Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
485 FXUS61 KBUF 010540 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 140 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer today and dry through Monday. 2) A chance of showers Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer today and dry through Monday. The surface high overhead will drift off to our east and then southeast today to the Mid Atlantic region. While the high will continue to support dry weather, we will see southerly flow (WAA) develop which will aid in boosting temperatures across the region. Highs today will be found in the 60s across WNY, with upper 50s to near 60F across the North Country. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of showers Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming work week. A low pressure moving out of the Colorado Rockies and a warm frontal segment will extend east from this system on Tuesday which may introduce a few showers to the region. In the wake of the warm front, southerly flow (WAA) will push temperature well into the 60s to low 70s Tuesday, and the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. While the overall evolution of this system still remains uncertain, it does appear it will be dry on Wednesday. After that, the cold front will inch its way east with unsettle weather (showers) Thursday and then maybe some showers lingering through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There may be a small amount of patchy fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier this morning with local IFR. Otherwise...VFR will prevail as strong surface high pressure drifts slowly towards the Mid Atlantic today. Outlook... Tonight and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few scattered light showers possible. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. && .MARINE... A strong surface high over the lower Great Lakes will drift to the Mid Atlantic States today through Monday, then off the eastern seaboard Tuesday. Light winds will become south to southwest through Tuesday, but winds and waves will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather and warming temperatures today through Monday. This will continue to maintain very dry fine fuels and leaf litter. There is a chance of showers Tuesday but dry weather will resume Wednesday, unsettle weather potentially returns Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR FIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock