Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 231534
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1134 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Spectacular weather will be found across all of western and north
central New York this week...as a large area of high pressure will
slowly drift across the Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will climb
above normal in the process...with daytime highs in the 80s Friday
and Saturday. Our next chance for rain will be later this weekend
when there could be a few showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies continue to clear across the region late this morning...as
Canadian high pressure drifts southeast from the Upper Great Lakes.
Strengthening subsidence and drier mid level air being diurnally
mixed to the surface will provide the clearing so that we can
anticipate plenty of bright sunshine for the afternoon. Speaking of
mixing...full mixing of the low levels with H85 temps in the vcnty
of 9c will support afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Some of the warmest valley locations could tickle the 80 degree
mark.

The large surface high will drift directly across our region
tonight. The associated dry airmass and light winds under clear
starlit skies will result in good radiational cooling so that it
will become rather cool. Mins tonight will range from around 50 near
the lake shores to the lower 40s across parts of the North Country
and in the cooler Srn Tier valleys. The only blemish on the
beautiful night will be some fog that will develop in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday
before sliding off to the east by Friday. This will maintain fair
weather along with a warming trend. Higher humidity levels will
return by the weekend, as tropical moisture starts to work northward
into the region ahead of a weak cold front settling into the region
from the north. All this results in an end to our fair weather with
chances for showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Better agreement among Guidance packages with suppressing the
deeper subtropical moisture well south of the Lower Great Lakes.
Over the course of the Memorial day weekend look for
temperatures to nudge upwards (U70s-L80s)along with humidity
levels as deep southerly flow will transport some of the
available subtropical moisture to our south into our region. For
now, it looks like just increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Sunday as the northern upstream
shortwave trough over Quebec Canada influences the Lower Great
Lakes. Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will cross the region
as the shortwave passes by to our north through Ontario Canada
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier
weather with less humidity returns late Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds at the surface and aloft over New York
State.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While there will still be some patches of IFR stratus across the
Southern Tier and in the KART area through 15z...Canadian high
pressure drifting southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will provide
the region with fine VFR weather for the midday and afternoon.

VFR conditions with clear skies will then persist through at least
tonight...although some fog may be found throughout the valleys of
the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region late (07-12z). This will likely
impact sites like KJHW and KELZ tonight with reduced vsbys.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes at midday will
slowly drift southeast across the Lower Great Lakes tonight and
Thursday. While this will initially generate moderate breezes on
Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon...winds will drop off
significantly tonight and Thursday as the core of the high drifts
through the region. Any choppiness from the moderate breezes will
drop off as well so that negligible waves can be expected through
Thursday.

The area of high pressure will move off the East Coast Thursday
night and Friday. This will support gentle to occasionally moderate
southwesterlies into the upcoming weekend with insignificant waves.

As we push through the upcoming weekend...the risk for scattered
thunderstorms will increase.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



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