719
FXUS61 KBUF 030711
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across our region today with a period of
rain showers along the front in addition to gusty southwest winds.
Behind the front cold air flowing over the eastern Great lakes will
generate a lake effect response, with rain showers southeast of Lake
Ontario through Tuesday morning. Another storm system Wednesday will
bring back widespread rain showers and the potential for even
stronger wind gusts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

... STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TODAY ...

Quiet weather this morning as surface high pressure fades to our
southeast.

Upstream a cold front with associated rain showers is found across
the Central Great Lakes and this activity will reach our region by
late this morning. Greatest rainfall amounts are expected east of
Lake Ontario, closer to the deeper moisture source. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible east of Lake Ontario this afternoon where
MUCAPE values reach 500 J/KG. The progressive nature of this
shortwave will keep overall rainfall amounts to a tenth or
two...though slightly higher amounts of rain are possible east of
Lake Ontario where deeper moisture and instability lies.

Gusty southwest winds will develop ahead and behind the front today.
A LLJ of 45 to 50 knots coupled with a PV anomaly digging down to
600 hPa will create a favorable environment for these stronger wind
gusts aloft to mix down to the surface. Favorable locations for
reaching 50 mph will be along the shorelines of the eastern Great
Lakes and then inland...where southwest winds racing over the open
lake waters extend inland across the northern Niagara Frontier and
the Saint Lawrence Valley today.

Behind the cold front temperatures at 850 hPa drop into the negative
single digits below zero Celsius. This will cold enough to allow for
a lake response, especially off Lake Ontario where a deeper moisture
profile exists. Still lingering MUCAPE values of a 100 to 200 J/KG
may allow for thunder this evening east of Lake Ontario where
upslope rain showers linger tonight, while lake effect rain develops
southeast of Lake Ontario. Localized third of an inch of rainfall
tonight southeast of Lake Ontario, otherwise precipitation amounts
tonight will be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will build into the
Great Lakes region Tuesday. Cool air aloft and west-northwest flow
will maintain a well-mixed boundary layer during the day. West winds
with gusts 25 to 35 mph are possible, with the higher gusts expected
along and near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. Limited moisture
from a departing low will support light, disorganized lake effect
rain showers southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday. Drier conditions are
expected across the Lake Erie region. Surface high pressure will
move off the east coast while a fast moving wave is expected to move
across the upper Mid-West Tuesday night. Warm air advection will
begin across the region with winds picking up late. Mostly dry
weather is expected, with the exception of a few showers across the
North Country late Tuesday night.

A sharpening mid-level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes
region Wednesday. Surface low pressure will deepen to our northwest
and a warm front will lift north across the region. A relatively
warm, southwest flow will increase across the region with a low
chance of scattered showers near the warm front. Uncertainty
increases in regards to the track and speed of the surface low, and
the timing of the associated cold front passage. Ensemble mean MSLP
shows the low moving north of Lake Ontario Wednesday with the cold
front swiftly crossing the forecast area during the day. Deepening
moisture and forcing along with a strengthening low level jet will
support showers across the region. Post-frontal winds could be a
concern with the potential for 35mph+ wind gusts. Cool, northwest
flow will support lake effect and upslope showers across portions of
the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Snow may mix with rain
across the higher terrain late Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of high pressure will move across the forecast area Thursday
through Thursday night. There may be lingering lake effect rain
showers Thursday, but overall dry weather is anticipated during this
time. A pattern shift will take place across the Lower 48 this
weekend into early next week as deep troughing occurs across the
eastern CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs and frontal systems will
bring cool, unsettled weather. Much cooler air may bring a period of
wintry weather to the region early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS a departing area of high pressure will maintain a
light southerly flow with VFR flight conditions. As temperatures
cooled to near the dewpoint localized fog has reduced visibilities
at KIAG. As the southerly flow picks up towards dawn we should see
visibility improvements here.

Upstream radars display a line of showers associated with a cold
front over the Central Great Lakes...that will reach our region late
this morning, and through the afternoon hours. As the base of a mid
level trough passes over our region, and an increasing LLJ along the
cold front a period of gusty winds is expected through the late
morning and afternoon hours...with southwest gusts potentially
reaching 40 knots for KBUF/KIAG and KART, while inland from Lake
Erie, KJHW and KROC are likely to have peak gusts more towards 30
knots or so.

Flight conditions will deteriorate to MVFR behind the front this
afternoon and evening, with showers likely to remain east of Lake
Ontario (upslope) and southeast of Lake Ontario (lake effect rain).
This precipitation activity may impact KART and KROC tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR. A chance of a shower east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR deteriorating to IFR. Rain showers late. Windy.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers developing.

&&

.MARINE...
For this morning gale watches have been upgraded to warnings for
both Lakes with 35 knot gales expected. Southwest gusty winds will
also bring small craft conditions to the Upper Niagara River as well
as the Saint Lawrence River between Lake Ontario and Ogdensburg.

Elevated westerly winds continue Tuesday. After a lull in conditions
Tuesday night, another cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes
mid week with a period of elevated winds and a wind shift from
southwest to northwest, with additional marine headlines likely
during this time frame. These winds Wednesday may be slightly
stronger than Monday timeframe.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NYZ001-002-007-010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM
         EST this evening for SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas