174
FXUS62 KCAE 170044
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
744 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming week. The next significant chance for rain arrives late
Friday or Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler tonight, temperatures near normal.

The dry front is pushing through the forecast area this
evening. Cool air and dewpoints in the 20s will quickly filter
into the region as winds become northwesterly. The pressure
gradient weakens behind the front which will lead to light winds
through the night. Cold advection and radiational cooling will
allow lows to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry high pressure fills in with low dew points and humidity.

Deep dry advection is expected throughout the day Monday as
northwesterly flow builds in aloft behind the dry front from
Sunday. Winds will be persistent out of the northwest early,
but become relatively light compared to Sunday as the pressure
gradient quickly weakens as the high fills in by the afternoon.
Temps will run a bit cooler Monday thanks to some weak cold
advection, but still climbing into the upper 60`s. The warmer
trend starts Tuesday as the surface high shifts offshore and
allows southerly component flow to develop ahead of a quick
moving low and surface front; moisture still remains too low for
any notable precip chances with this front. Temps will climb
into the low 70`s as south- southeast winds pick up in the
afternoon. This front will weaken and not quite make through the
area, stalling across the area and keeping some elevated dew
points and PWAT`s in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week.

Ridging will build through the middle and end of week with above
heights and temps filling in across the region, downstream of an
amplifying trough in the central US; EC EFI and NAEFS highlight
the expected pattern well with 90th+ percentile height and temp
anomalies by the end of the week. Moisture and PWAT`s will
remain somewhat elevated through the end of the week as
southwesterly continues deep advection into the region, but
there isn`t a reservoir of deep moisture nearby. So we won`t see
truly anomalous moisture advection until next weekend, ahead of
the next stronger low pressure system. This is also the next
best chance for any notable precip chances across the region.
NAEFS and EC guidance however remains very inconsistent over the
progression of this next system with a fairly complex synoptic
pattern setting up over the CONUS, with numerous cut off lows
meandering under a broad ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected through the TAF period.

High pressure moves into the region tonight and tomorrow,
leading to mainly clear skies. Northwest winds around 5-7 kts to
begin the TAF period, diminish and are expected to become light
and variable from about 06z through the rest of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through
mid-week with dry air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$