, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Monroe
County today into tonight.

Outside of the main lake effect areas, expect just a few passing
scattered snow showers today with spotty very minor accumulations.
Northwest winds will gust in the 25 to 35 mph range, producing
blowing and drifting snow in open areas with fresh snow on the
ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wedge of surface high pressure will slide southwest then south of
the area Friday. Drier air and subsidence associated with this
feature will force any lingering light lake effect snow showers off
Lake Erie to weaken and dissipate through the morning hours.
Different story off Lake Ontario where an earlier weakening band
will actually re-strengthen along the southeastern portion of the
lake as winds re-align out of the west setting up the reinvigorated
band across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego
counties Friday morning. Winds will continue to slowly back through
the day as the high slides to our south, pushing the band northward
into central, then northern Oswego County by early Friday evening.
Localized snowfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be possible in the
most persistent snows across these areas.

Winds will continue backing to southwest through Friday night as
high pressure moves southeast of the area and another Clipper system
nears the SOO. Combined with increasing shear, the band off Lake
Ontario will slowly weaken through the overnight as it moves from
northern Oswego County northward through Jefferson County to the
Thousand Islands region in a very weakened state by early Saturday
morning. An additional localized few inches of snowfall will be
possible across northern Oswego, far southern Jefferson and far
western Lewis counties first half of Friday night, with an inch or
so across the remainder of Jefferson County as what`s left of the
band rapidly sweeps north through the county during the second half
of the overnight. As winds align out of the southwest over Lake
Erie, a few light lake effect snow showers may develop off the
northeast end of the lake, with a coating possible for northern Erie
and Niagara counties.

Deeper moisture and increasing convergence ahead of an approaching
cold front attendant to the Clipper system moving north of the area
will produce a burst of lake enhanced snow northeast of Lake Erie
Saturday morning, possibly producing a quick couple inches across
Erie, Niagara, and northwestern Chautauqua counties. This will
translate east later in the day with a couple inches possible across
Jefferson County during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect lighter
synoptic snows elsewhere as the front sweeps across the area, with
accumulations generally an inch or so.

Winds veer west Saturday night with some lighter upslope snows off
Lake Erie directed toward the Boston Hills southwest across the
Chautauqua Ridge where a few inches may fall. Meanwhile, a well-
aligned westerly flow looks to set up down the long axis of Lake
Ontario Saturday night into Sunday morning. Deeper moisture
associated with a nearing mid level low will raise equilibrium
heights to around 8-10K feet, with strong lift through a saturated
DGZ. This will lead to the potential for a significant lake effect
event focused east of the lake centered on the Tug Hill. Still some
question regarding timing, placement, and residency time of the band
over any one location. Mid level trough axis and associated surface
cold front will then move through the region with winds quickly
veering northwest behind the surface cold front Sunday afternoon.
Deeper moisture will be quickly stripped away, with lingering weaker
lake effect snow showers shifting southeast of the lakes. Some
lighter widespread synoptic snow showers will also be possible
Sunday with the passage of the mid level trough axis. A reinforcing
shot of even colder air will follow the frontal passage for the
second half of the weekend as well.

Below normal temperatures Friday and Saturday will trend much below
normal for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong high pressure moving from the central Plains to the lower
Ohio Valley Sunday night will try to dry things out across much of
the area, save for a very cold northwesterly flow keeping some
localized lake effect snow showers going southeast of the lakes,
along with some light northwesterly upslope snow showers.

Low level northwesterly flow will back to westerly to start the new
work week as high pressure slides south of the region, while aloft a
mid level trough moves across the region. This will bring the next
chance for some widespread snow showers, with localized heavier lake
effect snows possible east of the lakes Monday and Monday
night.

Lingering lake effect snow showers will dissipate Tuesday as a warm
front crosses the region ushering in a shot of much warmer air
(relatively speaking) for later Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
chance for a few plain rain showers by mid week.

Below normal temperatures to start the period will trend a bit above
average by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread light snow east of Lake Ontario will continue to taper
off through early this afternoon, with IFR/MVFR across the higher
terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau southeast of KART gradually
diminishing.

Otherwise...through tonight, lake effect snow off Lake Erie will
focus across the higher terrain southeast of the lake, with areas of
IFR/LIFR conditions including KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, most of the
lake snow will be found just east of KROC to just southwest of KFZY
and extending into the KSYR area.

Outside of the main lake effect areas, a few scattered snow showers
are possible at times with brief/local IFR. Otherwise expect a mix
of VFR/MVFR CIGS. Winds will remain elevated today, with northwest
gusts in the 25-30 knot range for much of the area, and up to 35
knots along the lakeshores.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR in most areas, with local IFR/LIFR in lake
effect snow east of Lake Ontario.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow
showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow northeast and east of the
lakes.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR/LIFR in
lake effect snow east of the lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake
effect snow southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderately strong northwest flow will continue today in the wake of
a departing clipper system. This will support some potential for
very low end gales on the east half of Lake Ontario. Sustained winds
may peak at around 30 knots, but there will likely be frequent
enough gusts to still justify maintaining the Gale Warning. For
western Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, high end Small Craft Advisory
conditions will continue into this evening.

Winds will gradually diminish from west to east late tonight through
Friday. The period of lighter winds will be short lived, with
another period of high end Small Craft to marginal gales over the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ003.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-021.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock