447
FXUS61 KBUF 150150
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
850 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight, and support a
brief period of mainly dry weather into Saturday morning.
Temperatures will rise to around 10 degrees above normal Saturday,
ahead of the next storm system that will bring a period of rain
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Behind a cold front Sunday
rain showers will change over to snow, with a little lake effect
snow southeast of the Lakes Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Regional radars showing last of the lingering very light echoes east
of Lake Ontario across Lewis County finally ending, with dry weather
now found across the entire forecast area.

This brief period of dry weather tonight into Saturday morning is
owed to ridging from the surface to the mid-levels that is currently
moving in across the eastern Great Lakes region. Warm air advection
will build into western NY overnight. Mid to high clouds will
increase from the northwest and will limit any fog development
overnight into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will range from the
upper 20s to low 30s across western NY to the 20s east of Lake
Ontario.

The high will shift east of the forecast area Saturday morning and a
southerly wind will increase from west to east. A sharp mid-level
trough will move into the upper Great Lakes region while a surface
low moves from Lake Superior to eastern Ontario Saturday. A warm
front will drive northward across the forecast area with a 40-50kt
low level jet advecting Gulf moisture into the region. Showers will
spread across the forecast area with weak elevated instability in
the warm sector. This could result in a few rumbles of thunder. The
low will move north of Lake Ontario and a cold front will move
across the forecast area Saturday night. Strong cold air advection
is expected to mix down gusts up to 35 mph, however higher gusts are
possible along the lakeshores overnight. Widespread showers will
taper off from west to east Saturday night, and a cool northwest
flow will support lake effect rain and snow showers southeast of the
Lakes late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any accumulation will
likely be on the higher terrain. Low temperatures will fall to the
30s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air advection on Sunday will start to change rain over to snow
from the higher elevations to the lower terrain through the day.
Precipitation will also start to transition from more widespread
synoptic rain/snow early Sunday, to lake enhanced and then to lake
effect through the day and into the evening. This will occur as a
sfc low pulls farther away from the area and a trough remains over
the region as temperatures aloft cool to around -10C through Sunday
night. Lake effect precipitation will change to all snow by the mid
evening (possibly earlier) on Sunday. Northwest flow will focus the
lake effect to areas southeast of the lakes. Upstream connections
and equilibrium heights reaching around 10k ft will allow lake bands
to become better developed during the evening on Sunday and continue
into Monday morning. During this time at least a few inches of snow
will be possible southeast of the lakes, but uncertainty still
remains as current guidance does have the lake bands moving some
through the Sunday night and into Monday morning. The greatest snow
amounts can be expected over the higher terrain south of Buffalo
where a better upstream connection is also possible with Lake Huron
and even Lake Superior.

Lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes on Monday and
Monday night, but will start to weaken some as the core of the
trough over the region starts to shift east. Lake snow will linger
the longest southeast of Lake Ontario with the better fetch and
slightly better location in relation to the trough. Accumulations on
Monday of a few inches will be possible, but should be limited with
marginal temperatures during the daytime hours and some snow
changing to rain for the lower elevations.

Winds will increase out of the northwest on Sunday with gusty winds
up to at least 35 MPH possible, especially closer to the lakes.

Temperatures for the period will cool behind a passing cold front on
Saturday night with highs on Sunday in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Monday will be a bit cooler with highs in the low 30s to near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The deep low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes Monday
night will gradually move away from the area Tuesday through
Wednesday, with surface high pressure building into the western
Great Lakes. Lake effect snow showers Tuesday will gradually
diminish, although a few rain/wet snow showers may continue
southeast of the lakes Tuesday through early Wednesday with minimal
amounts and impact.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through
Wednesday, bringing a brief period of mainly dry weather. Model
guidance begins to diverge on the track and timing of the next
system as a mid level trough and surface low move out of the
Southern Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will
gradually increase again starting Thursday with this system. But
again there continues to be much variability between the different
guidance packages and different runs for each.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure building in surface and aloft will provide VFR flight
conditions tonight. Expect some breaks in the low and mid level VFR
decks through the first half of tonight. A warm front will then
approach later tonight with mid level moisture spilling over
the ridge axis aloft located back across the western Great
Lakes, allowing mid level decks to spread east across the region
through the second half of tonight. Winds will be light.

Dry weather and VFR to start off Saturday will quickly deteriorate
from southwest to northeast from mid to late morning onward.
Scattered rain showers will move into western NY late
morning/midday, then spread eastward while also becoming more
widespread through the second half of the day. There may be just
enough elevated instability for a rumble of thunder or two as well.
As mentioned, flight conditions will deteriorate from southwest to
northeast from mid to late morning through the remainder of the 00Z
TAF period. Expect a period of MVFR CIGS initially, followed by
conditions worsening to IFR/LIFR areawide through Saturday afternoon
into the early evening. KART will be the last to go sub-VFR, with
MVFR CIGS possibly holding off until mid to late afternoon.

As a stout 40-50 knot LLJ moves over western NY later Saturday
afternoon within a strong WAA regime, a period of LLWS will be
possible for the KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW terminals from mid afternoon
through early evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
snow/brief freezing rain east of Lake Ontario. Rain changes to
showers/snow showers Sunday afternoon and night behind a cold front.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

Tuesday...MVFR in limited lake effect precipitation, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide a brief respite from the higher winds and
waves on the Lakes through Saturday morning.

Southerly/southwesterly flow will then ramp up Saturday afternoon
and evening ahead of an approaching cold front, with small craft
conditions expected on Lake Erie by early Saturday afternoon, for
which advisories have been issued as outlined below. These same
conditions will translate northeast across Lake Ontario by late
Saturday/Saturday evening. Then following the passage of the cold
front Saturday night, both waves and westerly to northwesterly flow
will increase further across the lower Great Lakes with an extended
period of high-end Small Craft Advisories from Saturday night
through Monday night or Tuesday morning. A period of near-Gales will
be possible on both Lakes later Saturday night through Sunday
evening, especially on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Tuesday
         for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM