166
FXUS61 KBUF 140003
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
803 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south right
through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems
rippling east along the boundary. This will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Southern Tier at times. Farther north, the best
chance of rain along and north of the NY Thruway will be tonight,
with mainly dry conditions then prevailing for the rest of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A southern stream mid level trough will move east into the Ohio
Valley through Saturday. Several weak waves of low pressure will
ripple east along a stalled frontal zone across Ohio and
Pennsylvania, supporting more organized rain to the south of our
region. The northern edge of the rain will advance northward into
the Southern Tier and continue through the first half of Saturday
before retreating back southward Saturday afternoon.

A little farther north, high-res guidance continues to suggest
another east-west oriented band of showers will develop from late
evening into the overnight roughly along the NYS Thruway. This
smaller scale band of showers, if it materializes, will end by
around daybreak Saturday. The best chance of measurable rain in
Buffalo and Rochester for the weekend will be with this overnight
band of showers, with mainly dry weather expected thereafter.

Another mid-level warm frontal segment will generate clouds and a
few light sprinkles across the North Country this evening.

Saturday night, once again the more organized rain will stay south
and east of our area. A few spotty showers are still possible across
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, otherwise dry weather is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slowly shrink eastward into Quebec as a
stalled frontal boundary remains across the Ohio Valley and northern
Mid-Atlantic states Sunday into Monday night. Despite broad low
pressure tracking across the boundary, the high should suppress much
the precipitation potential across much of the forecast area through
the period with generally seasonable temperatures prevailing.
Scattered showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
across the interior areas at times, particularly in the Southern
Tier during peak heating in the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A more noticeable pattern change heading into the midweek timeframe
as a phasing shortwave pattern over the Upper Midwest causes a
deeper, more robust trough to be carved out across the Great Lakes.
This system will also cause the stalled boundary over the Ohio
Valley to finally lift back northward as a warm front which is
expected to move through the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. The
increase in lower-level jet forcing, moisture, and instability in
the warm sector behind this front could set the stage for a rather
active period of weather between Wednesday and Thursday. This said,
the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming trough and
associated sfc low remain in question at this range and thus
uncertainty is high in the details and overall potential for more
robust convection. Confidence is higher in a brief warmup courtesy
of the encroaching front, with widespread temps in the 80s expected
by Wednesday afternoon.

Temps and chances for showers/thunderstorms should both be lower by
the end of the week once the system passes through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region is situated between an area of deep moisture across the
Ohio Valley and an area of frontogenesis across northern Lake
Ontario this evening. Showers will move into western NY, while
showers associated with a warm frontal zone across the North
Country will mainly stay dry tonight. CIGS will deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR across western NY through Saturday morning. The low
stratus may intersect some of the higher terrain as well with
hilltop fog and mountain obscuration. CIGS will trend down in
this area as well, but should bottom out in the lower end VFR
range.

Saturday, showers across the Southern Tier will gradually retreat
back southward, with most areas becoming dry by mid to late
afternoon. CIGS/VSBY will also improve back to VFR during the
afternoon. Farther north, expect mainly dry weather and VFR from the
NYS Thruway northward.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build slowly east across Quebec tonight through
Sunday while several waves of low pressure ripple along a stalled
frontal zone across Ohio and Pennsylvania. The pressure gradient
between these features will maintain northeast winds on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through Sunday, with a moderate chop on both lakes.

High pressure will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday,
with winds veering southeasterly and weakening on both Lakes. The
weakening and now offshore flow component will allow waves to
subside, with little to no chop expected for the start of the new
work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock