Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
028 FXUS62 KCAE 131047 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 647 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Gradual improvement from west to east is expected today as the coastal low near the North Carolina-South Carolina border moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air. High pressure will hold on through Wednesday. A reinforcing cool front will move through Wednesday night, with temperatures several degrees cooler behind the front. Another front may approach late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Rain will taper off with clearing skies from west to east. The final band of showers associated with this past weekend`s low is sliding east through the far eastern counties early this morning, clearing the area by mid morning. Clouds will gradually break up from west to east during the day as the low pulls further away. Northerly flow will filter dry air into the forecast area during the day as well. Downslope flow will push highs back up to near normal values in the low 80s in the CSRA to mid 70s east where clouds may hold on longer. Models are typically too cool in diabatic downslope situations so NBM forecast highs may be too cool. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Drying out with sunshine returning. High pressure will stretch from the Great Lakes into the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday, providing mild and dry conditions. A dry cool front will move through Wednesday night, bringing a few clouds but no rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Slight cool down for the second half of the week - Next front approaches on Sunday A surge of somewhat cooler air will move in from the north behind a cold front, with temperatures about 5 degrees cooler on Thursday. With the surface ridge right over the area Thursday night, clear skies, and light drainage winds, overnight temps should run as much as 10 degrees below normal. Temps will then begin to moderate for Friday and especially Saturday, before another cold front approaches late in the weekend. Plenty of uncertainty on timing this far out, however. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Improving conditions this morning, then VFR through tonight. While there is some remaining MVFR at the Columbia and Orangeburg TAFs, cigs should lift and be VFR by mid day as drier air moves in and subsidence helps to dissipate the clouds. Winds will generally remain out of the N/NE through the 24 hour period from 4 to 9 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR likely through the rest of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...