Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
309 FXUS62 KCAE 061148 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 648 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather then continues into the weekend and potentially into early next week. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period while temperatures remain below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Periods of light to moderate rain today, especially south and east of I-20, followed by clearing skies from northwest to southeast. - Trapped low-level moisture may result in fog development towards daybreak Sunday. A moisture gradient will set up across the FA today with PWATs at daybreak ranging from 0.6 inches in the northwest to around 1 inch in the southeast. With this in mind, precipitation should be focused south and east of I-20. Precipitation then ends from northwest to southeast as drier air pushes into the region. While there may be some initial clearing during the evening and overnight hours, the latest guidance is suggesting that trapped low-level moisture will lead to fog development later tonight. In terms of temperature, highs will struggle to reach the upper mid-40s to near 50 degrees during the day but should radiate effectively for at least a few hours at night with forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Mostly dry and continued cool Sunday - Increased chances of rain and colder on Monday The forecast area looks to be between shortwaves on Sunday with the area in the wake of the passing shortwave from Saturday and drier air over the region as PWATs will be well below an inch. High pressure remains entrenched across the Carolinas and with extensive cloud cover remaining in place expect high temperatures to continue to be below normal with highs in the lower 50s. Another shortwave will approach the forecast area Sunday night and cross the area on Monday. PWATs rise back to near normal ahead of the shortwave and the combination of increased moisture and strong upper forcing could result in some light rain moving across the forecast area late Sunday night through Monday. Rainfall totals look to be relatively light with most locations seeing a quarter inch or less of rain. As the trough axis crosses the region on Monday, a cold front will push through the region before surface high pressure settles over the area by Tuesday morning. Temperatures on Monday will be slightly colder than Sunday with in situ wedging and widespread clouds followed by a cold night Monday night with lows falling below freezing ranging from the mid 20s northern Midlands to the upper 20s and lower 30s in the CSRA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Generally dry with some moderation in temperatures - Breezy with a dry frontal passage late in the week The long term forecast generally features dry weather and moderating temperatures back to near normal. Ensemble guidance in good agreement with LREF mean 500mb heights showing a mean upper trough across the eastern part of the country with upper ridging building into southern CA and the Four Corners region. Ensemble PWATs are well below normal on Tue/Wed then gradually return to normal by Thursday. A series of shortwaves will move through the northwesterly flow of the mean upper trough but limited moisture should prevent any precipitation chances through Wednesday but increasing moisture ahead of a stronger shortwave trough on Thursday may support some rain chances late in the week. Expect breezy conditions to develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary with 850mb winds around 50 knots and this is supported by a weak EC EFI wind signal. Temperatures will begin the period well below normal with cold high pressure overhead on Tuesday with moderating temperatures through Thursday as the surface high shifts offshore and a southerly flow develops. A front will push through late in the week bringing a return to cold temperatures again. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low Ceilings Continue at the Terminals for much of the TAF Period.... All terminals are reporting IFR ceilings early this morning. An area of light rain will impact AGS/DNL and then OGB during the next few hours, potentially resulting in brief visibility restrictions. CAE/CUB are expected to be mainly dry this morning barring patchy drizzle. Limited improvement is expected today with mainly IFR ceilings. Another area of moderate rainfall is expected in the afternoon for OGB/AGS/DNL, potentially reaching CAE/CUB though this is not indicated in the TAFs due to lower confidence. A brief period of improvement is expected this evening with clearing skies, though fog may develop at the terminals after 06Z EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain chances diminish Sunday and into the early week. Any rain may result in brief restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$