778
FXUS61 KBUF 221633
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1233 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool this afternoon with lake effect rain showers gradually
ending by this evening.

2) Dry weather returns Thursday and continues through Saturday with
a day to day warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Cool this afternoon with lake effect rain showers
gradually ending by this evening.

A deep trough centered over eastern Canada will continue to support
moist cyclonic flow over the eastern Great Lakes through early this
evening, combining with cool air aloft to support a wealth of
stratocumulus.

The airmass is cool enough to support some lake response, with a
persistent band of lake effect showers today at the southeast corner
of Lake Ontario. These showers will become less organized through
the rest of the afternoon from the negative impact of diurnal
boundary layer mixing and exit of deeper synoptic scale moisture. A
few additional scattered showers will develop through the afternoon
and early evening east of Lake Ontario from upslope flow and diurnal
steepening of low level lapse rates. The last of these showers
should end by mid evening. A few scattered showers will also
continue across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier from
a combination of lake instability and upslope flow, with these
ending by late afternoon or early evening.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes overnight
through Thursday. Skies will clear from west to east tonight with
the arrival of drier air and subsidence. It will be a cool night,
with lows in the low to mid 50s on the lake plains and mid 40s in
the Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County.

Key Message 2...Dry weather returns Thursday and continues through
Saturday with a day to day warming trend.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Thursday, then
linger over the eastern Great Lakes and New England Friday through
Saturday. This will allow for a nice stretch of dry and benign
weather to close out the week. The next trough will dig into the
Great Lakes by Sunday, bringing a chance of a few scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

The onset of weak warm advection and more in the way of sunshine
will allow temperatures to recover to the mid 70s for lower
elevations and around 70 across higher terrain Thursday afternoon
after a cool start to the day. Steady warm advection will continue
to support a day to day warming trend through the end of the week.
Highs for lower elevations will reach the lower 80s Friday, and mid
80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extensive stratocumulus will continue this afternoon with cool
cyclonic flow aloft supporting lake effect and upslope clouds. CIGS
will generally be lower end VFR for lower elevations and MVFR higher
terrain. A few scattered showers will continue east and southeast of
Lake Ontario this afternoon from a combination of lake effect and
upslope, with local/brief VSBY restrictions in showers. A few
showers may linger into this evening east of Lake Ontario before
ending shortly after 00Z. A few scattered light showers across the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier will gradually end by
late afternoon.

High pressure will then build east across the Great Lakes overnight
into Thursday, with clearing skies and VFR.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Patchy fog and local IFR
possible across the Southern Tier valleys late Thursday night
through early Friday morning.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms, mainly in
the afternoon.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk WNW winds will continue on Lake Ontario into this evening,
supporting solid Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will be
lighter on Lake Erie, but still strong enough to produce very choppy
conditions just below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

High pressure will then build east across the Great Lakes overnight
through Thursday, with diminishing winds and waves. The lighter wind
regime will continue Friday through most of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock