757
FXUS61 KCAR 171047
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
547 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track over Newfoundland on Monday into Monday
night. Low pressure will remain well to our north on Tuesday.
High pressure will then cross the region through Thursday. Low
pressure will cross the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

5:45AM Update... Updated aviation section below.

.Previous Discussion...
Key Points:
*Lingering wrap around snow in the north today
*Gusty winds today through tomorrow

Low pressure system to the northeast continues to track north
further into the Canada, while a high pressure system to the
south keeps a tight pressure gradient over the area through
Tuesday. With low placement to the east currently, snow showers
anticipated throughout the north through the rest of the morning
into afternoon. Only looking at a potential for an additional
inch or two around the north this morning. That being said,
recent rainfall and temperatures going below freezing poses a
risk for an unsafe commute in the morning throughout northern
and central Maine. If traveling today, go slow, leave plenty of
room between you and the car in front of you, and exercise
caution. There is a chance for some locally heavier snowbands
to move through, which could bring periods of heavy snowfall.
Overcast skies, with daytime highs in the mid- to- upper 30s.
Tight pressure gradient over Maine from departing low and
entering high pressure results in elevated wind gusts throughout
the day, with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible.

Later this evening, anticipating some wrap-around snow showers
in the Crown of Maine and far western Maine tonight through
Tuesday. Little to no additional accumulation expected with
these showers, however. Looking at overnight lows in the mid-
to-upper 20s throughout the region Monday night. With elevated
winds however, temperatures will feel like the upper-teens.
Expecting wind gusts around 20-25 mph throughout the state.

During the day Tuesday, continued snow showers lift through the
Crown of Maine. Daytime highs in the far north reach mid-30s,
and Downeast will rise in to the upper-30s to low-40s. Westerly
wind gusts still elevated, around 25 mph during the day. With
this departing low-pressure system, there is a chance for some
upper-level shortwaves to stem off the low and provide some
additional instability and lift, predominantly over the waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level disturbance begins to cross the region Tuesday
night, while high pressure builds at the surface. Expect
mostly/party cloudy skies north, mostly clear Downeast, Tuesday
night. The upper disturbance exits, while surface high pressure
builds, Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies north, mostly
sunny Downeast, Wednesday. High pressure crosses the region
Wednesday night/Thursday with generally partly cloudy skies.
Expect slightly below normal level temperatures
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Thursday night,
while an occluded front approaches from the west. Clouds will
increase Thursday night, with a slight chance of snow late across
northwest areas. Low pressure will draw the occluded front
across the region Friday through Friday night. Expect a
rain/snow mix across northern areas Friday into early Friday
night, with a chance of snow later Friday night. Across Downeast
areas, a snow/rain mix is possible early Friday with generally
rain later Friday into Friday night. An upper level disturbance
crosses the region Saturday, with high pressure building toward
the region Saturday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with
a chance of snow/rain showers across the north and mountains
Saturday, with partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
snow showers Saturday night. Expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny
skies along with a chance of mostly rain showers Downeast
Saturday, with partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
snow showers Saturday night. An upper level disturbance could
cross the region Sunday, with high pressure at the surface.
Generally expect partly sunny skies Sunday with only the slight
chance of snow/rain showers. Expect near normal level
temperatures Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: MVFR/IFR at northern terminals, with low
ceilings and snow showers. Snow showers will be getting lighter
this morning, helping to bring visibility back up. Gusty
northwesterly winds. Gusts up to 30 kts possible. Showers will
lighten up mid-afternoon, with ceilings beginning to rise and
scatter out by evening. Winds shift to the W/NW.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR/MVFR at southern terminals, with snow showers
moving through early this morning. These snow showers could
reduce visibility at times. Precipitation forecast to end this
afternoon. Ceilings rise and scatter out by mid-afternoon. Winds
from the N/NW with gusts 25-30 kts possible.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR north, VFR Downeast. West/southwest
winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to 15
knots Wednesday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Thursday night...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR late. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast.

Friday...VFR/MVFR early, lowering to MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR.
A chance of snow/rain early, then snow/rain likely north. A
chance of rain snow early, then rain likely Downeast.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest
around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning will remain in effect through tonight,
with elevated gusts and seas persisting through Tuesday. SCA
conditions follow this Gale Warning tomorrow, with gusts up to
33kts possible, and elevated seas up to 7ft over the outer
waters. Generally, continuous rain/snow over the waters possible
Monday into Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions Tuesday night.
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/CN
Marine...ASB/CN