Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
668 FXUS62 KCAE 020519 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1219 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread rainfall through late morning Tuesday ahead of an area of low pressure. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as this storm moves through. High pressure then builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday before another system takes aim at the region to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall through mid-morning. - Rain end this afternoon, with mainly dry conditions through tonight. Early this morning: Regional radars showing widespread rainfall beginning to overspread the CSRA as deeper moisture beings to ride up and over the surface wedge. This rainfall will continue spreading eastward the next few hours, covering the entire forecast area by 06z. Rain begins light, but as the night progresses, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to occur. Rainfall totals through the night of 0.50-1.00 inches are expected. Lows this morning are forecast to be in the 40s across the area. Today and Tonight: Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will be ongoing at daybreak as low pressure passes along the South Carolina coast. Although additional daytime rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.00 inches could occur after sunrise through noon, the overall flash flood threat will remain low though some minor or nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. Guidance remains consistent with showing rainfall quickly ending from west to east by 18z, with drier conditions then expected the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight. Skies should begin clearing out later in the evening and overnight. Winds not expected to go calm, so even with some lingering low-level moisture do not expect any widespread fog formation at this time. Temperatures forecast to remain cool with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures should fall quickly at night, especially in locations that fully clear out. Forecast lows range from the upper 20s to the middle 30s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - High pressure brings dry and cool conditions for the short with Thursday being slightly warmer than Wednesday. The system from Tuesday is forecast to be well offshore by Wednesday morning, allowing for high pressure to build back into the region. In addition to the high pressure, we are expected to be under the base of an mid to upper level trough, which should keep temperatures several degrees cooler than average combined with dry conditions on Wednesday. The upper trough is forecast to move offshore while another trough begins to dig into the Southern Plains. As a result, flow aloft is expected to become more southwesterly, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures, closer to average, on Thursday along with an increase in moisture. Meanwhile, the next system is anticipated to develop ahead of the trough digging into the Southern Plains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Increasing confidence in another round of rainfall to end the week. - Temperature fluctuations continue due to continued progressive pattern. The aforementioned trough and developing system are forecast to move eastward toward the region early Friday, with rain looking likely to spread across the forecast area through the day. The track of this system is setting up to be similar to today`s system, according to the latest guidance. With rain approaching early on Friday, we are not anticipated to warm much, if at all, during the day Friday. Therefore, Friday appears to be the coldest day of the forecast period. As of now, ensembles are showing a low-medium chance (20-30%) of more than an inch of rain once again with this system. After this system moves out, guidance is hinting at another shortwave moving through for the end of the weekend into early next week, which could bring another chance of showers to the area. Temperatures continue to fluctuate some after the Friday system, but remain cooler than average for the most part. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deteriorating conditions tonight as widespread rainfall moves into the region. Widespread mvfr ceilings across the region as rainfall begins to overspread the taf sites. This area of rain will persist through late morning Tuesday, along with the low ceilings. Ceilings should drop to ifr by sunrise, and can not rule out a period lifr ceilings and ifr visibilities with the heaviest rainfall. These conditions will persist through much of the morning hours. Rainfall will be pushing east of the area towards 18z, with some lifting of ceilings back into mvfr through late afternoon. Additional lifting and possible scattering out of the clouds will continue after 00z through 06z, with a return to vfr expected during that timeframe. Winds should generally remain northeasterly through this morning, then begin to turn more westerly by early afternoon as the rain moves east and the wedge begins to break. Speeds should remain less than 10 kts. Although there will still be lingering low-level moisture, winds are forecast to remain strong enough through the night to keep the threat of widespread fog low, although some patchy fog could occur in sheltered areas. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly vfr through mid-week, then additional restrictions possible late in the week with the next system. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$