Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
458 FXUS61 KBUF 291741 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continued to increase PoPs late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon as the warm frontal position is arriving faster and further south. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance of showers and thunderstorms to arrive late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. 2) Unsettled weather starting the new work week will linger through mid-week, bringing increasing humidity and several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance of showers and thunderstorms to arrive late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. Broad ridging across the central Plains Sunday, will continue to build, while a trough digs southeast across Quebec. Between these two features, a well defined thermal gradient will be across the Great Lakes, where a corresponding warm front will strengthen across the upper Great Lakes into New York Sunday. This being said, strong frontogenetic forcing and ample moisture advection will be overhead the upper Great Lakes Sunday morning through Sunday evening, where enough moisture and lift will be overhead the eastern Great Lakes to support a few showers/scattered thunderstorms by late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon. As the front sags south evening/night, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to linger across WNY and the Genesee Valley into Monday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather starting the new work week will linger through mid-week, bringing increasing humidity and several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Aforementioned strong ridge across the Central Plains early next week (Monday and Tuesday) will extend into the lower Ohio Valley while, troughing across Quebec will continue across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile in the lower levels, a well defined thermal gradient will remain across the Great Lakes towards New York and Pennsylvania through early next week. This boundary will waiver north/south at times as a few shortwave passages round the base of the upper level trough. With the forcing of each shortwave along with the moisture convergence along the frontal boundary, expect several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms through midweek. Initially, instability will remain limited for the start of the week keeping the severe risk low. However, the pattern will become more conducive to strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday, due to a strong Pacific shortwave moving east across southern Canada. A plume of an elevated mixed layer is forecast to slide northeastward across the Ohio Valley and possibly the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday. As this feature arrives, antecedent conditions will feature a warm and humid airmass, thus resulting in the potential for moderate to strong instability as the shortwave passes by to the north. Additionally, with the passing of the shortwave, resultant flow will be modified to support increasing shear profiles. This all being said, the potential for severe weather Wednesday will continue to be monitored in the coming days as the details become more clear. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... W`erly flow and embedded disturbances aloft affect Western and Central NY as a surface ridge exits slowly toward New England through 18Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 10 knots and mainly VFR are expected through the TAF period. Widespread mid/upper-level cloud cover should overspread our region generally from west to east between ~20Z/Sat and ~03Z/Sun. Cloud cover will thicken and lower so that widespread ceilings near 5kft to 8kft AGL overspread our region generally from the west between ~09Z/Sun and ~16Z/Sun. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned disturbances are possible after ~12Z/Sun and especially 14Z/Sun. Brief MVFR to IFR are possible with showers and expected with any storms. Outlook... Sunday Afternoon through Thursday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected, especially each afternoon through early evening. && .MARINE... Winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected on eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this Thursday. On Lake Erie, winds should trend S`erly to SW`erly through Thursday morning as the lake remains along the northwestern flank of a ridge that will mainly be focused over the Atlantic, between the Carolinas and Bermuda. As for Lake Ontario, S`erly to SW`erly winds through Sunday should veer to NE`erly to E`erly Sunday night as a weak cold front settles S`ward across the lake, stalls just south of the southern lakeshore, and allows a separate ridge to build from eastern Canada. That ridge should be accompanied by variable winds on Monday through Tuesday. During Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, the ridge should retreat NE`ward, allow a warm front to sweep NE`ward across Lake Ontario, and be followed by the first-mentioned ridge building generally from the south. Variable winds ahead of the warm front will be followed by S`erly to SW`erly winds behind the front through Thursday morning. Later on Thursday, a cold front should sweep E`ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and cause mainly SW`erly winds to veer to NW`erly. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Jaszka