Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
634 FXUS61 KBUF 071027 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 627 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. A few thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds. 2) Drier and less humid airmass briefly settles over our region Sunday. Key Message 3...Unsettled weather returns for the Lower Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Chances of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. A few thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds. An ill-defined wavy frontal boundary remains stalled just to our west and northwest, with very little movement expected today. The next feature of interest is a convectively augmented shortwave over Indiana-Ohio, which will track northeast towards the region along this boundary this morning. CAMs continue to suggest that with this feature showers and maybe even some embedded thunderstorms will arrive across far western New York between 10Z-13Z. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding the evolution of this feature as it moves east and northeast across the region this afternoon. There definitely will be plenty of moisture, with PW values found between 1.7" to 1.9" range. Model MLCAPE shows +1200 J/kg inland from the lakes, with much higher values east of the Finger Lakes region. This may be due to potential cloud cover across our CWA which may limit storm development this afternoon and eve. That said...if we do see a fair amount of sunshine we may see additional storms form along lake breeze convergent boundaries. Any of the stronger cells that form will be capable of produce heavy rainfall within this soupy environment and possibly strong gusty winds. Given the environment WPC continues to highlight our region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Tonight...some showers may linger across the region, especially east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...another muggy night is on tap with lows found in the 60s to around 70F. Another wave is advertised to move through the area Saturday morning bringing the next round of showers and thunderstorms. After that...a cold front approaches from the northwest Saturday eve with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, then showers will slowly wind down as we head into Sunday. Key Message 2...Drier and less humid airmass briefly settles over our region Sunday. Surface high pressure quickly races east Sunday, which will provide dry weather and pleasant conditions (lower humidity levels) across the region Key Message 3...Unsettled weather returns for the Lower Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. A zonal flow early next week will begin to shift southward, with a more noticeable dip late in the week as a deepening upper level low drops southward from Canada. A moisture rich airmass will remain through the beginning of next week, one that will support not only afternoon convection, but the possibility of overnight convection (Monday night into Tuesday), though exact timing of subtle shortwave troughs is with still great uncertainty at this point in time. As the cooler and drier upper level low settles over the eastern Great Lakes region chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish once the drier airmass becomes established. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mid-level shortwave will pass across the Great Lakes along the stalled boundary this morning, ahead this disturbance showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will expand northeastward across WNY, reaching KJHW and KBUF between 10Z and 13Z. These showers will then expand eastward across the region throughout the remainder of the morning. Within any shower/storm expect brief MVFR to IFR conditions. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and pass eastward through 03Z. The best potential for the second round of showers/storms will be along lake breeze boundaries. Again brief MVFR to LIFR conditions and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots are expected with these storms. Outlook... Friday Night through Saturday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are expected. Sunday...VFR. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Light winds with minimal wave action expected across the Lower Great Lake again today. An approaching trough and then subsequent cold frontal passage may support modest chop on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Saturday through Sunday. Note: Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today through Saturday evening. Higher winds and wave action will be possible with an stronger storms. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR/EAJ MARINE...AR