185
FXUS61 KBUF 100656
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will pass across Lake Erie and the northern
shoreline of Lake Ontario today, spreading initial widespread snow
that will mix with and change to plain rain through the morning for
all areas except for hill tops. Behind a cold front this early
evening precipitation will change back to all snow with west to
northwest winds creating some blowing and drifting to the snow with
reduced visibilities. As cold air deepens over the eastern Great
Lakes, bands of accumulating lake effect snow will continue Thursday
and Thursday night southeast of the Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This early morning an area of low pressure is found over southern
Michigan, with widespread snow inching into our region from OH/PA.
Upstream observations display a quick transition over to rain across
OH, especially near Lake Erie, and expect that trend to continue for
our region, with areas near the Lake Erie shoreline quickly changing
over to plain rain...with the Lake Plain and downstream lower
elevations to follow.

Have left the current winter headlines as is, with greater snowfall
accumulations today east of Lake Ontario where a slightly deeper
cold airmass and upslope enhanced snow will accumulate a half foot
or greater through the day today on the Tug Hill and western
Adirondack foothills. Snow today across WNY will favor the hill tops
as well though, with lower snow ratios than the eastern Lake Ontario
region and less precipitation, snowfall totals will be less, within
advisory ranges across the hill tops today.

Elsewhere what little snow that does accumulate will quickly end
with the transition to rain.

Still some gusty southwesterly winds today, but with the models
converging on a storm depth that is not as great as previous model
runs and core of the LLJ remaining to our south these gusts will
generally range in the 20-35 mph range.

This early evening a cold front will sweep across the region sending
mixed precipitation back to all snow. Still favorable for snow
accumulation across the hill tops...including now the hills of WNY
on an upslope west to northwest flow, while lower elevations will
have just a half to one inch of fresh snow along the passage of the
cold front. Winds, now from the west to northwest will still be
gusty in the 20-35 mph range and with the snow ratios increasing,
this will allow for a bit more blowing and drifting to the falling
snow.

Lake effect snowbands will develop, but still a bit of
shear at first likely to leave what bands that develop on the weaker
side through Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A deepening closed low will have its 700-500mb core centered just
north of the forecast area over the southern ON/QC border Thursday
morning. Through Thursday night this system will slowly translate
east to the Canadian Maritimes, leaving broad cyclonic WNW flow
across the eastern Great Lakes. Post-frontal CAA will bring 850H
temps back down to either side of -16C as deeper synoptic moisture
circulates back around the low. This will allow moderate to heavy
lake effect snow to continue southeast of both lakes, with breezy
winds creating areas of blowing and drifting snow. Outside the main
lake effect/upslope areas, occasional passing snow showers will
bring very minor snowfall to the rest of the area, generally an inch
or less.

Off Lake Erie...A subtle backing of the low/mid level flow will
direct the heaviest additional snowfall though Thursday night along
or just south of the Erie/Cattaraugus border. An upstream
connection to Lake Huron may support an additional localized 7-9" in
this area, while upslope flow may add 4-6" to the totals across the
Chautauqua Ridge. Small ripples in the flow will cause the main band
to occasionally clip surrounding areas though overall totals should
be comparatively lower. Snows should diminish in intensity Thursday
night as drier air and (to a lesser degree) shear increase ahead of
an approaching ridge off to the west.

Off Lake Ontario...The main focus for heavier snow in this timeframe
for our CWA is expected to be in the corridor from eastern Wayne to
extreme southern Oswego across Northern Cayuga. An upstream
connection to Georgian Bay should yield similar magnitude snows in
this area with an additional 7-9" forecast. Could see this upper end
of this range increase depending on how much moisture lingers across
the eastern end of the lake Thursday night; the GFS/NAM
indicate an intrusion of dry air which strips the DGZ of
moisture, as opposed to the Canadian models which keep the edge
of the deeper synoptic moisture hanging over the lake for longer.
Have hedged above continuity but below the bullish CMCReg for
QPF/SnowAmts until the picture comes into better focus.
Otherwise, the edge of the lake snows with added orographic lift
will add up to 4-6" up on and around the eastern Tug Hill south
of Watertown.

As a surface-850mb ridge continues to encroach on the area from the
central Great Lakes Friday, diminishing lake snows will likely climb
a bit further northward. These may reach the Buffalo and Watertown
metros by the afternoon and bring some nuisance snow for the evening
commute, though there remains uncertainty in band strength by this
point.

Otherwise...In contrast to Wednesday`s brief warmup, temperatures
this period will return to running some 10-15 degrees below average.
The blustery winds on Thursday will create wind chills in the teens
and single digits, with widespread single digits Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little in terms of reprieve from the active pattern this weekend and
early next week. A flattening ridge of high pressure cresting east
of the Great Lakes Friday night will be quickly followed by the next
deep upper level trough which will dig southeast and become
increasingly negatively tilted over the Northeast through the
weekend. This will result in at least one more round of synoptic
snow for the area sometime between late Friday night and Saturday,
with a very deep cold airmass wrapping around the main low causing
additional lake effect snow to continue downwind of the lakes into
at least early next week. Sfc temps will in all likelihood continue
to run well below normal, especially Sunday and Monday, though long
range guidance is in fairly good agreement on some degree of warming
with the lake response weakening Tuesday onwards. Still a high
amount of uncertainty in the details and plenty of weather to sort
out between now and this weekend, though long range ensembles favor
an initial westerly flow becoming increasingly northwesterly in the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS MVFR flight conditions will deteriorate to IFR
within initial falling snow. A brief period of snow, with IFR
visibilities, will transition to plain rain for KIAG and KBUF early
this morning...and a short time later for KROC and KART. Higher
elevations KJHW will likely remain as snow through the early
afternoon...at which time a little rain may mix in.

Winds today will be breezy from the southwest into the 20 knot
range...and possibly lower 30 knot range downwind of Lake Erie for
KBUF/KIAG.

A cold front will sweep across the TAF sites between 22Z - 04Z and
winds will veer to west and northwesterly, while still remaining
breezy. Cold air advection behind this front will change mixed
precipitation back to all snow by the end of the TAF cycle. IFR in
snow...becoming lake effect snow through the remainder of the night.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow
showers. Areas of heavier lake effect snow with IFR/LIFR southeast
of the lakes. Terminals most likely impacted will be KJHW and KROC.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers
likely. MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with widespread snow likely.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure will advance across Lake Erie and the
northern shoreline of Lake Ontario today. Model trends are not as
deep with this area of low pressure, with the stronger LLJ remaining
to our south. Will continue the gale warning on Lake Erie for brief
periods of gale force winds today, with small craft advisories
elsewhere.

Behind a cold front this early evening southwest winds will veer to
west to northwesterly. This will maintain an extended period of
small craft conditions on the Lakes, with the strongest flow nearing
gale force late tonight and Thursday on the southeast end of Lake
Ontario. For which a gale watch has been hoisted with this product
issuance.

A persistent west to northwesterly flow will remain through much of
the remainder of this week (post gale watch) with small craft
conditions on both Lakes right through the week...if not through the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM
         EST Friday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043>045.
         Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas