Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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366
FXUS61 KBUF 161501
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A few more rounds of snow and rain showers are expected across
Western New York though this afternoon while an embedded weak lake
effect band sets up east of Lake Erie.  Another lake band will be
possible over the Tug Hill overnight.  Additional scattered snow
showers will remain possible through early next week along with
continued below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows an upper level
trough moving east toward NY for today.  With plenty of moisture is
available, expect some additional light rain and mostly non-
accumulating snow showers for much of the day due to lacking lift
and near or above freezing surface temperatures.

There will also be an embedded lake band east of Lake Erie that may
be able to produce a few inches of snow.  Conditions are marginal
for a lake response, but available moisture above the inversion near
~5000` should help to keep this band going through much of the
afternoon. This band, initially in the Southtowns, may move north
toward the city and Metro Buffalo areas before heading back south
early this evening.

Weak cold air advection will continue tonight as 850Ts drop to a few
degrees - to around -7C to -8C by Saturday morning.  A lake response
and/or upslope event is possible east of Lake Ontario over the Tug
Hill Plateau where an advisory may be needed. Temperatures tonight
will be in the low to mid 30s, with higher terrain on the colder
side and areas near the lakeshores on the warmer side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night a cold front will slowly move southeast
across the area as a mid level trough brushes by the Great Lakes and
New England. The front itself may produce a few rain and wet snow
showers. Enough lake induced instability will be present to support
a modest lake response east of both lakes. A few lake effect snow
showers may be ongoing across the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill
region in the morning. Bands of lake enhanced precipitation will
then move north towards Buffalo and Watertown through the day as
boundary layer flow backs to the southwest ahead of the cold front.
Increasing large scale ascent should force lake enhanced precip to
strengthen later in the day. By evening boundary layer flow will
veer WNW behind the cold front, carrying weakening lake effect south
across the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and south across the
Tug Hill region east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s during the midday
hours Saturday, forcing precipitation to be a mix of rain and wet
snow at lower elevations with wet snow still favored across higher
terrain. The marginal temperatures will keep accumulations to a
minimum at lower elevations, with a few inches possible late
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Chautauqua Ridge east of
Lake Erie and Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario.

Lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will slowly diminish
and end Saturday night as shear increases and deeper low level
moisture moves away. On Sunday a weak wave of low pressure is
forecast to move along the frontal zone stalled across OH/PA. This
will spread clouds northward into our region, and if the wave
matures enough some light snow will develop especially across the
Southern Tier with minor accumulations possible. Highs Sunday will
reach the mid 30s in most areas, and upper 20s to lower 30s for the
North Country.

The weak wave of low pressure will move off the east coast later
Sunday night with any light general snow coming to an end. The
airmass will be just cold enough to support a chance of a few
lingering lake effect snow showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario
overnight, but any accumulation would be spotty and minor. Lows will
drop into the mid to upper 20s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the Great
Lakes and Northeastern states through the middle of next week...
resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures
through Wednesday. Speaking more specifically...we can expect daily
highs to mostly be in the lower to mid 30s...while nightly lows
range from the teens across the North Country to the 20s elsewhere.
Such readings will be more typical of mid-winter than of mid to late
November.

In terms of precipitation...the medium range guidance suite remains
in general agreement on one or two additional weak surface troughs
affecting our region between Monday and Tuesday...however considerable
run-to-run and model-to-model differences still exist with respect to
the track and timing of these features. Consequently...the orientation...
strength...and amount of shear in the low level wind field at any given
point also remains much in question. With both of the above in mind...
forecast confidence in the timing and placement of both synoptically-
driven and lake-driven precipitation through the first half of the
period remains on the low side...and as such have kept mostly
broadbrush snow shower chances in place right through Tuesday night.

As we progress through the middle of next week and into the long
Thanksgiving holiday weekend...it still appears that an area of
high pressure and attendant drier weather will slide eastward across
our region and then off the Atlantic coastline...with a south to
southwesterly return flow of warmer air eventually developing into
our region on the backside of this feature. 00Z model guidance is
starting to come into better agreement with the warmer air arriving
on Thanksgiving Day, and lasting through at least the following
weekend. If the forecast pattern holds, highs by Thanksgiving
afternoon will reach the 40s on the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR and some LIFR will remain through the period with some CIG
improvement outside of lake bands late tonight and into Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR, but IFR possible east of
both lakes in lake rain and/or snow.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Rain and snow showers will continue today on the back side of a
coastal low, with some lake effect showers east of Lake Erie today
and east of Lake Ontario tonight. Westerly winds increase with Small
Craft Advisories in effect through Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/Zaff
NEAR TERM...SW/Zaff
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
AVIATION...SW/Zaff
MARINE...SW/Zaff



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