Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
912 FXUS61 KBUF 142330 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 630 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An upward trend to temperatures mid-week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A pair of weak systems may bring some light precipitation Sunday night and again Monday night. 2) Warming temperatures may cause movement of ice on area creeks and streams next week. 3) Active pattern returns by the middle of next week with rain and snow. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A pair of weak systems may bring some light precipitation Sunday night and again Monday night. Sunday night, while a more potent system will pass well south of the area, a northern stream trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes and New England. This feature may produce some light snow east of Lake Ontario with very minor accumulations. The chances of measurable precipitation are lower across Western NY, but forecast soundings suggest some drizzle may be possible, with some freezing drizzle also possible in areas with surface temperatures below freezing. The precipitation will end from west to east Monday morning. Another mid level shortwave and surface trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes and New England Monday night, bringing another chance of some rain or wet snow showers east of Lake Ontario with very minor accumulations possible. This system may produce a few light showers across Western NY as well, with surface temperatures just above freezing supporting manly rain showers. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures may cause movement of ice on area creeks and streams next week. Through the first half of next week, height rises are expected...peaking during the morning hours of Wednesday the 18th- February. A gradual rise in 850 hPa temperatures to 0C Monday, and then slightly warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday will support above normal temperatures for mid-February. While not impressively warm, highs generally around 40F early next week will support riping of the deep snowpack across our region and some melting of the snowpack leading to increasing water levels on area streams and creeks. Latest NBM temperatures have noted an upward trend to the thawing degree hours...and would suggest 300 to 400 thawing degree hours over a 3-day period across western New York which is still less than ideal for ice jam flooding, but the situation will still need to be monitored for ice jam flooding, especially with the vast amount of ice present with this long stretch of frigid temperatures over the past few weeks. As temperatures are likely to remain at or above freezing during the daytime into Friday the possibility of ice movement remains possible. Latest NAEFS guidance does show a few of the Buffalo creeks approaching Action Stage by the middle of next week, a time when additional runoff from rain is expected to enter the creeks. KEY MESSAGE 3...Active pattern returns by the middle of next week with rain and snow. A zonal flow will be found to start next week, with a Pacific trough along the west coast amplifying and expected to shift eastward through the week, bringing the next chance for widespread and significant precipitation to our region. Before this Pacific trough reaches us a series of shortwaves within the zonal flow are expected to bring light precipitation to our region Sunday night and Monday night...with greatest odds for measurable precipitation near Lake Ontario and points eastward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday the influences of this Pacific trough will be upon us. Though the Pacific flow will be mild...there will be a strong arctic high over centered over northern Manitoba, ushering cold air southward across eastern Canada and towards our northern counties. This could pose a threat for some freezing rain Tuesday night into Wednesday before warmer Pacific air floods across our region. Overall, precipitation could push a half to three quarters of an inch Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Initial impacts are the threat of freezing rain region-wide, with snowfall likely more towards eastern zones, especially the higher terrain of the Tug Hill where several inches of wet snow may accumulate before precipitation changes to plain rain. Afterwords, as precipitation transitions to plain rain through the day Wednesday, impacts will become rain/snowmelt and rises of creek waters. This rain will ripen the deep snowpack across our region, while also providing additional run-off for area creeks. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad area of MVFR stratus will remain in place tonight over Lake Ontario and adjacent areas south and east of the lake. KBUF and KIAG will be near the southwestern edge of this stratus, and may hold onto mainly VFR overnight. The low stratus will erode Sunday morning, with most areas seeing temporary improvement to VFR. Another area of low stratus will advect northward into Western NY during the afternoon, then spread northeast across the remainder of the area Sunday evening. This will bring a return to widespread MVFR CIGS, with some IFR developing across higher terrain by late afternoon or early evening. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...A low chance of rain/snow showers east of Lake Ontario Sunday night and Monday night. Otherwise, periods of MVFR/IFR CIGS in stratus. Wednesday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain and/or snow becoming likely. Thursday...VFR/MVFR, with pockets of lingering IFR with a chance of rain and snow. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure builds southward across the eastern Great Lakes tonight continuing a period of light winds and low wave heights on any open lake waters. A couple of quick moving shortwave troughs and reflected surface lows will cross the Lower Lakes Sunday night and Monday night, though wind increases ahead of such features will likely remain below small craft thresholds. A more potent system will arrive mid-next week with increasing westerly flow likely to bring small craft conditions to the western and southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP/Thomas/TMA AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Thomas